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Tue Aug 13, 2019, 09:04 AM

Economists put odds of economic recession in 2020 to about 20-33%... and blame Trump.

In 2018 or so, I saw two interviews with economic experts. One was more left-minded, one was an ultra-capitalist. They couldn't be any more different.
Both said that due to naturally occuring cycles in finance, a mild recession would occur sometime in 2020-2024. Both agreed that it will be worse than it would have to be, and both preemptively blamed Trump.

In early 2019 I saw a report how this next recession would happen 2021, maybe in late 2020.

Now we are seeing reports pinning the next recession to 2020.


Over just the last few days, economists at Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America all warned that Trump’s bitter trade war with China is taking a bigger bite out of economic growth than expected.


The collective wisdom now spreading across Wall Street is that no trade deal will be struck with China before the 2020 election; business investment will continue to sag; and a series of interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve won’t be enough to juice more growth out of an economy now in its tenth year of expansion — the longest stretch in American history.

“It makes sense for everyone to be downgrading, because everyone assumed we’d have some kind of trade deal with China by now and we don’t,” said Megan Greene, an economist and senior fellow at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government.


Overall economic growth cooled to a 2.1 percent pace in the second quarter after nearly hitting Trump’s goal of 3 percent last year following a round of tax cuts and higher federal spending. And he’s promised that he will win the fight with China.


Bank of America analysts led by Michelle Meyer in a note out on Friday increased their warning of a recession by 2020.

“We are worried,” the analysts wrote. “We now have a number of early indicators starting to signal heightened risk of recession. Our official model has the probability of a recession over the next 12 months only pegged at about 20 percent, but our subjective call based on the slew of data and events leads us to believe it is closer to a 1-in-3 chance.”

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