Josh Marshall on CNN poll: Wow

[ProSense]

Wow

Josh Marshall

CNN just released a new presidential poll showing a tight 2 point margin for President Obama going into the Republican convention. I’d say the even bigger story is down in the details. This is the first poll that CNN has released with “likely voters” — just like Fox’s most recent poll did. If you look at the number for registered voters it’s a 9 point Obama margin.

What that means is that President Obama has actually gained a bit of ground (obviously within the margin of error) on last week’s eye-popping poll showing him with a 7 point lead over Mitt Romney. But it also shows that turnout and propensity to vote are going to be the whole game going into November.

Likely voter screens almost always provide some GOP edge. But 7 points is an extremely large one for a presidential contest.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2012/08/wow_13.php?ref=fpblg

Yup, according to the poll, Obama now leads Romney 52 to 43 among registered voters. Romney is down two points from the previous poll, which showed Obama leading 52 to 45.

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/08/24/rel8a.pdf

I'm still trying to figure out why the reports have now shifted to likely voters.

Fox poll has Romney up by one point among likely voters
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021188576

[lob1]

1. "I'm still trying out why the reports have now shifted to likely voters."

I think it's because of the anti-voting laws being passed in so many states. Less democrats likely to vote.

[ProSense]

3. Oops, "to figure" added. n/t

[cthulu2016]

2. I would have shifted to likely voters right after the conventions

It seems odd to make the switch immediately before them.

[ProSense]

4. It's enthusiasm, CNN:

<...>

According to the poll, 49% of likely voters say they're backing Obama, with 47% supporting Romney. The two point margin is within the survey's sampling error, meaning the race is a statistical tie.

Among the larger pool of registered voters, some of whom will stay at home on Election Day, the survey indicates the president holds a 52%-43% lead. That number is little changed from CNN's previous poll, conducted in early August, before Romney named House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan as his running mate.

"Likely voters have traditionally been a more Republican group in past elections because they tend to turn out in higher numbers than Democrats, and 2012 looks like it is no exception. This explains why the margin between President Obama and Mitt Romney is smaller among likely voters," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "But it is a mistake to say that the race has tightened in the past few weeks, given the lack of movement in the results for registered voters."

In an election, it all comes down to turnout, and that's what a likely voter model is all about. The more enthusiastic you are about voting, the likelier you are to actually vote in November. According to the poll, 35% of registered Republicans questioned say they are extremely enthusiastic about voting, six points higher than the 29% of Democrats who feel the same way.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/08/24/cnn-poll-obama-49-romney-47-among-likely-voters/

[Wednesdays]

5. And among really REALLY likely voters

Polls show rMoney with a 112% lead.

[Curmudgeoness]

6. Why switch to "likely voters"????

Maybe it is because they are finding the poll that looks best for the Republicans, so they decided to report this one. You know, that main stream media is sooooo liberal.

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

7. Why would you care about a person's preference....

....if they aren't going to vote....if a person says they aren't going to vote they will have zero effect on the outcome, no?

I think it should be MOTIVATION....WE NEED TO GET THOSE FUCKING PEOPLE TO VOTE!!!!

Again, like I said the other day....I don't understand how someone doesn't want to vote in a presidential election. It's like saying you are a football fan but don't watch the playoffs and Super Bowl.

[Junkdrawer]

8. Need a new category: Non-Suppressed Voters...

In that category, Romney may lead...

[kevinbgoode1]

9. So when do they make the switch to "voters whose ballots are likely to be actually counted" polls?

After all, since 2000, it seems like that category is more reflective of the reality in parts of the country.

[Rhiannon12866]

11. I couldn't have said it better...

Welcome to DU, kevinbgoode1! It's great to have you with us!

[Gormy Cuss]

10. As it gets closer to an election "likely voters" are a better estimate than registered voters

GOTV efforts will be extremely important again. We have two months to work on those registered but not likely voters and on the eligible but not registered.