Economic fallout from China's coronavirus mounts around the world (WP)
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/economic-fallout-from-chinas-coronavirus-mounts-across-the-globe/2020/02/13/7bb69a12-4e8c-11ea-9b5c-eac5b16dafaa_story.html
Economic fallout from Chinas coronavirus mounts around the world
By David J. Lynch
February 13 at 10:34 PM
The economic casualties from Chinas coronavirus epidemic are mounting as Asian and European auto plants run short of parts, free-spending Chinese tourists stay home and American companies brace for unpredictable turbulence.
Thats just the start of a financial hangover that is expected to linger for months even if the flulike illness is soon brought under control, economists and supply chain experts say. The Chinese epidemics aftereffects will probably cause the global economy to shrink this quarter for the first time since the depths of the 2009 financial crisis, according to Capital Economics in London.
Chinese factories had been scheduled to reopen Feb. 10, after a Lunar New Year holiday that had been extended for several days because of the medical scare. But with many workers unable or unwilling to return to employers located in a sprawling quarantine region, the resumption of routine operations in many workplaces has been delayed.
Caterpillar this week said most of its Chinese suppliers have returned to work. But Foxconn, a major electronics producer for Apple, said it will be the end of the month before even half of its facilities are operating.
The countrys links to the outside world, meanwhile, remain frayed. United Airlines and American Airlines said this week that they would not resume normal service to mainland China until April 24, almost a month later than planned.
The ripple effects of Chinas shutdown are spreading, with the auto industry especially hard-hit. Nissan temporarily closed one of its factories in Japan after running short of Chinese components, one week after Hyundai in South Korea did the same. Fiat Chrysler warned that it may shutter one of its European plants. Some U.S. manufacturers could face parts shortages in one to two weeks.
I worry that its going to be a bigger deal than most economists are treating it as right now, said Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz, the German financial services company. It will take time to restart all these economic engines.