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Thu Aug 23, 2012, 09:19 PM

Psychohistory Predics Revolution In 2020

There was an article in New Scientist that caught my eye this morning of a guy who has developed something similar to psychohistory, which was part of Isaac Asimov's Foundation series. The author looked at past empires, when they rose and how they fell, and what factors seem to have contributed to them:



PETER TURCHIN thinks he can see the future. Unlike the fortune teller you might find at a seaside carnival, he needs no crystal ball. Instead, the tools of his trade are mathematics and testable theories. Armed with these, his goal is nothing less than to revolutionise the study of history, turning it from a mass of anecdotes into a rigorous, predictive science.

Turchin calls his new discipline cliodynamics, after Clio, the classical Greek muse of history, and so far its biggest focus has been the fate of empires. Now Turchin is using patterns he has found underlying their rise and fall to make predictions of political changes to come. His forecast is alarming. If his calculations are correct, the US faces major civil unrest and political violence sometime around the end of this decade.

Critics call Turchin's approach simplistic and naive, with some arguing that recorded history is too short to provide adequate evidence for his assertions. Turchin, meanwhile, is happy to have his theories tested - and hopes that he is wrong. If things are left to run their course, we should know quite soon. There is another option, however. We could head off any instability, Turchin says - but only if we take some unpalatable remedies now.

SNIP




Having (quietly for the most part) hung around DU since 2000, I have a keen sense of the growing inequality between rich and poor. It's often surprised me just how much people can take in terms of economic inequality. When the Occupy movement broke out, I expected it to gain more momentum than it did, but perhaps it's just the first instance of unrest. The parallel question is whether people in power realize it as well and are preparing for increasing unrest, possibly rising to violence or civil war.

Look at who is making a lot of money now: banks and investment corporations - not investors. A lot of this is due to high frequency trading (HFT). HFT doesn't do what investment used to do, allocate money to projects that have a high likelihood of success. It's a way to "skim the ripples" of the economy over very short periods of time. It's a way for these companies to take their cut of the money from people who do actual work, but the HFT companies provide nothing in return, not even "protection."

Getting into investment seems very risky, to me at least. I can't imagine trusting one of these companies to handle my money with my interests at heart. There have been too many stories of brokers buying stocks that they get kickbacks on but yield lower. In a way, it's almost like there aren't separate companies in competition but one big company, where all the parts collude for the interest of the whole meta-company. If that represents reality, then we most certainly do not have the benefits that capitalism could offer. And we definitely have the problems that capitalism comes with.

One political party is determined to not only keep things the way they are, but to speed our journey as a nation or a world to the situation that, in the past, has led to the destruction of empires. And the things that party says are incredible: give more money to the rich and it will help everybody, cut taxes and it will raise more revenue, cutting medical care increases freedom. The concocted logic to justify these statements would be laughable if so many people didn't buy into it. And then, there are people who don't buy into it but still support the people saying these things, because they don't care if they can't eat as long as gays can't marry. Unfortunately it's very easy to get people to vote against their own best interests by appealing to the worst of their qualities.

Back to phychohistory: many civilizations have fallen when inequality grows too wide. According to Turchin, we are headed toward that point and will reach it at the end of the decade. How many here have pointed out that, when people have nothing more to lose, they might as well rebel and try to take something back? When people have children to feed, what lengths will they go to do that? Taxing the rich would definitely help to bring some equality back, but the aforementioned political party will do everything it can to stop that from happening, so our march to civil war appears to be set.

Of course, there are differences between empires of old and this country. First, it isn't really about just this country since the world is so much more connected than it ever was before. Global aspects influence economies to a much greater extent than before, but this means the "empire," in effect, is the whole world. A "civil war," in this case, could be far larger than anything that happened in the past, with far greater consequences for all of civilization and the world.

Add to that global warming with the associated rising sea levels, extreme weather, dropping yield on corn and other crops, and the force toward violence could increase by an order of magnitude. It would not be pretty. Heading it off should be everyone's priority.

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Arrow 41 replies Author Time Post
Reply Psychohistory Predics Revolution In 2020 (Original post)
mindwalker_i Aug 2012 OP
Bonhomme Richard Aug 2012 #1
orpupilofnature57 Aug 2012 #4
Bonhomme Richard Aug 2012 #8
BlueinOhio Aug 2012 #9
FarLeftMale Aug 2012 #18
BlueinOhio Aug 2012 #35
dixiegrrrrl Aug 2012 #22
abelenkpe Aug 2012 #2
orpupilofnature57 Aug 2012 #3
Bernardo de La Paz Aug 2012 #34
Agnosticsherbet Aug 2012 #5
BlueinOhio Aug 2012 #11
BlueinOhio Aug 2012 #6
FarLeftMale Aug 2012 #7
wildflower Aug 2012 #21
Bonhomme Richard Aug 2012 #24
mindwalker_i Aug 2012 #10
Fumesucker Aug 2012 #12
ieoeja Aug 2012 #29
longship Aug 2012 #13
FarLeftMale Aug 2012 #19
Springslips Aug 2012 #20
mindwalker_i Aug 2012 #23
Bernardo de La Paz Aug 2012 #33
Bernardo de La Paz Aug 2012 #32
leveymg Aug 2012 #14
SnohoDem Aug 2012 #15
BlueinOhio Aug 2012 #16
backscatter712 Aug 2012 #17
nadinbrzezinski Aug 2012 #27
nadinbrzezinski Aug 2012 #25
leeroysphitz Aug 2012 #26
cali Aug 2012 #28
Zalatix Aug 2012 #30
tama Aug 2012 #31
Motown_Johnny Aug 2012 #36
mick063 Aug 2012 #37
PopeOxycontinI Aug 2012 #39
99Forever Aug 2012 #38
PopeOxycontinI Aug 2012 #40
Odin2005 Aug 2012 #41

Response to mindwalker_i (Original post)

Thu Aug 23, 2012, 09:29 PM

1. My gut tells me that climate change is going to be the catalyst.

Drought, heat, and weather is going to start a mass migration of people. When? I think sooner than later.

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Response to Bonhomme Richard (Reply #1)

Thu Aug 23, 2012, 09:33 PM

4. Where North, South, East or West ?

 

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Response to orpupilofnature57 (Reply #4)

Thu Aug 23, 2012, 09:49 PM

8. My guess would be, in our hemisphere, north.

But then, what do I know.

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Response to Bonhomme Richard (Reply #1)

Thu Aug 23, 2012, 09:49 PM

9. Part

The climate change and the plates moving releasing even more green house gases. Self generating cycle. As the climate changes so it makes more likely more earthquakes, volcano's erupt. Dont know if there is way off this mad merry go round. The plates move slowly till a tipping point then kinetic energy kicks in. Cultures and society needs to change or evolve soon.

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Response to BlueinOhio (Reply #9)

Thu Aug 23, 2012, 11:30 PM

18. vhdbvbfhbhfdjv

 

I'm pretty sure climate change has no effects on earthquakes and volcanoes but I could be wrong. Plate Tectonics can effect climate in that a super continent is hotter, but that's it I think.

-mediocre geology student

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Response to FarLeftMale (Reply #18)

Mon Aug 27, 2012, 05:29 PM

35. Climate

Professor Bill McGuire, Professor of Geohazards at University College London.
www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/feb/26/why-climate-change-shake-earth

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Response to Bonhomme Richard (Reply #1)

Fri Aug 24, 2012, 12:08 AM

22. It will be a race between weather and Fukishima...IMHO.

Lot depends on developments in Japan about Fukishima.

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Response to mindwalker_i (Original post)

Thu Aug 23, 2012, 09:31 PM

2. Sounds like the fourth turning nt

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Response to mindwalker_i (Original post)

Thu Aug 23, 2012, 09:32 PM

3. Will there be gated states ?

 

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Response to orpupilofnature57 (Reply #3)

Fri Aug 24, 2012, 02:22 PM

34. USA. Here. Now.

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Response to mindwalker_i (Original post)

Thu Aug 23, 2012, 09:36 PM

5. Is there a link to the New Scientist story? n/t

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Response to Agnosticsherbet (Reply #5)

Thu Aug 23, 2012, 09:58 PM

11. Sign up for news letter

I love this magazine. I use to read Scientific American but around 2002 they changed signed up for the news letter have been reading New Scientist ever since. Great research material for papers.

http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21528781.800-calculated-violence-numbers-that-predict-revolutions.html

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Response to mindwalker_i (Original post)

Thu Aug 23, 2012, 09:39 PM

6. Life or fiction

But heading that off is the opposite of what the religious extremist, fundamentalist or orthodox wants. If they bring destruction then the Jesus, Mahdi or Messiah, wiill come back. History repeats but changes as it returns. This has all happened before. Another good sci-fi book that fits is Nightfall by Asimov.

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Response to mindwalker_i (Original post)

Thu Aug 23, 2012, 09:47 PM

7. dfjbgdisghirsehei

 

My mind is blown. If the right becomes fascists (they seem pretty darn close to me) I might become violent.

Asimov said violence is the last refuge of the incompetent, but I can't see it in this world.

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Response to FarLeftMale (Reply #7)

Thu Aug 23, 2012, 11:47 PM

21. Do you have a cat?

I noticed you have interesting subject lines.

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Response to wildflower (Reply #21)

Fri Aug 24, 2012, 11:18 AM

24. +1. I get that when my dog, unbeknown to me, rest his chin...

on my keyboard.

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Response to mindwalker_i (Original post)

Thu Aug 23, 2012, 10:11 PM

12. The Magistrate made an offhand comment to me once on DU2

He mentioned that one sign of the impending end of a Chinese dynasty was that the wealthy stopped paying their taxes/tribute to the government.

Evidently The Magistrate is a student of Chinese history, personally I know just enough to really embarrass myself if I were to try to opine on it.

Edited for phrasing.

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Response to Fumesucker (Reply #12)

Fri Aug 24, 2012, 11:56 AM

29. Interesting because that is exactly what happened in France before the Revolution.

 


The aristocracy decided to get rid of taxes on themselves.


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Response to mindwalker_i (Original post)

Thu Aug 23, 2012, 10:46 PM

13. Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy.

Shoot your gun at the side of a barn. Walk over and paint a bullseye around the bullet hole.

Also called data mining, looking for any correlation and when you find one, declare a new law of causation. Commonly used by astrologers to claim legitimacy.

Finally, correlation does not imply causation and a bit of post hoc reasoning.

Shame on New pseudo-Scientist.

on edit: this is the second thread this evening I have posted this same argument. What's wrong with people that they have such poor critical thinking skills? Now we all know why the Republicans in Texas have explicitly targeted critical thinking education. It makes me sick.

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Response to longship (Reply #13)

Thu Aug 23, 2012, 11:33 PM

19. djgfld;sgndlsgnd

 

I will have to read more at a later date to see if you are right because I am so interested by the original post.

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Response to longship (Reply #13)

Thu Aug 23, 2012, 11:40 PM

20. Plus 1

Absolutely. This is junk. History is not a direct effect of some deterministic cause, like gasoline combusting to run an automobile. There is no cause that can be identified and predicted that stay consistant in history to explain social events. It more like "you never cross the same river twice." A time has a different culture, and background than a past time, what happened because of certain factors in the past may not happen with those same factors in a present time.

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Response to Springslips (Reply #20)

Fri Aug 24, 2012, 01:02 AM

23. I disagree

If income inequality becomes too large, or they see no way to survive, they will react against the system that keeps them there. I don't have children, but if I did and I couldn't get food on the table no matter how I worked, there would come a point where I'd have to find methods outside of the system to get food.

It doesn't need to get that extreme though. If I see a bunch of people gaming the system to get a sizable percentage of the money I work for, but they don't contribute anything, that's going to piss me off. If enough people feel that way, they'll do something about it.

It might be complex, but there are deterministic outcomes of certain situations. As the people at the top reach for more and more, it will and is setting off social unrest that will grow as the situation becomes worse.

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Response to Springslips (Reply #20)

Fri Aug 24, 2012, 02:13 PM

33. I disagree

There are many recurring factors. That does not mean that the researcher in the OP is valid on his 2020 date or any other specific.

However, the main thing that collapses civilizations is arrogance. It leads to belief that others are not capable and that nothing needs to be done. Due to arrogance, the Roman empire fell when not enough precautions were taken because they thought the invaders were not a real problem.

Arrogance is why the sneaky Americans with their Native American tactics were successful in the Revolution against the British redcoats who made particularly visible targets.

Arrogance primarily is the belief that change can be discounted. It is the cause of large corporations failing as disruptive technologies and companies arise. French arrogance built the Maginot line and the Germans rolled around it with advanced tanks through the forests instead of over it.

Arrogance is the disease of conservatism (liberalism has its own diseases). Aging empires and civilizations tend to give rise to conservative dominance, and the sleepy smugness of arrogance.

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Response to longship (Reply #13)

Fri Aug 24, 2012, 02:01 PM

32. Data mining is *not* the texas sharpshooter fallacy. It's not a fallacy at all.

Your other points highlighting that correlation does not imply causation are good, but your reference to data mining undermines your thesis.

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Response to mindwalker_i (Original post)

Thu Aug 23, 2012, 11:00 PM

14. What are the other variables in Turchin's algorthm of revolution? Gini Coefficient is just one

factor, according to the established academic theorists of revolution, such as Theda Skocpol, Jack Goldstone, the Tilleys, Barrington Moore, Doug McAdams, etc.

There are other dynamics and causes that must be present before populations mobilize and coalesce from scattered rebellion to organize social revolution: population and prices, failure in war, crop failure, public debt, resistance to taxation, breakdown in legitimacy of institutions, the rise of competing elites and dual sovereignty, disappointment at failed reforms, to name a few.

But, you know what, we see all those things in spades today. What does Turchin have to add to the existing models?

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Response to mindwalker_i (Original post)

Thu Aug 23, 2012, 11:01 PM

15. I can easily imagine

widespread unrest and violence by the end of the decade, but the 'surveillance state', for lack of a better term, is so pervasive that barring the ability to damage the surveillance state first, organizing an actual revolution seems almost impossible.

Food riots, isolated attacks on 'the rich' or on gated neighborhoods, bombings of government offices, domestic terrorism, yeah, I can imagine that. I just don't see how any group could build up to critical mass while staying hidden from surveillance. Maybe as people get poor enough, they will drop out of sight of the surveillance state:

"When you ain't got nothing, you got nothing to lose
You're invisible, you got no secrets to conceal"

From the left, a vast expansion of the occupy movement, general strikes, even nationwide, and so forth just seem more likely. Any major violence would probably come from the right, not the left. The left has the 'anarchists', who break windows, but the right seems to have a large number of groups who declare themselves ready for serious violence.

Discussion of the concentration of wealth in post-Reagan America, and the almost inevitable bad consequences, is not new. I first read about it in Kevin Phillips' "The Politics of Rich and Poor: Wealth and the American Electorate in the Reagan Aftermath" (1991).

Global warming and globalization add new pressures that make it an even scarier time as does the rise of China as a superpower.

The most depressing thing to me is that I don't see anything better at the end of any potential troubles. A theocracy or a real fascist state seem more likely outcomes than any sort of re-awakening of American ideals.

Sorry for such a rambling, negative post. I'm not predicting any of these things, but you don't need to be a psycho-historian, or even a historian to notice the trends that have been building for most of the last thirty years. I hope we pull through and fix our problems, I just don't have much faith that we will.










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Response to mindwalker_i (Original post)

Thu Aug 23, 2012, 11:28 PM

16. Gene Sharp

From dictatorship to democracy, income inequality always results in revolt. An anthropology class I had has an explanation of why it has not happened here recently. As long as they get the populace to believe they will get their reward after they are dead and give them the belief that somehow they to can be a billionaire they will protect the way things are. But it is crumbling. Teddy Roosevelt and FDR had the sense to stop it, this GOP crowd is not. In Howard Zinn 's book The Peoples History of they United States tells of such inequalities and what happened. The inequality now is in par with the way it was in 1776.

Using patterns and using formulas are used all the time, from stock market picks, logistic routes so why not for social upheavals, even the type of fast food you will eat so they can statistically have it ready by the time you order it. Simplex logarithm.

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Response to mindwalker_i (Original post)

Thu Aug 23, 2012, 11:30 PM

17. Hmmm. The New Scientist website requires registration to read articles. Found another one in Nature.

http://www.nature.com/news/human-cycles-history-as-science-1.11078

Human cycles: History as science
Advocates of 'cliodynamics' say that they can use scientific methods to illuminate the past. But historians are not so sure.

Laura Spinney
01 August 2012 Corrected: 08 August 2012

Sometimes, history really does seem to repeat itself. After the US Civil War, for example, a wave of urban violence fuelled by ethnic and class resentment swept across the country, peaking in about 1870. Internal strife spiked again in around 1920, when race riots, workers' strikes and a surge of anti-Communist feeling led many people to think that revolution was imminent. And in around 1970, unrest crested once more, with violent student demonstrations, political assassinations, riots and terrorism (see 'Cycles of violence').

To Peter Turchin, who studies population dynamics at the University of Connecticut in Storrs, the appearance of three peaks of political instability at roughly 50-year intervals is not a coincidence. For the past 15 years, Turchin has been taking the mathematical techniques that once allowed him to track predator–prey cycles in forest ecosystems, and applying them to human history. He has analysed historical records on economic activity, demographic trends and outbursts of violence in the United States, and has come to the conclusion that a new wave of internal strife is already on its way1. The peak should occur in about 2020, he says, and will probably be at least as high as the one in around 1970. “I hope it won't be as bad as 1870,” he adds.

Turchin's approach — which he calls cliodynamics after Clio, the ancient Greek muse of history — is part of a groundswell of efforts to apply scientific methods to history by identifying and modelling the broad social forces that Turchin and his colleagues say shape all human societies. It is an attempt to show that “history is not 'just one damn thing after another'”, says Turchin, paraphrasing a saying often attributed to the late British historian Arnold Toynbee.

Cliodynamics is viewed with deep scepticism by most academic historians, who tend to see history as a complex stew of chance, individual foibles and one-of-a-kind situations that no broad-brush 'science of history' will ever capture. “After a century of grand theory, from Marxism and social Darwinism to structuralism and postmodernism, most historians have abandoned the belief in general laws,” said Robert Darnton, a cultural historian at Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts, in a column written in 1999.

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Response to backscatter712 (Reply #17)

Fri Aug 24, 2012, 11:26 AM

27. Thanks

 

And traditional historians will fight this. Never mynd Toupynbee and others.

Fascinating ready.

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Response to mindwalker_i (Original post)

Fri Aug 24, 2012, 11:21 AM

25. A link would be nice

 

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Response to mindwalker_i (Original post)

Fri Aug 24, 2012, 11:24 AM

26. So maybe nuclear winter will offset global warming?

 

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Response to mindwalker_i (Original post)

Fri Aug 24, 2012, 11:29 AM

28. Psychohistory is a real discipline.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychohistory

I wish you'd provided a link.

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Response to mindwalker_i (Original post)

Fri Aug 24, 2012, 12:00 PM

30. The military will put down such a revolution.

 

Either one of two things will happen:

#1: The soldier and police caste will be given orders to smash a rebellion;

and if they refuse, #2 - drones will do it instead.

Not the drones of today, but rather, the horrors you'll see in action in ~10 years. That's a LONG TIME for military tech to evolve.

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Response to mindwalker_i (Original post)

Fri Aug 24, 2012, 12:10 PM

31. I recommend a classic work on the subject

 

"Top Soil and Civilization" http://www.amazon.com/Topsoil-Civilization-Vernon-Gill-Carter/dp/0806111070; a free pdf is also available somewhere in the net.

Neither fixation on doomer scenarios nor denial of what is now happening is helpful. Global Capitalism (as we know it) is dependent from continuous growth, and when the whole globe has been conquered there is no more room for imperialist expansion. Global oil production peaked 2005-2008, in accordance to predictions of Club of Rome report on 'Limits of Growth'. The visible collapse of Global Capitalism began with events of 2008, and the process is going on, most attention now centered on financial collapse of Euro and IMF & Co devouring Greece and other European countries. Global resistance and revolution against Imperialist Capitalism has deep roots that go way back, and with this polarization phase that we are now in, resistance is growing stronger. Latin American socialist revolutions, Iceland, Arab Spring; various social movements and their global networks. Most national revolutions have been relatively peaceful, Libya and Syria being most notable exceptions. This global resistance and revolution is continuous process of years and decades and generations, mostly peaceful and pacifistic and large parts of it are already concentrating on post capitalist ways of life, such as small self sufficient communities, transition movement of urban centers, horizontal forms of democracy instead of hierarchic etc etc. On the other hand conservative governments controlled by banks are trying to increase control and oppress through police state means as much as they can and keep their populations in fear of the Other with terrorism etc., but their abilities to do so while not denied, should not be overestimated. Economic collapse means only less resources available for police control and military spending, even though those are last things that governments stop pouring what ever resources they have available.

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Response to mindwalker_i (Original post)

Mon Aug 27, 2012, 05:49 PM

36. The thing about 2020 is....

 

...that in 2020 the percentage of the electorate, here in America, which is composed of "whites" falls below 2/3.

It is at this point that I believe the Republican party will need to win such a large percentage of the white vote to win a national election that it becomes highly improbable if not impossible in any practical sense. The "nonwhite" vote favors us and this demographic shift will continue to favor our party every year for the foreseeable future and beyond.




http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/aia2010031101/

^snip^







The increase in the nonwhite share of the electorate over the next decade will have major consequences for electoral competition. If the Democratic Party is able to maintain anything close to the overwhelming advantage among nonwhite voters that it enjoyed in 2008, Republican candidates will need to win a considerably larger share of the white vote than their party’s candidates did in 2008 or even 2004 in order to remain competitive in national elections. Under these circumstances, even a 60 percent share of the white vote would not be enough to give a Republican candidate a majority of the popular vote and the last Republican presidential candidate to win more than 60 percent of the white vote was Ronald Reagan in 1984.

An alternative path to victory for Republicans in future national elections would involve seeking to expand their Party’s support among nonwhite voters. By winning a larger share of the nonwhite vote, a Republican candidate could be elected with considerably less than 60 percent of the white vote. But this would require the GOP to move away from its conservative base and closer to the ideological center because nonwhite voters tend to be strong supporters of increased spending on social programs and activist government.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Along the same lines, 65 percent of nonwhite voters, including 64 percent of African-American voters and 73 percent of Hispanic voters, supported the creation of a single-payer health care system in the United States compared with only 15 percent of Republican primary voters. And given a choice between more government services with higher taxes and fewer government services with lower taxes, 67 percent of nonwhite voters, including 67 percent of African-American voters and 68 percent of Hispanic voters, chose more government services with higher taxes compared with only 25 percent of GOP primary voters.








P.S. As an Asimov fan I must say that psychohistory is far to complex for any human brain to conceive of. Without a real life version of R. Daneel we have no hope of ever developing this.

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Response to mindwalker_i (Original post)

Mon Aug 27, 2012, 06:05 PM

37. Be afraid of technology that history can't account for

 

It started with tear gas and water cannons, but those are "old school" techniques.

The new era of "non lethal" crowd control is in it's infancy, but there are many prototypes in place and being implemented by you local police department. Seventy year old men have been tazared. All federally funded by your new federal agency called the Department of Homeland Security.

When entire crowds can be easily subdued on a whim, dissent will be forever eliminated and oppression will rule the day.

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Response to mick063 (Reply #37)

Mon Aug 27, 2012, 08:04 PM

39. mick063, I'm afraid you're right

It seems that surveillance and crowd control technology
is overwhelming the technology that allows people to
communicate and organize across geography, etc. barriers.
Revolutions and Occupy movements seem like non-starters
for real change, now.

The next option is for some people to form new types of
self-sufficient communities both on and off the grid.
Of course, what will probably happen with most of those
is that they will cracked down at the behest either of
corporate entities or complaints from neighborhood and town
busybodies. Chickenshit zoning and building codes will be the excuse.
It will be done by the same people who babble at Tea party rallies
about "freedom"...you know...the same people who sit on or complain
to HOAs when someone's shutters are the wrong color or their grass
is a quarter inch too long. I know these hypocritical types. They are
the foot soldiers for the 1%. They were born from about 1935-1965
so the "system" worked for them, and either too stupid or too
oblivious to see what the problem is. After helping clean out
nest of neo-hippies who were completely harmless, they will go
to their Tea party meeting(if it still exists 5-10 years from now)
and wail about how "liberals" are destroying "freedom".
See how it works, the same people who bitch about too much
"regulation" will make it impossible for people to just fucking LIVE.

We may very well starve to death in a final global (capitalist) version
of the gulag, with no escape other than death. The new history books
written by descendants of the 1% will cover up or reinterpret the shit out
of it all. Thankfully, by mid-century the natural resources for the process
to repeat itself won't exist. This will be a truly unique period in history.

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Response to mindwalker_i (Original post)

Mon Aug 27, 2012, 06:39 PM

38. K&R L

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Response to mindwalker_i (Original post)

Mon Aug 27, 2012, 08:24 PM

40. K&R

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Response to mindwalker_i (Original post)

Mon Aug 27, 2012, 08:51 PM

41. Predicting the future is impossible, this guy is a crank.

Predicting the future would mean knowing the future advancement of knowledge, which makes no sense.

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