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Mon May 13, 2019, 06:27 AM

In May 1930 the economic experts told Herbert Hoover to veto smoot hawley, and Hoover

refused, which led us from a moderate depression to a great depression.

Steven Roach is on Bloomberg discussing this right now saying history is repeating itself. Trump, like Hoover, is refusing to listen to the economic experts, and he believes we are heading in the same direction.

He also pointed out that both parties are blaming China for our problems, and he believes not only is that is a fallacy, it will lead to an economic disaster.

The trade war threatens global supply chains, and while many believe inflation is no problem, just the opposite could occur.

Regardless whether one believes China is the reason for the world's economic uncertainty or not, the fact is history has shown that trade wars are a disaster, and ignoring that will be at our own peril Roach says.





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Response to still_one (Original post)

Mon May 13, 2019, 06:57 AM

1. At that time, trade amounted to about 3% of our economy.

Now, our economy is very much intertwined with the rest of the world. Trump doesn't understand that you cant force something this trans formative on the economy all at once. You have to give time fore everyone to adjust.

It is controversial as to whether Smoot Hawley made that much difference.

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Response to RDANGELO (Reply #1)

Mon May 13, 2019, 07:06 AM

3. Trade wars are not a good thing, and I agree with Steven Roaches analysis. We were coming out of

the depression, and smoot Hawley pushed us into the Great Depression, until the beginning of WWII.

and the LIE we are told that China is paying for those tariffs is laughable. The American consumer will be paying for those tariffs, and eventually the American economy

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Response to still_one (Original post)

Mon May 13, 2019, 07:00 AM

2. Deflation would be quite an interesting experience.

Devastating. Too easy to believe. W's donor-serving administration brought globally interconnected economies very close to collapse. And this one is an even more venal and insanely incompetent continuation.

Btw, let's note that both parties are NOT blaming China "for our problems." If he's saying that, it's more of that false equalization designed to undermine confidence in Democrats. The Republicans and TrumpCo are. Democrats blame the Republicans, and merely agree with what is true in accusations against China.

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Response to Hortensis (Reply #2)

Mon May 13, 2019, 07:21 AM

4. That is what Roach said on Bloomberg today. I don't think Roach is trying to "undermine Democrats",

or build a false equivalency between them, at least not intentionally because he has a political agenda. I think the reason he is surmising that is because that is what Schumer has essentially said that, and I think Roach is incorrectly extrapolating that Schumer's position is representative of all Congressional Democrats:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/06/schumer-urges-trump-to-hang-tough-after-china-trade-tariff-threat.html

However, most of the other top Congressional Democrats did not join in with Schumer.

I am not a big fan of Schumer. I think he is a very weak person, and if it wasn't for Nancy Pelosi, Schumer would look weaker than he is.

We are very fortunate to have Nancy Pelosi leading us at this critical time

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Response to still_one (Reply #4)

Mon May 13, 2019, 08:11 AM

7. Yes to glad for Pelosi.

I don't know just what Schumer's up to here or how weak he is. I know he supports a bill I strongly disapprove of.

He's on the Finance Committee, though, so is heavily involved with international trade agreements. And China has been stealing very heavily from us for decades. The point at which benign neglect paid by helping advance the wellbeing of a substantial portion of the world's population is past, however, and no matter how incompetently done, Trump's bull-in-China-shop breakage is presenting opportunities to be grabbed.

This is probably in addition a political move because multitasking that way is SOP. Just guessing, for instance both somehow against McConnell, who's Chinese big business's main man in DC, and as a quote to be used in swing districts and states. But...?

As for Roach, I certainly won't disagree with anyone of his stature on economic policy.

But I am an expert on the use of false equivalencies as disinfo to convince voters that Democrats are just as bad as Republicans. I'd have to check my data for the latest figures , but there's an extremely strong correlation between use of false equivalencies and support for Republican control of government.

Roach is not just speaking sloppily in linking congressional Democrats to the Trump administration's trade war supported by Republicans. He's made the same false equivalency in writing: that both Republicans and Democrats blame China for "all that ails the United States." Suuure.

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Response to still_one (Original post)

Mon May 13, 2019, 07:22 AM

5. K&R, Chuck Schumer should ... NOT ... be agreeing with Red Don's China policy out of pure

... common sense that Red Don is fucking stupid

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Response to uponit7771 (Reply #5)

Mon May 13, 2019, 07:27 AM

6. That is where I think Roach is coming to his false conclusion about the bipartisanship between

Democrats and republicans on this. The fact is most of the leading Democrats are not jumping on board with Schumer on this.

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