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Sun Jun 2, 2019, 10:53 AM

 

New Poll: Massive Blue Wave Likely in 2020

2018 saw the largest margin of victory in an off-year congressional election in U.S. history --- 10 million votes in favor of the Democrats (who picked up 40 net seats in the House).

A new poll from the Economist/YouGov indicates that there could be a similar margin of victory for Democrats in House elections in 2020 (9 percentage points).

This is bad news for Donald Trump and his reelection chances -- and good news for us!


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Arrow 42 replies Author Time Post
Reply New Poll: Massive Blue Wave Likely in 2020 (Original post)
Vidal Jun 2019 OP
Renew Deal Jun 2019 #1
Vidal Jun 2019 #3
qazplm135 Jun 2019 #32
Vidal Jun 2019 #39
shanny Jun 2019 #2
Vidal Jun 2019 #4
ProudMNDemocrat Jun 2019 #6
calguy Jun 2019 #8
ProudMNDemocrat Jun 2019 #11
cannabis_flower Jun 2019 #13
Vidal Jun 2019 #25
Chin music Jun 2019 #30
ProudMNDemocrat Jun 2019 #36
Spider Jerusalem Jun 2019 #12
cannabis_flower Jun 2019 #14
qazplm135 Jun 2019 #33
Spider Jerusalem Jun 2019 #34
qazplm135 Jun 2019 #38
roamer65 Jun 2019 #5
LakeArenal Jun 2019 #7
FBaggins Jun 2019 #9
Vidal Jun 2019 #19
Norbert Jun 2019 #26
Maxheader Jun 2019 #10
Vidal Jun 2019 #20
Celerity Jun 2019 #15
Honeycombe8 Jun 2019 #16
erronis Jun 2019 #22
Honeycombe8 Jun 2019 #37
Vidal Jun 2019 #40
Scarsdale Jun 2019 #17
SWBTATTReg Jun 2019 #18
Vidal Jun 2019 #28
Vinca Jun 2019 #21
dameatball Jun 2019 #29
TeamPooka Jun 2019 #23
Vidal Jun 2019 #27
Scurrilous Jun 2019 #24
Iliyah Jun 2019 #31
Vidal Jun 2019 #35
Wounded Bear Jun 2019 #41
Vidal Jun 2019 #42

Response to Vidal (Original post)

Sun Jun 2, 2019, 10:54 AM

1. This is probably why there are 20+ candidates

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Response to Renew Deal (Reply #1)

Sun Jun 2, 2019, 11:07 AM

3. Yes, that's true

 

Most people are expecting a Blue Wave and a Democrat to win the presidency. Let's make it happen!

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Response to Renew Deal (Reply #1)

Sun Jun 2, 2019, 01:55 PM

32. exactly

people who are worried that we won't have turnout if we don't impeach or that if this candidate or that candidate isn't the nominee aren't severely underestimating the burning passion to get rid of this...thing in the WH.

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Response to qazplm135 (Reply #32)

Sun Jun 2, 2019, 03:59 PM

39. The Thing in the White House

 

I agree with you. That's a good way to put it. He is more hated than many people realize.

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Response to Vidal (Original post)

Sun Jun 2, 2019, 11:07 AM

2. problem is, with gerrymandering and voter suppression

 

and other similar BS we have to win by about 7 points to actually "win."

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Response to shanny (Reply #2)

Sun Jun 2, 2019, 11:09 AM

4. That may be high

 

You are right in concept, for sure, but I think the actual number is 3 to 4 percent. Also, some states have redrawn their congressional districts which may help a little.

Another big problem is Democrats are too concentrated geographically. This is why it will be hard to win back the Senate, which we really need to do.

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Response to Vidal (Reply #4)

Sun Jun 2, 2019, 11:15 AM

6. Hopefully a Democratic candidate for the US Senate can get through to those voters on the fence...

With the facts that the US Senate as is, is dysfunctional under Republican control.

Democratic candidates need to focus on important issues such as...Health Care, $15 an hour Minimum Wage, NO more wars, Infrastructure, Affordable Education, and so much more. Talk to the people, not over them. Ask them what is it they want Government to do.

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Response to ProudMNDemocrat (Reply #6)

Sun Jun 2, 2019, 11:37 AM

8. Isn't Joanie (castrator) Earnst up for re-election in Iowa this time?

With farming taking big hits thanks to trump's tarriffs, that should be a very winnable state for us.

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Response to calguy (Reply #8)

Sun Jun 2, 2019, 11:55 AM

11. Yup, Joni is a Trumper.....

She supports Trump hard core. Which will not go over well with Farmers.

Few farmers get subsidies for growing corn for Ethanol, but more are going under due to closed Markets. With Trump going after Mexico with tariffs, that is going to drive prices up for other produce we get from there, as well as Cars, appliance parts, etc.

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Response to ProudMNDemocrat (Reply #11)

Sun Jun 2, 2019, 12:01 PM

13. What's going to hurt the farmers most..

is when the prices start going up for parts on farm equipment.

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Response to cannabis_flower (Reply #13)

Sun Jun 2, 2019, 01:29 PM

25. Farmers are in a double squeeze and that will hurt Trump

 

As costs of raising crops go up, and prices from crops go down, many farmers will be losing money, so let's hope this translates into big gains for Democrats in rural areas in 2020.

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Response to Vidal (Reply #25)

Sun Jun 2, 2019, 01:36 PM

30. Many fields aren't even bothering to get planted it seems.

Corns supposed to be knee high by 4th of July, and I believe 2/3rds of farmers haven't even stuck seed in the ground this year. Relying on bail-out and crop insurance I guess. There will be no market to speak of.

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Response to Chin music (Reply #30)

Sun Jun 2, 2019, 02:52 PM

36. Even along the highway to Minneapolis....

The farm fields look barren. I did not see any sprouting of corn or soybeans at all.

Democratic Party candidates for the US Senate from Farm states need to drive this issue home that Trump is killing farmers, but wants their votes.

Farmers want Open markets, not tax payer handouts they are paying for.

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Response to Vidal (Reply #4)

Sun Jun 2, 2019, 11:55 AM

12. That correlates with another number in that poll: Rs have a five point lead among white voters (n/t)

 

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Response to Spider Jerusalem (Reply #12)

Sun Jun 2, 2019, 12:02 PM

14. Only 5 points?

Didn't they have a bigger lead among white voters in the last election? And an ever bigger lead in the 2016 election?

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Response to Spider Jerusalem (Reply #12)

Sun Jun 2, 2019, 01:56 PM

33. if that holds

they are well and truly fucked.

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Response to qazplm135 (Reply #33)

Sun Jun 2, 2019, 02:15 PM

34. Probably still enough for them to hang on to the Senate, sadly (n/t)

 

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Response to Spider Jerusalem (Reply #34)

Sun Jun 2, 2019, 03:26 PM

38. I don't know about that at all

I also don't know that it holds.

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Response to Vidal (Original post)

Sun Jun 2, 2019, 11:15 AM

5. 1932.

Thatís what we have to beat. It was an electoral bloodbath for the Repukes.d

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Response to Vidal (Original post)

Sun Jun 2, 2019, 11:21 AM

7. I'm ready...

Repulsives better hope that new Ark Experience floats.

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Response to Vidal (Original post)

Sun Jun 2, 2019, 11:44 AM

9. Not really what that says

Most people measure waves by the number of seats that are picked up.

Oversimplifying a bit, if we win by the same margin as last time we will get roughly the same results and neither pick up or lose any seats.

Thatís reasonably consistent with current expert expectations that we would lose about half a dozen seats in the House.

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Response to FBaggins (Reply #9)

Sun Jun 2, 2019, 12:53 PM

19. If we win by 9 percentage points

 

we will probably pick up a few more seats, nowhere near 40

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Response to Vidal (Reply #19)

Sun Jun 2, 2019, 01:30 PM

26. I agree

There were more low hanging fruit in the last election meaning republican house members losing their seats in districts leaning Democratic. Add to that the massive amount of retirements. The numbers will not be there this time around. If we could pick up 10-15 house seats it would be an awesome evening for the Democrats.

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Response to Vidal (Original post)

Sun Jun 2, 2019, 11:49 AM

10. Sounds like the attitude is still there...

Dems need to have a message..something to get people riled and thinking about how we're getting screwed over...new tax laws...wingers trying to take away healthcare...iran..wall..trade war...
Lots of targets..Lets go libs...



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Response to Maxheader (Reply #10)

Sun Jun 2, 2019, 12:54 PM

20. Healthcare and corruption

 

two big winning issues for Dems

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Response to Vidal (Original post)

Sun Jun 2, 2019, 12:20 PM

15. Men overall, +2 Rethug, women overall, Democratic +19, also all regions are pro Dem except the MW

which is Rethug +7. Also older baby boomers and up in age are Rethug +22.

If that also holds for Rump, then arffffff.



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Response to Vidal (Original post)

Sun Jun 2, 2019, 12:30 PM

16. As long as Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Israel are hacking and interfering, it doesn't matter.

The polls said that Clinton was going to win, although it would be close. Russia wasn't factored into those polls.

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Response to Honeycombe8 (Reply #16)

Sun Jun 2, 2019, 12:57 PM

22. Makes me think we should send pollsters to the other "interested" parties.

I'm sure USSRussia, Israel, MBS/SA, etc. would be happy to answer this question:

If you were to vote in the US Presidential Election in 2020, which of these candidates would you most likely support?
- TRUMP [__]
- PENCE [__]
- other []
Check here [X] if you'd like an automatic contribution to be made to your favorite (R)epuglicons.



Of course we'd need to factor in money/influence/blackmail coming from other in-country and foreign interests.

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Response to erronis (Reply #22)

Sun Jun 2, 2019, 03:07 PM

37. That would probably be more accurate. nt

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Response to erronis (Reply #22)

Sun Jun 2, 2019, 04:00 PM

40. LOL - Sad but true

 

nt

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Response to Vidal (Original post)

Sun Jun 2, 2019, 12:30 PM

17. The Democratic politicians

need to do something about election fraud, voter suppression. Paper ballots should be put back in place. The gop has perfected their dirty tricks too often. The way McConnell is acting, I think the fix is already in for the next election. He just keeps on doing his dirty work, regardless of what anyone thinks. He flatly refuses to even hold a vote on voter fraud, and foreign interference in US elections. SOMETHING is just not right here.

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Response to Vidal (Original post)

Sun Jun 2, 2019, 12:52 PM

18. Good. I can't wait to rip a new one in both rump and the repugs, who obviously have to resort...

to cheating and lying and on election interference on the part of other countries in order to win. The best laid plans of men and mice do oftentimes go astray, and I predict that those efforts in Nov. 2016 to get rump to win illegally have backfired big time, e.g., Nov. 2018 and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future (w/ the upcoming Nov 2020 election coming up especially).

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Response to SWBTATTReg (Reply #18)

Sun Jun 2, 2019, 01:32 PM

28. 2020 should be huge voter turnout

 

it was in 2018 and there's no reason to think it will go down in 2020, and this is bad news for Trump and Rethugs.

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Response to Vidal (Original post)

Sun Jun 2, 2019, 12:54 PM

21. We absolutely, positively must control the Senate.

I wish some of the multitude running for POTUS would consider Senate bids instead. If McConnell remains in charge (assuming a miracle doesn't happen and he's ousted by voters), it will do us little good having the presidency because he'll block everything.

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Response to Vinca (Reply #21)

Sun Jun 2, 2019, 01:35 PM

29. Yes indeed. Perhaps the field will thin soon and some will do exactly that. Hopefully it won't be

too late. I don't know how Presidential campaigns transition to Senatorial campaigns, but at least a core staff should be available.

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Response to Vidal (Original post)

Sun Jun 2, 2019, 01:08 PM

23. You think 2018's angry voters are happy now? It's going to be a huge Blue Wave. GOTV!!!

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Response to TeamPooka (Reply #23)

Sun Jun 2, 2019, 01:30 PM

27. In 2020, voters are still mad

 

about what Trump and Rethugs are doing, so it should be another Blue Wave

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Response to Vidal (Original post)

Sun Jun 2, 2019, 01:08 PM

24. Good news!

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Response to Vidal (Original post)

Sun Jun 2, 2019, 01:41 PM

31. From what I've been reading and hearing

Democrats have no excitement, enthusiasm, wherein the Republicans are gun ho.

Glad to see otherwise!

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Response to Iliyah (Reply #31)

Sun Jun 2, 2019, 02:25 PM

35. Where?

 

Where did you read that? I haven't seen it.

We do have to be careful of our information sources.

The media is making up stories to make it seem competitive.

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Response to Vidal (Original post)

Sun Jun 2, 2019, 04:01 PM

41. Sounds good, but no complacency...



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Response to Wounded Bear (Reply #41)

Sun Jun 2, 2019, 04:11 PM

42. When you listen to Pelosi, and others in the House

 

they are very concerned about maintaining their majority after the 2020 elections, and they are doing everything they can to make sure this happens.

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