I think Obama's chances of winning have improved...a lot...

[cynatnite]

Last edited Wed Sep 5, 2012, 11:33 AM - Edit history (1)

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I’ve been tiptoeing around this point, because I don’t think that our forecast model ought to represent the totality of our analysis about the election.

But if you look at the right-hand column of this page, you’ll notice that our forecast has moved toward Barack Obama over the past several days. It now gives him about a three-in-four chance of winning the Electoral College on Nov. 6.

I’ll explain a little bit more about how the model comes to that conclusion in a moment, but the intuition behind it is pretty simple:

1. Polls usually overrate the standing of the candidate who just held his convention.
2. Mitt Romney just held his convention. But he seems to have gotten a below-average bounce out of it. The national polls that have come out since the Republican National Convention have shown an almost exact tie in the race.
3. If the polls overrate Mr. Romney, and they show only a tie for him now, then he will eventually lose.

The first point is the simplest of all, but perhaps the most important. There is a lot of focus on the bounce that a candidate gets after his convention — that is, how the polls conducted just after the convention compare with the ones taken immediately beforehand.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

I'm getting every excited, DU!

[cynatnite]

1. kicking n/t

[Avalux]

2. Good news, and explains why GOP is saying Democrats aren't enthusiastic.

They're desperate to make voters think Obama is unpopular, which isn't true. Up is down in their world.

[ecstatic]

3. Crossing fingers. I won't feel completely at ease

until it's 12am Nov 7 and the election has been called for President Barack Obama!

[Zalatix]

4. Ramp up the GOTV and this will come true.