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Wed Jan 8, 2020, 08:13 AM

Yashar Ali: This is likely not over, not by a longshot (good read)

Yashar Ali 🐘 ✔ @yashar

1. I want to express this carefully cause I don't want to minimize anything that results in loss of life. But missiles flying back/forth in Mid East is all too common (something US can handle) & not what makes me nervous about the Soleimani situation

Dan Lamothe

@DanLamothe
U.S. defense official confirms that Al Asad air base in Iraq's Anbar province has been hit by at least six rockets tonight. Additional details unclear. But very credible source.


2. What makes me nervous is illustrated in the WSJ story. The Iranian government has always operated on its own timeline. If you think Iran lobbing missiles over the border is the kind of revenge they ultimately have in mind, you're wrong.

https://on.wsj.com/2QYlSMP
Iran has pledged to retaliate after the killing of one of its top military commanders. Tehran has retaliated before when officials and allies were targeted, choosing sites from Thailand and India to...


3. Example: In 2012, assassins kill an Iranian nuclear chemist (likely directed by Israel). Iran promises revenge.

Where does the ultimate revenge take place?

A month later in Georgia, India and Thailand where Israeli diplomats are targeted with bombshttps:


https://on.wsj.com/2QYlSMP


Where did Iran retaliate?

In Buenos Aires with a truck bomb driven into the Israeli embassy. That attack killed 29 people

Another attack two years later took place at the Jewish Community Center killing 85 people


4. Example: In 1992, IDF killed the Sec General of Hezbollah

Where did Iran retaliate?

In Buenos Aires with a truck bomb driven into the Israeli embassy. That attack killed 29 people

Another attack two years later took place at the Jewish Community Center killing 85 people


5. Those examples are pretty tight timelines for Iranians. The Iranian gov sees revenge as almost a generational thing...their timeline can be in months/years. Revenge always doesn't come via a show of force they take PUBLIC credit for.

6. So what I'm saying is all these people with their chest thumping, I would be cautious about what you see as Iranian revenge and unfortunately prepare yourselves for the kind of attacks that are unexpected, that don't follow a tight timeline, and show up where you least expect

7. If people think that this is it...that Iran has chosen to retaliate against the US for killing the second most powerful man in Iran, by lobbing some missiles across the border that didn't result in US casualties then I have a bridge to sell you

Katty Kay

@KattyKay_
If there are no US casualties, and the White House takes its time assessing reaping then there could be a window for de-escalation. Iran tonight saying it will halt attacks if US doesn’t respond to these rocket strikes.


8. I can't believe I'm seeing people saying that this was a face saving move by Iran and now that there haven't been any US casualties, that we should move on.

The level of naivety is astonishing.

Do people really think this is how Iran is going to retaliate?

9. Read Jake’s tweet...for those of you thinking this is just a weak response from Iran & that they’re terrified of the US mil, ask yourself if this how a nation that has funded attacks globally would respond to the killing of its most important General


Jake Tapper

@jaketapper
US military official & sr admin official tell @rabrowne75 and @PamelaBrownCNN that the *initial* assessment is that the Iranian missiles struck areas of the al-Asad base not populated by Americans though US is awaiting daylight to get a full assessment. Iraqi casualties reported.


10. That may very well be true, but if people think this is the only way Iranians will respond then they’re unaware of the reality. So while POTUS is taking the off ramp, the Iranians will sit and wait and do what they want and when they want to do it.

11. The problem is so many people have thought about this situation through the lens of conventional warfare. So they believe if there is no conventional warfare that the situation has deescalated.

But conventional warfare should have never been the concern!


10:26 PM - Jan 7, 2020



















12 replies, 1259 views

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Arrow 12 replies Author Time Post
Reply Yashar Ali: This is likely not over, not by a longshot (good read) (Original post)
Dennis Donovan Jan 2020 OP
Pacifist Patriot Jan 2020 #1
Dennis Donovan Jan 2020 #3
Pacifist Patriot Jan 2020 #5
Dennis Donovan Jan 2020 #6
kentuck Jan 2020 #2
Takket Jan 2020 #4
Dennis Donovan Jan 2020 #7
Dennis Donovan Jan 2020 #9
Dennis Donovan Jan 2020 #8
Duppers Jan 2020 #10
Duppers Jan 2020 #11
a la izquierda Jan 2020 #12

Response to Dennis Donovan (Original post)

Wed Jan 8, 2020, 09:24 AM

1. Was just about to post this, glad I did a site search.

Everyone needs to understand this!

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Response to Pacifist Patriot (Reply #1)

Wed Jan 8, 2020, 09:36 AM

3. The Iranians will strike "proportionally" to the assassination of their #2

If I were Pence, I'd find Dick Cheney's bunker ASAP...

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Response to Dennis Donovan (Reply #3)

Wed Jan 8, 2020, 09:38 AM

5. I'm thinking Esper should join him there.

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Response to Pacifist Patriot (Reply #5)

Wed Jan 8, 2020, 09:41 AM

6. Soleimani was their Pence / Esper / JCOS Chairman

All three should bunk up under the smiling portrait of Dick Cheney in his old "undisclosed location".

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Response to Dennis Donovan (Original post)

Wed Jan 8, 2020, 09:28 AM

2. There are a lot of naive people.

Unfortunately.

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Response to Dennis Donovan (Original post)

Wed Jan 8, 2020, 09:36 AM

4. Yes last night was a show for the cameras

But Iran is going to go right back to working in the shadows, supporting militias and terrorist networks, etc. basically exactly what Soleimani was doing already only now the attacks will increase. Eventually when everyone’s guard is down we’ll realize the pain of their anger.

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Response to Dennis Donovan (Original post)

Wed Jan 8, 2020, 03:46 PM

7. New info from Jennifer Griffin



Jennifer Griffin ✔ @JenGriffinFNC

· 39m
Replying to @JenGriffinFNC
Pentagon believes there was a political decision taken in Tehran NOT to kill Americans - that is why target at Al Asad chosen - large base with a lot of empty space. Even within that target, the Iranians chose to hit dirt rather than runways etc so as not to escalate militarily.


Jennifer Griffin ✔ @JenGriffinFNC

US military source: The Iranian response was for domestic political consumption and designed to cause minimal damage, that according to the Pentagon’s latest assessment.

2:05 PM - Jan 8, 2020


Not over, IMO.

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Response to Dennis Donovan (Reply #7)

Wed Jan 8, 2020, 06:23 PM

9. ...but Gen Milley disagrees?



Jennifer Griffin ✔ @JenGriffinFNC

Gen Mark Milley says he believes the Iranians wanted to kill Americans based on the targets the missiles hit. "I believe based on what I saw and what I know is that they were intended to cause structural damage, destroy vehicles and equipment and aircraft and to kill personnel."

5:17 PM - Jan 8, 2020


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Response to Dennis Donovan (Original post)


Response to Dennis Donovan (Original post)

Thu Jan 9, 2020, 07:11 AM

10. Thank you!

There are DUers who need to read this.

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Response to Dennis Donovan (Original post)

Thu Jan 9, 2020, 07:15 AM

11. And this is why I don't think this is just a bluff...

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Response to Dennis Donovan (Original post)

Thu Jan 9, 2020, 07:54 AM

12. Iran has existed as an entity for like 4000 years.

They’re not going anywhere and have all the time in the world to wait. If we had sensible leadership, we’d not be in this position.

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