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Thu Jan 30, 2020, 02:31 PM

The Wuhan coronavirus (the Wuhan Flu sounds catchy) infection curve

From 278 infections on January 20 to 7700 yesterday (as reported by Johns Hopkins at https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6), the infection rate increase has been virtually constant at 45% per day.

The correlation of the calculated curve with the actual observations using either the CORREL or PEARSON function in Excel is 0.9933

If nothing interrupts the contagion (i.e the curve holds its 45%/day increase) there would be about one million infections by February 11 - less than two weeks from now.

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Arrow 6 replies Author Time Post
Reply The Wuhan coronavirus (the Wuhan Flu sounds catchy) infection curve (Original post)
The_jackalope Jan 2020 OP
Amishman Jan 2020 #1
Blues Heron Jan 2020 #2
The_jackalope Jan 2020 #4
The_jackalope Jan 2020 #3
ecstatic Jan 2020 #5
The_jackalope Jan 2020 #6

Response to The_jackalope (Original post)

Thu Jan 30, 2020, 02:53 PM

1. Captain Tripps knows Kung Flu

The walkin' dude is coming

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Response to The_jackalope (Original post)

Thu Jan 30, 2020, 03:08 PM

2. And 25 days after that we're up over 10 billion

It's going to level off one way or another

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Response to Blues Heron (Reply #2)

Thu Jan 30, 2020, 03:19 PM

4. Yes, it will level off.

I hope it reaches a limit before it runs out of food (i.e. us.)

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Response to The_jackalope (Original post)

Thu Jan 30, 2020, 03:13 PM

3. And the death rate:

The current death rate is 2.22% of the infections. even at that low rate, given a 45%/day infection rate increase by Feb 11 we could be seeing ~6800 deaths per day, a count that would also be rising by 45% a day.

I hope something happens to interrupt the spread. That's where the real problem is. A low death rate with a high infection rate eventually becomes a global catastrophe. We'd better pray that we can get a fence around this thing before it starts establishing significant international toeholds.

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Response to The_jackalope (Original post)

Thu Jan 30, 2020, 03:21 PM

5. Possibly, and I know I suck at statistics but

How are they distinguishing between cases in which the virus was already present but unidentified versus actual new cases?

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Response to ecstatic (Reply #5)

Thu Jan 30, 2020, 03:26 PM

6. On a 45%/day exponential curve, that doesn't matter much.

Any such error is swamped by the verified new cases in a matter of a few days.

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