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Wed Oct 2, 2019, 05:30 AM

Dunning Kruger effect

Just watched a video on YouTube about this, I’d never heard of it though I’ve observed the phenomena. Basically people at the very low end of intelligence or even other skills very often totally overestimate their abilities and think they are very smart. It takes some self awareness to begin to realize they aren’t and people at the higher end tend to underestimate their abilities. I’ve certainly met people like this but I’d say Trump is the poster child. He was so convinced he was being smart by releasing the transcript that showed his corruption so plainly and still can’t figure out why others can’t see that. I think the more he shoots his mouth the more he will damage himself. Aside from others like him and dedicated racists who will stick with him no matter what, there are some people who have stuck by him that are going to start seeing what a loser he is.

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Arrow 22 replies Author Time Post
Reply Dunning Kruger effect (Original post)
captain queeg Oct 2019 OP
Girard442 Oct 2019 #1
Pacifist Patriot Oct 2019 #3
Whiskeytide Oct 2019 #11
geardaddy Oct 2019 #20
muriel_volestrangler Oct 2019 #2
gab13by13 Oct 2019 #4
TheBlackAdder Oct 2019 #17
Collimator Oct 2019 #19
Pacifist Patriot Oct 2019 #5
IronLionZion Oct 2019 #6
mwb970 Oct 2019 #7
MyOwnPeace Oct 2019 #8
njhoneybadger Oct 2019 #9
rickford66 Oct 2019 #10
captain queeg Oct 2019 #12
kimbutgar Oct 2019 #13
maddiemom Oct 2019 #14
SWBTATTReg Oct 2019 #16
whopis01 Oct 2019 #15
captain queeg Oct 2019 #18
tclambert Oct 2019 #21
bucolic_frolic Oct 2019 #22

Response to captain queeg (Original post)

Wed Oct 2, 2019, 05:32 AM

1. Then there's the Dunning-Kruger-Godwin effect.

You're too stupid to know you're a Nazi.

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Response to Girard442 (Reply #1)

Wed Oct 2, 2019, 07:33 AM

3. DUzy

and totally on the nose!

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Response to Girard442 (Reply #1)

Wed Oct 2, 2019, 09:11 AM

11. I can go back to bed now. There...

... won’t be anything on the internet today better than this post.

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Response to Girard442 (Reply #1)

Wed Oct 2, 2019, 05:46 PM

20. Love it!

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Response to captain queeg (Original post)

Wed Oct 2, 2019, 05:39 AM

2. Professor Dunning himself wrote about its centrality to Trump's campaign in 2016

The Psychological Quirk That Explains Why You Love Donald Trump

This syndrome may well be the key to the Trump voter—and perhaps even to the man himself. Trump has served up numerous illustrative examples of the effect as he continues his confident audition to be leader of the free world even as he seems to lack crucial information about the job. In a December debate he appeared ignorant of what the nuclear triad is. Elsewhere, he has mused that Japan and South Korea should develop their own nuclear weapons—casually reversing decades of U.S. foreign policy.

Many commentators have pointed to these confident missteps as products of Trump’s alleged narcissism and egotism. My take would be that it's the other way around. Not seeing the mistakes for what they are allows any potential narcissism and egotism to expand unchecked.
...
Trump himself also exemplifies this exact pattern, showing how the Dunning-Kruger Effect can lead to what seems an indomitable sense of certainty. All it takes is not knowing the point at which the proper application of a sensible idea turns into malpractice.
...
But stretching it to governmental finance strains reason beyond acceptability. And in his suggestion, Trump illustrated not knowing the horror show of consequences his seemingly modest proposal would produce. For the U.S. government, his suggestion would produce no less than an unprecedented earthquake in world finance. It would represent the de facto default of the U.S. on its debt—and the U.S. government has paid its debt in full since the time of Alexander Hamilton. The certainty and safety imbued in U.S. Treasury bonds is the bedrock upon which much of world finance rests.

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/05/donald-trump-supporters-dunning-kruger-effect-213904

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Response to captain queeg (Original post)

Wed Oct 2, 2019, 07:34 AM

4. The wise man realizes how ignorant he is.

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Response to gab13by13 (Reply #4)

Wed Oct 2, 2019, 01:45 PM

17. The more one knows, the more one realizes how little they know.

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Response to gab13by13 (Reply #4)

Wed Oct 2, 2019, 03:55 PM

19. Great quote.

One of the reasons that I like Stephen Colbert so much is that he has cheerfully admitted that he is an idiot. And of course, he's not. But for all his cleverness and breadth of knowledge, he understands that he is capable of being an idiot, which is the standard state of all humanity.

Another comment that is sort of in sync with this post-- I read a headline about Trump telling his staff, "You're making me look like an idiot!" I laughed, and thought: But you ARE an idiot!

Trump making a statement like that reminds of the rather bottom-heavy woman who asks "Do these pants make my butt look big?"

Honey, it's not the pants; your butt IS big.

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Response to captain queeg (Original post)

Wed Oct 2, 2019, 07:36 AM

5. Anyone who wants to work at my company has to go through me...

before they get an interview with the manager of the department. I use an interview guide to make sure I ask everyone the same legal questions. It is designed to identify a number of things and the Dunning-Kruger effect is most definitely in there. Since we started doing that, our hires have been much better!

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Response to captain queeg (Original post)

Wed Oct 2, 2019, 08:00 AM

6. His lifetime of unearned confidence will be his undoing

he's so smug that he thinks he'll get away with it as he always has...until he doesn't.

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Response to captain queeg (Original post)

Wed Oct 2, 2019, 08:28 AM

7. I had a trump cultist tell me I was a victim of Dunning-Kruger just today.

In his post, he misspelled both "Dunning" and "Kruger".

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Response to mwb970 (Reply #7)

Wed Oct 2, 2019, 08:38 AM

8. Now THAT is funny!

AND - perfect proof of the effect!

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Response to mwb970 (Reply #7)

Wed Oct 2, 2019, 08:39 AM

9. That's hilarious

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Response to captain queeg (Original post)

Wed Oct 2, 2019, 08:46 AM

10. My ex-workmates and I have discussed this many times.

We are all engineers and one guy is considered a genius by the rest of us. He expresses his ignorance of science and math by continuing his study of published papers he finds. We all have witnessed others confidently doing something that we would eventually have to clean up. Every time I was given a new assignment, I would be nervous, not knowing how to proceed. I wanted to know more at the start than was possible. Of course there's a learning curve with any engineering task, otherwise it would already have been done. In politics, we see this phenomenon portrayed so obviously when Trumpers are interviewed at his rallies. They already know everything, so you can't change their minds.

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Response to rickford66 (Reply #10)

Wed Oct 2, 2019, 11:46 AM

12. I checked in with my ex coworkers; engineers

Feds at that. Engineers are generally conservative, but not stupid, and Trump was awfully unpopular at my work place. I asked how it had been going the last couple days because there are a couple Trumpers in the crowd. Apparently one of them complained because there were lots of open discussions about Trump and impeachment so an email was sent out telling people not to discuss politics in the office.

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Response to captain queeg (Original post)

Wed Oct 2, 2019, 12:10 PM

13. Flying home from Europe yesterday

I sat with an Italian citizen and 2 sisters from Pennsylvania. The one closet to me said she did not like Hillary because of Benghazi. I tried to keep a straight face but she quickly said she didn’t want to talk politics. We were enjoying a lively discussion about wine, travel etc so I bit my tongue. But I asked her if she has lost family and friends over the 2016 election she said they have agreed with those friends no talking politics or religion. But I did say to her that her news in Pennsylvania is more tinged with partisan talking points because she lived in a battleground state. And that in California I learn the real news listening to my local news than she probably would. She gave the government is bad because of too many regulations and I asked her how’d she feel if her drinking water was poisoned by chemicals because of no regulating companies. She brought up round up and we agreed it should be outlawed but it was going to be but the rules that were going to ban it were overturned in 2017. I never said the MF45 name. The subject changed about medical care and the Italian man showed me his EU medical card where he can get free medical care in any EU state and that all his medical info is stored on that card. I said we should have this in the US. She was silent. This woman was really overweight and had potential to have health problems down the road. She told me her sister couldn’t afford $12,000 to get a chemo treatment and died last year I made a big deal of taking a picture of the mans card to show to my friends at home.

But perfect example of the Dunning Krueger effect.

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Response to kimbutgar (Reply #13)

Wed Oct 2, 2019, 01:27 PM

14. Perfect example/illustration!

The cognitive dissonance hasn't surprised me for years, but still completely puzzles me. I often ask Hillary haters for specifics. Benghazi is usually the only thing that comes up. Most don't even know the details, but some will say "she abandoned a diplomat to be killed," or something similar (no details usually known). Other accusations are totally vague and unsupported. Most amusing: I haven't heard "Whitewater" mentioned in at least a decade although it used to be the major Clinton "scandal." I hope the present and future female presidential candidates appreciate the debt they owe Hillary. She's taken extreme flak and hatred since the day Bill was first in office and said that we were getting "two for one" as POTUS. Holy Crap, what a mistaken remark!

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Response to maddiemom (Reply #14)

Wed Oct 2, 2019, 01:36 PM

16. I just remind all of the supporters of rump that perhaps rump is going for bankrucpy number...

seven (7) now w/ his antics. This usually shuts them up.

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Response to captain queeg (Original post)

Wed Oct 2, 2019, 01:28 PM

15. I suppose you think you are an expert at it now...

(just a joke)

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Response to whopis01 (Reply #15)

Wed Oct 2, 2019, 02:50 PM

18. I'm perfect and tremendous and best ever

If I use a lot of (adjectives-don’t know what that means but someone told me) I must be smart.

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Response to captain queeg (Original post)

Wed Oct 2, 2019, 07:54 PM

21. It's a terrible thing to be an expert on the Dunning-Kruger effect.

Go ahead, just try to claim being an expert on Dunning-Kruger. Who's gonna believe you?

As for me, I know very little about it. (Ha! See what I did there?)

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Response to captain queeg (Original post)

Wed Oct 2, 2019, 08:27 PM

22. Trump seems to see the world upside down IMO

He is furious with leakers, yet declassifies everything. He thinks he's the greatest President ever, that he has accomplished so much more than any President ever, that he is popular with the public, that Adam Schiff in adhering to law is committing treason, that public release of a virtual confession should be received as exoneration. He twists reality to stroke his own ego and perceived perfection.

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