Why Texas May Be Turning Blue?

[DonViejo]

June 23, 2019 at 7:30 am EDT By Taegan Goddard

The Economist: “Between 2007 and 2016 a net 1m American residents, or 2.5% of the state’s population, left California for another state. Texas was the most popular destination, attracting more than a quarter of them. More Americans have left California than moved there every year since 1990, though immigrants still arrive from abroad.”

###

https://politicalwire.com/2019/06/23/why-texas-may-be-turning-blue/

[Traffic Interruptus]

1. Austin

Is like L.A. Jr. now.

Last time I had to go down there for business, that was the chief "complaint" (in lighthearted, casual conversations) of "locals."

The influx of Californians, that is.

I remember back in the 1980s there was an influx of Rust Belters and Midwesterners to the south when Reagan started busting unions and when manufacturing in this country was being dismantled.

[dalton99a]

2. Leslie seemed to be the only homeless person, now there are panhandlers at every street corner

[Traffic Interruptus]

3. Texas is famous for BBQ

and people need to eat.

they should do that at the golf courses and country clubs in rich areas too!

[TwilightZone]

7. There have been panhandlers at many major intersections as long as I've been here.

Twelve years and counting.

[dalton99a]

10. There were few before the growth explosion

and the encampments and tents were well hidden

[Ilsa]

12. I don't get it. I don't understand this.

Homeless people are dragging propane or charcoal grills around with them on freeways? Any reason why they'd hang out on hot concrete breathing vehicle exhaust? It's a picture that doesn't make sense to me.

[blogslut]

4. Personally? I'm not so sure that's it.

California is not a monolith of liberalism. Who's to say those folks leaving CA aren't coming to TX because they want to live among conservatives?

I bet a good percentage of Texas-California transplants happen because Texas has no state income tax and an overall lower cost of living.

[TwilightZone]

8. They're coming here because corporations are moving here.

And they're being transferred.

A lot of it is exodus from Silicon Valley, so it does tend to lean liberal.

[blogslut]

11. Yes and no -ish

I agree, corps come here because of the low taxes. But, as I posted downthread, I think the ethnic diversity of Texas is what will turn it blue.

I get what you're saying but I don't think an somewhat-higher influx of Californiansl is the prime reason Texas will turn blue.

[dalton99a]

5. Texans of color continue to easily outpace the white population

https://www.texastribune.org/2019/06/20/texas-hispanic-population-pace-surpass-white-residents/

Texas gained almost nine Hispanic residents for every additional white resident last year
New census estimates show Texas' Hispanic population growth continues to surpass white population growth, with Hispanics on pace to soon represent a plurality.
by Alexa Ura and Connie Hanzhang Jin | June 20, 2019 | 12 AM

The gap between Texas’ Hispanic and white populations continued to narrow last year when the state gained almost nine Hispanic residents for every additional white resident.

With Hispanics expected to become the largest population group in Texas as soon as 2022, new population estimates released Thursday by the U.S. Census Bureau showed the Hispanic population climbed to nearly 11.4 million — an annual gain of 214,736 through July 2018 and an increase of 1.9 million since 2010.

The white population, meanwhile, grew by just 24,075 last year. Texas still has a bigger white population — up to 11.9 million last year — but it has only grown by roughly 484,000 since 2010. The white population’s growth has been so sluggish this decade that it barely surpassed total growth among Asian Texans, who make up a tiny share of the total population, in the same time period.

The estimates come as lawmakers begin to sharpen their focus on the 2021 redistricting cycle, when they’ll have to redraw the state’s congressional and legislative maps to account for population growth. And they highlight the extent to which the demographics of the state continue to shift against the Republican Party.

[blogslut]

6. This, I think, is more likely turning Texas blue

For all intents and purposes, Texas is already a majority/minority state. We're also damned big, population-wise. Three of the ten largest cities in the US are in TX, plus Austin @ 11th. The more people you have, the more liberal things get. That's just science!

[TwilightZone]

9. The problem is turnout, particularly Latino turnout.

The demographic changes aren't resulting in political change as quickly as one might expect primarily because of that.

We're working on it, but it's been a challenge for a long time now.

[Ilsa]

13. A lot of Latinos vote a conservative ticket,

and I'm not referring to the Cuban-ancestor vote. It probably has more to do with following priests' and Pope's leadership.

[TwilightZone]

15. Latino vote is still heavily on the Dem side.

69/29 in the 2018 midterms.

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/11/09/how-latinos-voted-in-2018-midterms/

[Ilsa]

16. Oh, yes, certainly. I'm just saying

that the gop still has their hooks into a big percentage, although ccertainly not a majority.

[Liberal In Texas]

14. It's a combination of all these factors in the posted comments.

Additionally, in a radio interview on the "Texas Standard" with a family who recently moved here from California the biggest thing for them was housing prices. Housing prices in Cali are beyond crazy. I don't know how anybody is able to own a house in a metropolitan California city without a high paying job -- or two.

[Gothmog]

17. Texas will be a battleground state