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Bernardo de La Paz

(48,775 posts)
Mon Apr 22, 2019, 10:43 AM Apr 2019

Impeachment Lessons: What saved Clinton from Nixon's fate


Pew Research wrote in 2009 (emphasis added):

The Public Saves President Clinton’s Job

Of all the opinions that polls have tracked in the modern era, none has been more remarkable than President Bill Clinton’s approval ratings rising on the news of allegations that he had carried on an affair with a White House intern, Monica Lewinsky. A Pew Research Center poll in mid-January 1998 found that 61% of its respondents approved of the way the president was handling his job.11 Two weeks later, Clinton’s ratings spiked to 71%, reflecting public outrage over the way the media had prejudged Clinton’s guilt.12 The same trend was recorded in Gallup and other national surveys. The Pew Research poll analysis found the public more discontented with the president’s accusers in the news media than upset by Clinton’s alleged misbehavior.13

The public’s unexpected rallying to Clinton’s side led to a transformation of the Washington establishment’s judgment of his political viability. Before news of Clinton’s polling boost, political insiders had all but written him off. Public support for the president allowed, if not encouraged, congressional Democrats to rally to his side.

The impact of Clinton’s standing in the polls along with growing antipathy toward the president’s accusers were also potent factors in the impeachment debate and the broader politics of that contentious midterm year. The public stood by Clinton through each chapter of the saga: his grand jury testimony, his admission of lying, the revelations of the Starr report, and ultimately the Republican vote to impeach him. He ended the year with a 71% approval rating. His party actually picked up eight seats in the House of Representatives — an unusual occurrence for a second-term president, let alone one about to be impeached. It is inconceivable to think that public opinion could have had such an impact in an era prior to the emergence of the media polls.
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Impeachment Lessons: What saved Clinton from Nixon's fate (Original Post) Bernardo de La Paz Apr 2019 OP
What saved Clinton wryter2000 Apr 2019 #1
Without convincing the public of that, he would have been convicted by Senate or resigned. . . . nt Bernardo de La Paz Apr 2019 #2
We already have 50% who don't approve of Trump. world wide wally Apr 2019 #3
No way would enough Democrats have voted to remove him. n/t wryter2000 Apr 2019 #6
That's easy. The Piss Poor Case Against Him Tom Rinaldo Apr 2019 #4
And the logical conclusions therefore are Bernardo de La Paz Apr 2019 #5
Democrats didn't gain anything either in the 98 midterms and then lost the presidency in part cause uponit7771 Apr 2019 #7
Wrong. Democrats gained five seats in the house and one governorship in 1998 midterms Bernardo de La Paz Apr 2019 #8
They didn't gain the house or senate ... They did gain control of either uponit7771 Apr 2019 #9
It was best since 1822. That's a different story than when you wrote they didn't gain "anything". Bernardo de La Paz Apr 2019 #10
Anything in terms of control not just seats, minority seats gets us little uponit7771 Apr 2019 #11
In this case it also got the resignation of Newt Gingrich. Not "little". Bernardo de La Paz Apr 2019 #14
Joy Reid cover both of these points on Sunday Gingrich was caught in and scandal sorry about sorry a uponit7771 Apr 2019 #15
The impeachment vote was in December 1998 NewJeffCT Apr 2019 #12
That is correct, but impeachment was a big issue in the election Bernardo de La Paz Apr 2019 #13

Tom Rinaldo

(22,911 posts)
4. That's easy. The Piss Poor Case Against Him
Mon Apr 22, 2019, 11:48 AM
Apr 2019

That is why the public rallied to his side. The Republicans were nakedly political in trying to remove him from office over a matter that did not effect national security, did not involve obstruction (Clinton volunteered to testify to a grand jury under oath) and at most involved a single area of untruths concerning a purely personal matter.

Impeachment hearings against Clinton exposed the accusers, not their target. The evidence obviously did not support the proposed remedy. It was a massive Republican over reach. The case against Trump bears no resemblance to the anemic case against Clinton.

Bernardo de La Paz

(48,775 posts)
5. And the logical conclusions therefore are
Mon Apr 22, 2019, 01:36 PM
Apr 2019

1) To make sure the case against tRump is always about the facts, not spin. In interviews and commentary and social posts and chance conversation with pro- and con- people, bring it back to the facts.

When you have strong facts (as Democrats do), try the facts.

When you have no facts (as Republicons do), attack the judge, the jury, the court reporter, the investigators, etc.

This is what tRump is doing. He knows he is guilty so he attacks the ("Mexican" etc) judges, the media, the FBI, and so on.

2) Be ready to impeach quickly when the public opinion crosses 50% in favor of "removal from office".

uponit7771

(90,225 posts)
7. Democrats didn't gain anything either in the 98 midterms and then lost the presidency in part cause
Mon Apr 22, 2019, 02:45 PM
Apr 2019

.... Gore ran away from the historically popular president.

Bernardo de La Paz

(48,775 posts)
8. Wrong. Democrats gained five seats in the house and one governorship in 1998 midterms
Mon Apr 22, 2019, 03:41 PM
Apr 2019

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_United_States_elections

Article says Democrats gained 8 seats. Perhaps there were three seats elected other than Nov 1998.



Bernardo de La Paz

(48,775 posts)
10. It was best since 1822. That's a different story than when you wrote they didn't gain "anything".
Mon Apr 22, 2019, 03:45 PM
Apr 2019

With the Republicans having lost 4 House seats and failing to gain any seats in the Senate, it was the first time since 1934 that the non-presidential party failed to gain congressional seats in a mid-term election. [...] It was also the first time since 1822 that the non-presidential party had failed to gain seats in the mid-term election of a President's second term.

Bernardo de La Paz

(48,775 posts)
14. In this case it also got the resignation of Newt Gingrich. Not "little".
Mon Apr 22, 2019, 04:02 PM
Apr 2019

In November 1998, the Democrats picked up five seats in the House although the Republicans still maintained majority control.[12] The results were a particular embarrassment for House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who, before the election, had been reassured by private polling that Clinton's scandal would result in Republican gains of up to thirty House seats.[12] Shortly after the elections, Gingrich, who had been one of the leading advocates for impeachment,[13] announced he would resign from Congress as soon as he was able to find somebody to fill his vacant seat;[12] Gingrich fulfilled this pledge, and officially resigned from Congress on January 3, 1999.[14]

NewJeffCT

(56,827 posts)
12. The impeachment vote was in December 1998
Mon Apr 22, 2019, 03:49 PM
Apr 2019

A month after the election.

The impeachment trial was in 1999.

Republicans didn't hold any hearings before the election because the Starr Report had been leaked like a sieve over the previous few years and felt the Starr Report spoke for itself.

Bernardo de La Paz

(48,775 posts)
13. That is correct, but impeachment was a big issue in the election
Mon Apr 22, 2019, 03:56 PM
Apr 2019

Since Ken Starr had already completed an extensive investigation, the House Judiciary Committee conducted no investigations of its own into Clinton's alleged wrongdoing, and it held no serious impeachment-related hearings before the 1998 midterm elections. Nevertheless, impeachment was one of the major issues in the election.

In November 1998, the Democrats picked up five seats in the House although the Republicans still maintained majority control.[12] The results were a particular embarrassment for House Speaker Newt Gingrich, -- Wikipedia
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