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Tue Sep 10, 2019, 08:01 PM

Are we near a recession? The godfather of the inverted yield curve says it's 'code red'

Is the U.S. nearing a recession?

It’s the multi-trillion dollar question on the minds of executives and investors around the world. The inverted yield curve, a key predictor for financial downturns, has appeared in recent months at a time when international markets have soured.

Yet U.S. stock markets are still near their all-time high while U.S. retail sales appear upbeat. So some are arguing the yield curve inversion that has predicted each of the last seven downturns, is mistaken this time around.

But the academic who discovered the correlation between an inverted yield curve and the subsequent downturn stands by its predictive power in this particular case.

“I have gone on the record to issue a recession code red,” says Campbell Harvey, a professor of finance at the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University. “Growth will slow according to my model.”

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/are-we-near-a-recession-the-godfather-of-the-inverted-yield-curve-says-its-code-red/ar-AAH2kK7?li=BBnb7Kz

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Reply Are we near a recession? The godfather of the inverted yield curve says it's 'code red' (Original post)
Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin Sep 10 OP
Kurt V. Sep 10 #1
underpants Sep 10 #2
redstatebluegirl Sep 10 #3
davekriss Sep 11 #8
Iliyah Sep 10 #4
safeinOhio Sep 10 #5
safeinOhio Sep 10 #6
pansypoo53219 Sep 10 #7
ck4829 Friday #9

Response to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Original post)

Tue Sep 10, 2019, 08:04 PM

1. dean baker is my go to guy. he says no.

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Response to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Original post)

Tue Sep 10, 2019, 08:15 PM

2. 45 days from my probationary period is over

And then I'm a lock.

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Response to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Original post)

Tue Sep 10, 2019, 08:22 PM

3. Well he promised to make the country as successful as his business, guess he meant it.

I never doubted he would kill our economy.

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Response to redstatebluegirl (Reply #3)

Wed Sep 11, 2019, 12:20 AM

8. Republicans always do (crash the economy)

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Response to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Original post)

Tue Sep 10, 2019, 08:25 PM

4. Viewing from my standpoint, yes,

recession time is very near.

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Response to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Original post)

Tue Sep 10, 2019, 09:00 PM

5. Oct 24, 1929

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Response to safeinOhio (Reply #5)

Tue Sep 10, 2019, 09:11 PM

6. Oct 24 again falls on a Tuesday

this year.

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Response to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Original post)

Tue Sep 10, 2019, 09:36 PM

7. the rich can't buy as much as he low & the middle classes. its butter vs yachts.

of course the moron is gonna tank it.

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Response to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Original post)

Fri Sep 13, 2019, 07:43 AM

9. Yes

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