Thu Jan 30, 2020, 02:31 PM

The Wuhan coronavirus (the Wuhan Flu sounds catchy) infection curve

From 278 infections on January 20 to 7700 yesterday (as reported by Johns Hopkins at https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6), the infection rate increase has been virtually constant at 45% per day.

The correlation of the calculated curve with the actual observations using either the CORREL or PEARSON function in Excel is 0.9933

If nothing interrupts the contagion (i.e the curve holds its 45%/day increase) there would be about one million infections by February 11 - less than two weeks from now.

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6 replies	Author	Time	Post
The Wuhan coronavirus (the Wuhan Flu sounds catchy) infection curve (Original post)	The_jackalope	Jan 2020	OP
Captain Tripps knows Kung Flu	Amishman	Jan 2020	#1
And 25 days after that we're up over 10 billion	Blues Heron	Jan 2020	#2
Yes, it will level off.	The_jackalope	Jan 2020	#4
And the death rate:	The_jackalope	Jan 2020	#3
Possibly, and I know I suck at statistics but	ecstatic	Jan 2020	#5
On a 45%/day exponential curve, that doesn't matter much.	The_jackalope	Jan 2020	#6

Response to The_jackalope (Original post)

Thu Jan 30, 2020, 02:53 PM

Amishman (3,356 posts)

1. Captain Tripps knows Kung Flu

The walkin' dude is coming

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Response to The_jackalope (Original post)

Thu Jan 30, 2020, 03:08 PM

Blues Heron (2,887 posts)

2. And 25 days after that we're up over 10 billion

It's going to level off one way or another

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Response to Blues Heron (Reply #2)

Thu Jan 30, 2020, 03:19 PM

The_jackalope (1,660 posts)

4. Yes, it will level off.

I hope it reaches a limit before it runs out of food (i.e. us.)

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Response to The_jackalope (Original post)

Thu Jan 30, 2020, 03:13 PM

The_jackalope (1,660 posts)

3. And the death rate:

The current death rate is 2.22% of the infections. even at that low rate, given a 45%/day infection rate increase by Feb 11 we could be seeing ~6800 deaths per day, a count that would also be rising by 45% a day.

I hope something happens to interrupt the spread. That's where the real problem is. A low death rate with a high infection rate eventually becomes a global catastrophe. We'd better pray that we can get a fence around this thing before it starts establishing significant international toeholds.

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Response to The_jackalope (Original post)

Thu Jan 30, 2020, 03:21 PM

ecstatic (28,381 posts)

5. Possibly, and I know I suck at statistics but

How are they distinguishing between cases in which the virus was already present but unidentified versus actual new cases?

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Response to ecstatic (Reply #5)

Thu Jan 30, 2020, 03:26 PM

The_jackalope (1,660 posts)

6. On a 45%/day exponential curve, that doesn't matter much.

Any such error is swamped by the verified new cases in a matter of a few days.

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