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Thu Sep 12, 2019, 06:33 AM

Let me try this again...Next week's Euro Model for the East Coast...

https://www.windy.com/?34.850,-71.982,4

And from the NHC....

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A trough of low pressure is producing widespread cloudiness,
showers, and thunderstorms that extend from the southeastern
Bahamas northeastward over the adjacent Atlantic waters. Although
limited development of this system is anticipated today, conditions
are forecast to become a little more conducive for tropical cyclone
formation over the weekend, and a tropical depression is likely to
form as the system moves northwestward at 5 to 10 mph across the
Florida Straits and southern Florida, and into the eastern Gulf
of Mexico. This disturbance will likely produce periods of locally
heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the Bahamas through Friday,
and across Florida during the weekend. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system
this afternoon, if necessary.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

4 replies, 883 views

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Arrow 4 replies Author Time Post
Reply Let me try this again...Next week's Euro Model for the East Coast... (Original post)
jpak Sep 12 OP
samnsara Sep 12 #1
jpak Sep 12 #2
Baclava Sep 12 #3
malaise Sep 12 #4

Response to jpak (Original post)

Thu Sep 12, 2019, 06:37 AM

1. oh dear... not again

...the Bahamas just cant get a break

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Response to samnsara (Reply #1)

Thu Sep 12, 2019, 06:39 AM

2. And it's "double trouble" by the end of the model run

But...the GFS doesn't agree and it's a long way out....

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Response to jpak (Original post)

Thu Sep 12, 2019, 08:57 AM

3. GFS model says Alabama, EURO says Carolinas, not much difference there lol

Wait n see, big time, give it a week

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Response to jpak (Original post)

Thu Sep 12, 2019, 10:02 AM

4. Formation chance keeps climbing

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite images indicate that the area of disturbed weather over
the central and southeastern Bahamas is gradually becoming better
organized while surface pressures are falling in the area.
Conditions are becoming favorable for a tropical depression or a
tropical storm to form within the next day or so as the system moves
toward the northwest through the northwestern Bahamas and toward
the Florida Peninsula at 5 to 10 mph. If this development trend
continues Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories will likely be
initiated later today. This disturbance will bring heavy rainfall
and gusty winds across portions of the Bahamas through Friday,
especially in portions of the northwestern Bahamas affected by
Hurricane Dorian. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.


I warned my peeps about this two days ago

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