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Fri Jul 19, 2019, 10:31 PM

Just a heads up, Trump is potentially solid in the EC.

Let's be smart here and not assume again everyone everywhere thinks like we do, please?

Register voters and work your butts off, I beg you all. For all of us, for our democracy, for our freedoms we've all enjoyed. FIGHT! fight like we're about to lose everything, because we very well might.

Trumpís Electoral College Edge Could Grow in 2020, Rewarding Polarizing Campaign

President Trumpís approval ratings are under water in national polls. His position for re-election, on the other hand, might not be quite so bleak.

His advantage in the Electoral College, relative to the national popular vote, may be even larger than it was in 2016, according to an Upshot analysis of election results and polling data.

That persistent edge leaves him closer to re-election than one would think based on national polls, and it might blunt any electoral cost of actions like his recent tweets attacking four minority congresswomen.

For now, the mostly white working-class Rust Belt states, decisive in the 2016 election, remain at the center of the electoral map, based on our estimates. The Democrats have few obviously promising alternative paths to win without these battleground states. The presidentís approval ratings remain higher in the Sun Belt battlegrounds than in the Rust Belt, despite Democratic hopes of a breakthrough.
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The presidentís views on immigration and trade play relatively well in the Northern battlegrounds, including among the pivotal Obama-Trump voters.

There are signs that some of these voters have soured on his presidency, based on recent polling. There is also reason to think that white working-class voters who supported Mr. Trump were relatively likely to stay home in last Novemberís midterm elections.

A strategy rooted in racial polarization could at once energize parts of the presidentís base and rebuild support among wavering white working-class voters. Many of these voters backed Mr. Trump in the first place in part because of his views on hot-button issues, including on immigration and race.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/19/upshot/trump-electoral-college-edge-.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage


We need to be laser focused here. Please, I'm imploring of you all.

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Reply Just a heads up, Trump is potentially solid in the EC. (Original post)
herding cats Jul 2019 OP
RDANGELO Jul 2019 #1
herding cats Jul 2019 #4
littlemissmartypants Jul 2019 #11
fallout87 Jul 2019 #13
herding cats Jul 2019 #14
Dawson Leery Jul 2019 #2
herding cats Jul 2019 #17
myohmy2 Jul 2019 #3
herding cats Jul 2019 #20
Iliyah Jul 2019 #5
herding cats Jul 2019 #7
Post removed Jul 2019 #9
secondwind Jul 2019 #6
herding cats Jul 2019 #8
herding cats Jul 2019 #18
Duppers Jul 2019 #10
herding cats Jul 2019 #12
Duppers Jul 2019 #15
herding cats Jul 2019 #16
Rhiannon12866 Jul 2019 #29
videohead5 Jul 2019 #19
misanthrope Jul 2019 #22
videohead5 Jul 2019 #27
uponit7771 Jul 2019 #30
misanthrope Jul 2019 #21
herding cats Jul 2019 #25
misanthrope Jul 2019 #26
diva77 Jul 2019 #23
onetexan Jul 2019 #24
John Fante Jul 2019 #28
uponit7771 Jul 2019 #31
Gothmog Jul 2019 #32
in2herbs Jul 2019 #33

Response to herding cats (Original post)

Fri Jul 19, 2019, 10:49 PM

1. I fully intend to volunteer heavily in the next election.

That being said, any polls that I have seen from the swing states that elected Trump in 2016(Wisconsin,Michigan and Pennsylvania), have shown that he is in trouble in those states.

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Response to RDANGELO (Reply #1)

Fri Jul 19, 2019, 11:02 PM

4. Don't be complacent is my takeaway here.

Here's the facts:

The economy is good.

Swing states tend to be kitchen table specific.

They're also, potentially are still easy prey to Trump nationalist message.

I'm. Scared.

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Response to herding cats (Reply #4)

Sat Jul 20, 2019, 12:43 AM

11. Me too, herding cats.

I recently heard a prediction that he could lose the popular vote but win the Electoral College. I think it was on PBS Newshour. I feel like things are so scattered and chaotic with such a large field. I wish two thirds of them would drop out already. It seems so selfish to me that the real long shots don't just get a clue and conceed that they are just muddying the waters. I may just be anxious for nothing but I admit to owning my feelings and my gut is telling me things are not going well.

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Response to littlemissmartypants (Reply #11)

Sat Jul 20, 2019, 12:48 AM

13. Same here

 

They are only going to hurt our chances... the infighting will get really bad soon and will only help the orange monster.

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Response to littlemissmartypants (Reply #11)

Sat Jul 20, 2019, 12:53 AM

14. Oh, I hear you.

Choir, preach and all that. I'm with you!

I have a couple of candidates running I've been harboring close to my heart for years, I get it. I really do. As much or more than most, but this is some weird, scary times we're in now. Nothing is normal anymore.

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Response to herding cats (Original post)

Fri Jul 19, 2019, 10:49 PM

2. The electoral college was supposed to be the Democratic security bumper.

That was wrong. Democrats could win by 8+ points and lose the electoral college.
There is a good chance we will under perform in the electoral college next year.

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Response to Dawson Leery (Reply #2)

Sat Jul 20, 2019, 01:17 AM

17. All politic is local.

As true today as when it was coined before my emergence into politics. The problem is, we're still not listening. That's a fact.

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Response to herding cats (Original post)

Fri Jul 19, 2019, 10:52 PM

3. so...

...what are they saying?...with the conniving of trump, putin and the 1%, re-election is in the bag?

" His advantage in the Electoral College, relative to the national popular vote, may be even larger than it was in 2016..."

...oh boy, I'm having nightmares tonight...

...

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Response to myohmy2 (Reply #3)

Sat Jul 20, 2019, 01:30 AM

20. Don't have nightmares, get focused.

I'm sorry, I know some of us are tired and disenchanted. I get it and I'm right there with you, but it's gonna take all, of us to to fix this shit.

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Response to herding cats (Original post)

Fri Jul 19, 2019, 11:04 PM

5. Nope. The economy for EC states

are not very good maybe with the exception of PA.

Too early to claim this. Another article to dissuade people from voting.

Vote.

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Response to Iliyah (Reply #5)

Sat Jul 20, 2019, 12:26 AM

7. Seriously? The entire point of the article blew that far over your head?

This is the antithesis of an article trying to "dissuade people from voting." It's a wake up call to get off our dead asses, accept that we're not anointed in 2020 and fucking work to get the idiot out of office. Which apparently is warranted.

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Response to Iliyah (Reply #5)


Response to herding cats (Original post)

Fri Jul 19, 2019, 11:53 PM

6. He's down 10 points in Wisconsin, and is


losing Independents. Letís not forget that he won by less than one-half of one percent.

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Response to secondwind (Reply #6)

Sat Jul 20, 2019, 12:27 AM

8. Oh, right.

Nothing to worry about. Excuse me for for posting.

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Response to secondwind (Reply #6)

Sat Jul 20, 2019, 01:22 AM

18. Please, read the article.

Then reply, ok?

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Response to herding cats (Original post)

Sat Jul 20, 2019, 12:38 AM

10. We need Mueller to step up to the plate

Next Wednesday. It's been said, "Folks don't read the books but they do watch the movies."

His testimony better the explicit and without equivocation.

TRump's network of crooks stole the election and have since committed crime after crime.

Hopefully, many people will then open their eyes.

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Response to Duppers (Reply #10)

Sat Jul 20, 2019, 12:44 AM

12. I'm not sure there's a knight going to step up and save us here.

Regretfully, I suspect it's all on us and our work in swing states. Which I'm not even convinced Mueller will influence. They're more kitchen table politics.

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Response to herding cats (Reply #12)

Sat Jul 20, 2019, 12:59 AM

15. Good point!! It's GOTV in those states.

We need to beat the drums on Health Care Issues. The thugs cannot touch the Dems' programs.

Crazy idea: large numbers of Puerto Ricans should move to the Swing States so that they could vote. That'd do it. Democratic businesses should sponsor them coming.


Re: Mueller, my hubs thinks it's a mistake to count on Mueller too, mostly because he believes that Mueller will go back to his equivocation, with his thinking that speaking the blunt truth will be "taking sides."


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Response to Duppers (Reply #15)

Sat Jul 20, 2019, 01:09 AM

16. I suspect your hubs is correct.

It doesn't make me happy to say such, but I'm working off the theory "leopards don't change their spots."

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Response to herding cats (Reply #12)

Sat Jul 20, 2019, 05:02 AM

29. I completely agree, there is no way we can take chances

What sane person could have imagined anyone would vote for an offensive creep like this the last time?? But too many did and that's why we're in the fix we are now. We need to cross every T and dot every i - and work like hell to make sure it never happens again!

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Response to herding cats (Original post)

Sat Jul 20, 2019, 01:29 AM

19. Trump won in 2016 because

Democrats stayed at home. Philadelphia was down 100,000 votes from 2012. Only a few Obama voters voted for Trump. If Democrats turn out in 2020 like they did in 2012 Trump can't win. They are basing the turn out to be the same as 2016. I really don't think that will happen.

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Response to videohead5 (Reply #19)

Sat Jul 20, 2019, 01:31 AM

22. It also depends as much on where they turn out

The Democratic candidate would need to swing a few states.

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Response to misanthrope (Reply #22)

Sat Jul 20, 2019, 02:19 AM

27. I believe Arizona

Will turn blue in 2020.

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Response to videohead5 (Reply #19)

Sat Jul 20, 2019, 05:40 AM

30. +1, they want a horse race vs facts

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Response to herding cats (Original post)

Sat Jul 20, 2019, 01:30 AM

21. I have to admit to morbid curiosity

as to the fallout should such a scenario unfold, Trump losing the popular vote by nearly twice the margin he did in 2016 yet still squeaking out the electoral college win. Would it be enough to finally change the method of presidential elections? Would it endanger the electoral college?

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Response to misanthrope (Reply #21)

Sat Jul 20, 2019, 01:58 AM

25. How could it end the EC?

We're not winning the senate this next round, let alone with a super majority. There's no path to that. We're boxed into our current system. We need, desperately to be laser focused on what we want down the road. Because, despite fantasies, that shit isn't happening, anytime in our foreseeable futures.

Love and respect to you.

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Response to herding cats (Reply #25)

Sat Jul 20, 2019, 02:14 AM

26. I didn't necessarily mean in one fell swoop

Last edited Sat Jul 20, 2019, 02:45 AM - Edit history (1)

The Electoral College is in the Constitution, after all. It would take a hell of a lot of effort to get a constitutional amendment passed. What it could do is give momentum for change a big boost.

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Response to herding cats (Original post)

Sat Jul 20, 2019, 01:32 AM

23. Rethugs stole governorship in FL -- and "gov" DeSantis appointed Laurel M. Lee SOS in January 2019.

Previously, she had been appointed by ex gov Rick Scott as a judge for FL 13th Judicial circuit.

Gee, she don't sound like a Dem to me. Beware of Rethug SOS's

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Response to herding cats (Original post)

Sat Jul 20, 2019, 01:37 AM

24. Obama carried 28 states in 2008 & and 26 in 2012

He lost Indiana & North Carolina in 2012. Not sure if the margins will stay aligned but i'll try pasting the info from Wikipedia here (hate using them but this is fastest i can find and it looks fairly accurate).

Obama's 2008 numbers against Mccain: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_United_States_presidential_election

Obama Mccain
Electoral vote 365 173
States carried 28 + DC + NE-02 22
Popular vote 69,498,516 59,948,323
Percentage 52.9% 45.7%

Obama's 2012 numbers against Romney: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_United_States_presidential_election

Obama Romney
Electoral vote 332 206
States carried 26 + DC 24
Popular vote 65,915,795 60,933,504
Percentage 51.1% 47.2%

My takeaway here is our Dems nominee must carry at least the same states in 2012 reelection to win. Given the state of things it's very possible. But we must GOTV and get the disaffected Dems & independents out to vote.

What gives me hope is MorningConsult's tracking of the Idiot's net approval https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/.
A couple notables from the map graphic on this site:
- Shows that since 2016 things have changed from positive to negative currently. Note FL, NC & AZ, which all went for the Idiot in 2016, is showing negative net approval ratings for him.
- Georgia is shows the Idiot with a net approval of ZERO
- Kansas & Missouri are showing net approvals of 2 & 1 respectively.

I'm keeping up the positive thinking here. We have great candidates for the nomination. We can do this but we gotta fight like hell. Too much is at stake.









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Response to herding cats (Original post)

Sat Jul 20, 2019, 04:03 AM

28. The overconfidence of 2016 has given way to

a complete lack of confidence in 2020. Just great.

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Response to John Fante (Reply #28)

Sat Jul 20, 2019, 05:42 AM

31. There's no reason to believe 2020 will be more free and fair than 2016

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Response to herding cats (Original post)

Sat Jul 20, 2019, 07:08 AM

32. We have to nominate an electable candidate

I really believe that if sanders is the nominee, trump will win 45+ states

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Response to herding cats (Original post)

Sat Jul 20, 2019, 07:38 AM

33. Does this mean the only way to get him out of office is to start an impeachment proceeding and

stroke him out of office? If so, I'm up for that.

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