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Sun Sep 29, 2019, 07:53 PM

Next Social Security raise could be low, and that's not even the worst part

Social Security’s cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, likely won’t rise much next year, but retirees may not feel any change — especially a positive one — at all.

The COLA for 2020 won’t be announced until next month, but one analyst expects just a 1.6% adjustment next year, down from 2.8% in 2019. Mary Johnson, the Social Security and Medicare policy analyst at the Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan advocacy group for retirees, has been tracking COLA since 1996. She anticipated the 2.8% adjustment for last year the month before the Social Security Administration announced its COLA (and estimated correctly).

The 1.6% adjustment would amount to roughly $23 a month for someone receiving the average retirement benefit of $1,460, Johnson said. COLAs have been averaging 1.4% over the last decade, half of the average 3% it was between 2000 and 2009. Last year’s COLA was the first big hike since 2012, when it was 3.6% (in 2018, COLA was 2%, and in 2017, it was 0.3%).

But the significant drop in COLA between 2019 and 2020 may not be the worst part. Social Security as it stands bases its adjustment on CPI-W, the consumer-price index and buying patterns of young workers. But young workers and retirees don’t spend their money the same way.

“They will spend less on health care and perhaps housing, and those are the two expenses that really make a difference for older Americans,” Johnson said. Young workers might spend between 7% to 10% of their money on health care, compared with older Americans, who can expect to spend 12% to 25% on it, she noted.

Social Security benefits have already lost one-third of buying power since 2000, another Senior Citizens League study by Johnson found. The system as a whole could use some attention from politicians, who are still debating if and how to expand the program. The two trust funds that support Social Security are running out of money, and if Congress doesn’t act, they can be depleted by 2035. If that were to happen, Social Security would be relying on money coming into the system as opposed to revenue and reserves to keep benefits afloat — and therefore, beneficiaries would receive only 80% of the checks they’re owed.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/retirement/next-social-security-raise-could-be-low-and-thats-not-even-the-worst-part/ar-AAHSPsr?li=BBnbfcN

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Response to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Original post)

Sun Sep 29, 2019, 07:56 PM

1. Not very good news at all.

Thanks for posting.

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Response to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Original post)

Sun Sep 29, 2019, 07:59 PM

2. Running out of money because the gov has stolen (borrowed) close to $3-trillion

from SS that it never intends to pay back.

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Response to stopbush (Reply #2)

Sun Sep 29, 2019, 08:07 PM

3. This analysis assumes that money is going to be paid back

Even when the money lent to Bush to fight the Iraq War ($3T) is paid back, you are still going to run out of money without doing something else (like raising the cap for example).

We will not hear the end of the whining as the $150B/yr. is paid back over the next 20 years or so as well.

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Response to exboyfil (Reply #3)

Sun Sep 29, 2019, 08:25 PM

4. Lifting the cap is the easiest and fairest fix for SS funding.

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Response to stopbush (Reply #2)

Sun Sep 29, 2019, 08:34 PM

6. Exactly,.......all the damn money in the Social Security "pot" should be HANDS OFF

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Response to stopbush (Reply #2)

Sun Sep 29, 2019, 11:14 PM

14. It will be paid back via QE.

The dollars you will get won’t buy you shit, but you will get your fiat dollars.

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Response to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Original post)

Sun Sep 29, 2019, 08:25 PM

5. With consistent supplemental insurance and Part D premium increases

as well as increasing drug prices, we keep losing pace.

But Moscow Mitch can’t be bothered to do anything but pack the courts.

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Response to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Original post)

Sun Sep 29, 2019, 08:41 PM

7. Social Security is NOT "running out of money" nor will it be "depleted" by 2035.

God DAMN these idiots. They need to STOP telling people "social security is going broke!"

IT. IS. NOT. Nor will it ever be "depleted"

As long as there are workers in America, Social Security will have income and won't "run out of money". Even if Congress were to take no action, Social Security could pay 100% of promised benefits for the next 17 years, and more than three-quarters of benefits after that. Around 2034 there will be a modest funding gap requiring modest increases in revenues to guarantee everyone 100% of promised benefits.


https://socialsecurityworks.org/faq/

EDIT TO ADD from the same link/URL:

We can close the vast majority of Social Security’s funding gap by scrapping the payroll tax cap. Currently, millionaires and billionaires make payroll tax contributions on only the first $127,200 they make in annual wages.


It is NOT going to "run out of money" or be "depleted" unless TRUMP or some goddamned REPUBLICAN does something to it such that it becomes that way. Otherwise, as long as workers are paying into it, it will BE. THERE.

HOWEVER. The goddamned cap needs to be removed and the tax rate raised by a measely amount to cover that gap. Problem solved. That is FAR, FAR from it "running out of money", becoming "depleted", or "going broke".

These IDIOTS who write this bullshit need to do some research --- but they're too busy trying to convince Americans that "social security is going broke!" - that's RIGHTWING BULLSHIT.

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Response to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Original post)

Sun Sep 29, 2019, 08:50 PM

8. And some won't see a dime more since the cost for Medicare Part B is increasing...

Article is from April but I haven't heard of any changes yet so it's probably still going to happen. Those of us who get a low end won get any less, legally that can't happen, but we won't get any more either (again).

Of course those who get more will get a bit but subtract the extra Medicare cost out of that $23 a month. $15 a month more... if you're lucky... and that and more will be gone with increases mostly coming up once Dolt45's hissy fit tariffs kick in.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/medicare-b-costs-for-retirees-projected-to-rise-11555978694

Medicare’s trustees projected Monday that the standard monthly premium in 2020 for Medicare Part B, which covers doctor visits and other types of outpatient care, will increase by $8.80 a month to $144.30. A final figure is expected in the fall.


This is really going to hurt the lower income seniors, disabled and veterans who rely only on Soc Security to make ends meet and are unable to work even part time to help stretch funds.

Oh and to save it... Scrap the dang cap. To help Soc Sec recipients change the CPI-W currently used to CPI-E which is geared towards how seniors actually spend their funds.

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Response to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Original post)

Sun Sep 29, 2019, 09:03 PM

9. im on ssi, the ssa will find ways of taking back the raise .

when we had the cola last year , i got a letter from ssa stating i made too much and they dinged me untill i was brought down. i plan to visit them and appeal.

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Response to AllaN01Bear (Reply #9)

Sun Sep 29, 2019, 09:47 PM

13. SSI is administered by the Social Security Administration,

but its money comes out of the general fund.

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Response to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Original post)

Sun Sep 29, 2019, 09:20 PM

10. Any COLA raise is almost always swallowed up immediately by a raise in Medicare.

So each year seniors get farther and farther behind. I've already received my increase letter for my Part D. It's an even larger increase than I expected. I buy only the bare bones Part D supplement because I take no meds, so I guess they figure I deserve to have mine raised? Such logic. I haven't received any notice on how much my supplement policy premiums will increase.

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Response to llmart (Reply #10)

Sun Sep 29, 2019, 09:29 PM

11. Not always.

My first two years on SS that's what happened, but last year I wound up with more because the Medicare amount, at least for me, didn't change.

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Response to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Original post)

Sun Sep 29, 2019, 09:43 PM

12. I am under the 100% Federal Poverty Level and every time I get a SS COLA, they cut my Food Share.

When I got recertified for Food Share last month that if this keeps up I will owe them money.
Oh, I'm getting a whopping $28/month.

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