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Sun Feb 2, 2020, 08:49 PM

Why incumbent presidents have the advantage in re-election...

Bear with me, but I've been thinking of this as a major, if not the main, reason why incumbent presidents tend to have an advantage.

And it's not just because they are already in office.

Rather, it is because their party is united behind them at the start of the campaign season. Their opposition, on the other hand, has to wage a long series of primary campaign battles. This cannot help but splinter the opposition party. And perhaps more important than that splintering, is the psychological effect it can have on the electorate. The opposition party is seen as fractious and unsteady. This not only demoralizes the opposition party when it comes to the general election, but discourages independents from voting for the opposition candidate.

I've convinced myself this is the major problem in voting out an incumbent president. And the times when the opposition has succeeded in defeating the incumbent seems to be mainly when the incumbent is seen as weak and aimless. Examples: Carter in 1980; GHW Bush in 1992.

I'm not sure there is a good way to combat this problem. The GOP seems well aware of this issue, and has been busy shutting down primary elections and caucuses - in seven states so far. The Dems, so far, have little choice but to duke it out among themselves, and suffer the consequences in the general. Meanwhile conservatives seem delighted by the chaos on the Left.

Any ideas?

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Reply Why incumbent presidents have the advantage in re-election... (Original post)
Rollo Feb 2020 OP
csziggy Feb 2020 #1
Phoenix61 Feb 2020 #2
Butterflylady Feb 2020 #3
Rollo Feb 2020 #4
albacore Feb 2020 #5

Response to Rollo (Original post)

Sun Feb 2, 2020, 08:56 PM

1. I refuse to support primary candidates

I will not chose one or donate money to any of the primary candidates. If I am polled I will give opinions but I will NOT provide money for the leaders of our party (or those who pretend to be part of our party) to form a circular firing squad.

We hurt ourselves more than we hurt the opposition with the way primaries are run. There has to be a better way to select candidates, especially now that the DNC has made vast amounts of money necessary to be included.

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Response to Rollo (Original post)

Sun Feb 2, 2020, 08:58 PM

2. There is no "chaos" on the left.

We are deciding who will best represent us then we will all, every single last one of us, GOTV for our Dem candidate. We are on to those who would divide us and the psy-ops of those who would destroy us. We. Will. Prevail.

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Response to Phoenix61 (Reply #2)

Sun Feb 2, 2020, 09:07 PM

3. Can't agree more.

You can't bunch lard ass in with other incumbent presidents. Your making him sound normal and there is nothing normal about him.

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Response to Phoenix61 (Reply #2)

Sun Feb 2, 2020, 11:05 PM

4. Doesn't matter...

The cons see it as chaos on the Left, and they are celebrating every squabble.

You think they aren't thrilled with Hillary butting in?

You think they don't notice her getting booed at a meeting?

Sure, we don't see it as chaos, we see it as normal electioneering. But don't forget that Trump has his nomination sewed up and is capitalizing on painting the Dems in the worst possible light.

Of course he's not normal, but that doesn't really matter if he succeeds in making the Dems look bad. Remember, the electorate en masse generally acts like an idiot.

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Response to Rollo (Original post)

Sun Feb 2, 2020, 11:17 PM

5. This...

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