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Wed Aug 14, 2019, 11:01 AM

YIELD CURVE INVERTS: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/yield-curve-inverts-for-first-time-since-2007-102034083.html

The marketís most closely watched part of the yield curve inverted today, and if its record over the last half-century is any indicator, the U.S. could be headed for a recession soon.

Shortly after 6 a.m. ET on Wednesday, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond dipped below the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury as the 10-year fell 1 basis point below the 2-year. The yield curve inversion has a strong track record of predicting a recession; each of the last seven recessions (dating back to 1969) were preceded by the 10-year falling below the 2-year.

Ahead of the last recession, the yield curve inverted briefly as early as December 27, 2005, about two years before the financial crisis sent the economy into recession.

For over a year after that, the yield curve fluttered in and out of inversion. The last inversion, as measured by U.S. Treasury data collected by the St. Louis Fed, was in 2007.



By no means am I a finance guy, but even I know that this is a bad thing.

Sid

7 replies, 511 views

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Reply YIELD CURVE INVERTS: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005 (Original post)
SidDithers Aug 14 OP
CountAllVotes Aug 14 #1
MissB Aug 14 #2
2naSalit Aug 14 #3
Webhead Aug 14 #4
SidDithers Aug 14 #6
Johnny2X2X Aug 14 #5
SidDithers Aug 14 #7

Response to SidDithers (Original post)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 11:11 AM

1. Great recession

Not that the other Great Recession ever ended IMO.

& recommend.

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Response to SidDithers (Original post)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 11:12 AM

2. How fun.

Should be good times for the next year plus.

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Response to SidDithers (Original post)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 11:48 AM

3. Too much winning? ...nt

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Response to SidDithers (Original post)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 11:51 AM

4. There are several indications of an approaching recession

Hi Sid. :¨)

Uncertainty over Trump/China trade deal, and China & Germany economic stats released in last few days.
Fed prime rate lowered.
Mortgage rates down.
Farmers hurting by Trump's tariffs.
Climate change affecting agriculture

Note: Although I like Warren, I will vote for the Democrat's nominee.

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Response to Webhead (Reply #4)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 11:52 AM

6. Welcome to DU...



Sid

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Response to SidDithers (Original post)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 11:52 AM

5. Bad news all around

Germany's economy shrunk. Chinese factories are slowing down. Some poor earnings reports. Been a bad run.

Here's the thing, Trumpers think that Trump will just cut a deal with China and this will all go away. It's not that simple anymore, the damage that was done will last for years.

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Response to SidDithers (Original post)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 07:23 PM

7. Yield Curve explained...

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1161766324642750465.html

Okay who wants a plain-language explanation of the inverted yield curve? I will do it if there's demand.
Okay I dedicate this to @ClaraJeffery, an excellent journalist who does not deserve to feel economics pain.
So first the context: Why the bond market tells you more about the economy than the stock market.

We all hear about the stock market every day. The S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

What is the stock market? Think of it as a literary device.
The stock market is a way that people tell short stories about companies.

So for instance: When a stock is up, people are telling positive stories about that company.

When a stock is down, people are talking smack about that company.
When the "stock market" is up: Well frankly that is meaningless. No one knows why it goes up or what it means.

When it goes down, yes everyone is cranky. But we still don't know why. It could be literally anything. It's never ONE thing.
So the stock market is actually a tiny fish. The big fish is the BOND market. TRILLIONS of dollars.

What are bonds?

They are how companies and governments borrow money.

Every bond is a contract that says "we'll pay you back with this interest on this date."
Bonds ALSO tell a story about a company or a government. But it's a BETTER story, a novel rather than a short story.

That's because selling stock is pretty casual but borrowing money requires a lot of proof and documentation.

Bond investors are SKEPTICAL.
Similarly, companies and governments that sell bonds don't want a lot of pikers who run around selling loans. They want people to stick around.
So, to lure people to buy bonds -- to lend money to a company or government -- and HOLD ON TO THEM, companies and governments promise a higher "yield" to people who promise to lend them money over a long time.
What is a long time? Let's call it at least 10 years. So if you buy a bond in which the company promises to pay you back over 10 years, you make MORE yield than people who only lend money for one year.
It's also good to lend money over 10 years. It shows you have faith the company or government will be in good shape in 10 years.
Now let's go to Treasury bonds. There are three important durations of US Treasury bonds: 3 months, 2 years and 10 years.
To be clear, that means investors are lending the US government money over 3 months, or over 2 years, or over 10 years.
The yields should *always* be higher on 10-year Treasury bonds. I mean, you're not seeing your money get paid back for 10 years! You should be compensated accordingly.
So that is the yield curve: It shows short-duration bonds with lower yields than the long ones.
HOWEVER. (dark music) Over the past few months, yields have been higher on the LOWER END.

So buying US Treasuries for only 3 months paid more than keeping them for 10 YEARS.
And today, briefly, you could make more money buying two-year Treasury bonds than 10-year ones.
This phenomenon of getting paid more for a short-term loan than a long-term loan to the US government: It is all upside down! It's inverted!

Ergo the INVERTED YIELD CURVE.
So why is this specifically bad news?

Well because when the yield curve is INVERTED, usually a recession follows within around two years.

TWO YEARS.

That's been the case for the last 5 recessions. Inverted yield curve predicts recessions.
And that is why it bad news when there is an inverted yield curve.
I simplified this a lot, feel free to ask questions.


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