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Fri Jan 10, 2020, 12:19 AM

Aussie fires update. Conditions worsening.

First, have a look at the Bureau of Meteorology rain radar for Victoria.

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR021.loop.shtml#skip

Right now, I'm directly under the middle of the big rain band. It's heading east with the gale force winds that accompany a strong front from the west. There's a minor cyclone over NW westerns australia which is driving this front.

The little arrows are wind direction. Right now, there is a hot northerly over the main fires, which are toward left of map on the coast but extending a long way inland in mountainous, forested country. When those winds swing around to the west, the fires will start burning back towards the coast and the most heavily populated places.

Hopefully the rain will be heavy and provide some relief from the fires. I'm terrified of what happens in the next couple of hours.

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Arrow 13 replies Author Time Post
Reply Aussie fires update. Conditions worsening. (Original post)
canetoad Jan 10 OP
uppityperson Jan 10 #1
alittlelark Jan 10 #2
StarryNite Jan 10 #3
Demovictory9 Jan 10 #4
Hekate Jan 10 #5
KY_EnviroGuy Jan 10 #6
canetoad Jan 10 #7
KY_EnviroGuy Jan 10 #12
canetoad Jan 10 #13
greytdemocrat Jan 10 #8
TygrBright Jan 10 #9
canetoad Jan 10 #10
TygrBright Jan 10 #11

Response to canetoad (Original post)

Fri Jan 10, 2020, 12:39 AM

1. Bah to the winds.

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Response to canetoad (Original post)

Fri Jan 10, 2020, 12:42 AM

2. I can barely type a response.... the pain is ethereal and surreal

I am in pain from an unimaginably horrendous situation thousands of miles from me.

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Response to alittlelark (Reply #2)

Fri Jan 10, 2020, 12:44 AM

3. You put my feelings into words.

It's so heartbreaking.

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Response to canetoad (Original post)

Fri Jan 10, 2020, 12:45 AM

4. i hope the rains come soon

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Response to canetoad (Original post)

Fri Jan 10, 2020, 01:04 AM

5. Canetoad...

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Response to canetoad (Original post)

Fri Jan 10, 2020, 01:17 AM

6. Here's the radar loop for the whole of Australia...

found available on the page Canetoad posted.

Link: http://www.bom.gov.au/products/national_radar_sat.loop.shtml

Rain rates look very light but it's better than nothing......

And, here's a temperature map for Friday:

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=T&level=2m&tz=AEDT&area=Au&model=CG&chartSubmit=Refresh+View

Note: You can click on the day and time on that calendar scale above the map to see forecast temperatures. It's showing temps around 50 deg-C tomorrow in the interior.

Thanks for posting, Canetoad!

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Response to KY_EnviroGuy (Reply #6)

Fri Jan 10, 2020, 01:25 AM

7. Thanks for that KY_EnviroGuy

I spend hours digging around on the BoM site. Some fascinating stuff.

Apart from El Nino/La Nina, SE Australia is affected by two other big climate patterns; the Indian Ocean Dipole and the Southern Annular Mode. Both have been in a phase that has seen greatly reduced rainfall in this area. The Bureau has advised that they are both returning to normal and the chance of some rain is increasing.

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Response to canetoad (Reply #7)

Fri Jan 10, 2020, 02:53 AM

12. Interesting, Canetoad and glad to hear things will get better before long.

Climate and weather are an interesting hobby but I have too many others to give those much time, although as a retired engineer I love studying most everything.

Just wondering: what sort of threats are you seeing predicted for post-fire runoff dangers relating to pollution of rivers and other drinking water supplies, along with the danger of flash flooding and mudslides?

KY.......

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Response to KY_EnviroGuy (Reply #12)

Fri Jan 10, 2020, 03:07 AM

13. It's hard to say what will happen

Because bushfires generally happen towards the end of summer in Jan/Feb when everything is tinder dry. This early fire season is an anomaly. I can't recall any instances of mudslides such as those in California - but there's always a first time.

I think the main water supplies for Melbourne and surrounds are pretty safe - not so much the east of the state. The Murray River - biggest in Australia, originates up in the fire zone and is the northern boundary of most of Victoria, culminating in seasonal wetlands in South Australia. That could be a big worry for the wildlife and also farmers who rely on the water.

It's pouring here - I'm on the mainland coast, just about due north of Burnie in Tasmania, so the rain will probably stop soon. Wind seems to have settled into a westerly, so with a bit of luck the fire zones will have a good soaking in a couple of hours.

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Response to canetoad (Original post)

Fri Jan 10, 2020, 02:29 AM

8. Stay alert

And move/run if conditions warrant it.

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Response to canetoad (Original post)

Fri Jan 10, 2020, 02:31 AM

9. Hoping you get the rain AND the winds (or lack of) you need...

I cannot even imagine how scary and painful this must be for you and everyone there.

You're in my heart- you, canetoad, and all your neighbors, and the critters and the growing things and all the amazing life on that amazing continent.

Well, except for those who enabled that asshole Morrison, I suppose. They're on their own.

I guess love and hopes and good wishes and prayers and all that insubstantial stuff aren't all that helpful against the realities in your face right now.

But they're what I've got, and they're yours.

worriedly,
Bright

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Response to TygrBright (Reply #9)

Fri Jan 10, 2020, 02:43 AM

10. Thanks Bright

Right now, it's absolutely pissing down rain here but it hasn't reached the fires yet.

Can't even look at stories or photos of animals, birds, reptiles affected by this. It distresses me too much. We have a Labor State Premier who was a gov. minister during the 2009 fires, and everything he learned from that, he's put into action; warning systems, evacuations. I have a lot of admiration for Daniel Andrews. Not so much for Morrison. Did you know he's an evangelical?

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Response to canetoad (Reply #10)

Fri Jan 10, 2020, 02:49 AM

11. Let's just say I was not surprised to find out about his version of "faith"...

I'm glad your state, at least, has some competent leadership.

Keep updating us, please.

May the rains keep coming, in abundance...

concernedly,
Bright

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