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Thu Oct 24, 2019, 01:22 PM

My Prediction: House votes to impeach. Senate fails to convict. Trump claims exoneration.

The Republicans in Congress are more concerned with keeping power than the Constitution. JMHO.

Also, expect many more less-than-veiled threats of violence/civil unrest/civil war if the President elected by a minority of the voters is removed/seriously threatened with removal. If by some miracle he is removed, also expect secession ("Texit" ) talk to loudly resume.

Unrelated: There should be a separate "Hearings & Impeachment" forum.

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Response to Algernon Moncrieff (Original post)

Thu Oct 24, 2019, 01:31 PM

1. They might censure him to throw half the country a bone...but I doubt they even hold a trial.

The more evidence there is that Trump is guilty the more likely McConnell to make sure it doesn't go to trial.

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Response to Thomas Hurt (Reply #1)

Thu Oct 24, 2019, 01:36 PM

3. I think McConnell wants to hold a quick trial now - yesterday if he can fire up a time machine

He knows he has the votes now and the voters have a short memory. However, if this drags on through 2020, not only do they have to defend the WH, but every GOP Senate race becomes a referendum on impeachment. He.does.not.want.that.

...of course, I'm working under the assumption we will have free-ish and fair-ish elections in 2020. Reality is anybody's guess.

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Response to Algernon Moncrieff (Original post)

Thu Oct 24, 2019, 01:32 PM

2. Agreed

However, my further prediction...the impeachment process does him so much harm he can't possibly steal another election.

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Response to Algernon Moncrieff (Original post)

Thu Oct 24, 2019, 01:37 PM

4. The day Trump is exonerated

 

He'll feel free to start another crime wave . He is either going to be booted out by the voters or re-elected and convicted by the Senate in another trial soon into his second term ...He is a career criminal who can not control his criminal impulses ...

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Response to ritapria (Reply #4)

Thu Oct 24, 2019, 01:40 PM

5. The only way a 2nd trial happens is if Trump wins, but the Dems take both houses of Congress

If the GOP keeps the Senate, McConnell will refuse to try on the grounds of 2x Jeopardy, even if all the charges are new.

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Response to Algernon Moncrieff (Original post)

Thu Oct 24, 2019, 01:55 PM

6. Sorry, I am not that cynical. Everything hinges on public support for impeachment.

Let's revisit your prediction after the public hearings.

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Response to Claritie Pixie (Reply #6)

Thu Oct 24, 2019, 02:25 PM

7. I agree. Let's make haste slowly and keep repeating those two little words we want tRUMP

to hear: Re Sign...Re Sign.

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Response to Claritie Pixie (Reply #6)

Thu Oct 24, 2019, 02:42 PM

8. I am that cynical, but I think you're correct

The needle has been getting pushed as more and more details spill out. Despite some truly herculean efforts by media outlets, the public is getting the message that Trump is thoroughly corrupt, a danger to national security, and needs to be out of office sooner rather than later. In this case, and for a while to come (three or four months at least), time is on our side.

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Response to Claritie Pixie (Reply #6)

Thu Oct 24, 2019, 06:57 PM

11. In a lot of Red states, a lot of people would need to sell their Senator on this concept:

the concept that their calls, letters, and faxes represent more votes than the PAC money they'd lose . Or, they need to really sell their Senator on the notion that they'd be more comfortable all around with President Pence. Remember that part of where things went sideways for Nixon was Agnew (his if-all-else-fails impeachment insurance) was indicted on charges completely unrelated to Watergate. Trump most likely does not have that problem.

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Response to Algernon Moncrieff (Original post)

Thu Oct 24, 2019, 02:48 PM

9. If he survives and gets reelected, I predict he will be criminally indicted in office

on state charges - It will be upheld that a sitting president can be indicted and he will be convicted then forced from office.

Bottom line is pay now or pay later.

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Response to Algernon Moncrieff (Original post)

Thu Oct 24, 2019, 03:12 PM

10. And then we do it again

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