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Mon Feb 11, 2019, 12:06 AM

FiveThirtyEight has Trump approval at 40.2%. He just retweeted it as 50%, "Working hard, thank you!"

Donald J. Trump Retweeted

Donald J. Trump

Verified account

@realDonaldTrump

Working hard, thank you!




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Response to Miles Archer (Original post)

Mon Feb 11, 2019, 12:10 AM

1. Ugh, there's no way it's at 40%.

Fake news. Cough.

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Response to area51 (Reply #1)

Mon Feb 11, 2019, 12:12 AM

3. Yeah, it really has to be lower than that n/t

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Response to area51 (Reply #1)

Mon Feb 11, 2019, 12:16 AM

5. When you do a Google search on "Trump approval"...

...the top / most current stories right now are claiming he got a bump from the SOTU (I know, I know...impossible for me to believe as one who watched it). That explains the 40.25%.

That should change a week or so from now when Nancy doesn't cut him a $5.7 billion check for his wall, and he starts juggling another shutdown, declaring a state of emergency, using the military or raiding the disaster relief cookie jar.

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Response to Miles Archer (Original post)

Mon Feb 11, 2019, 12:11 AM

2. Can't read or do math for sh't.

Is there anything with this idiot that isn't a lie.

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Response to Miles Archer (Original post)

Mon Feb 11, 2019, 12:14 AM

4. Lying harder...

n/t

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Response to Miles Archer (Original post)

Mon Feb 11, 2019, 12:17 AM

6. To be fair, Rasmussen actually does have tRump at 50% ... but, Rasmussen is also known

to have a massive right wingnut tilt too. Nobody except Faux "News" or tRumpanzees take them seriously.

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Response to SFnomad (Reply #6)

Mon Feb 11, 2019, 12:34 AM

8. Your right. Thanks I was wondering where he got this from

I figured it was Rasmussen

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Response to underpants (Reply #8)

Mon Feb 11, 2019, 12:36 AM

9. Oh, but there is a catch ... that's 50% of "likely voters"

This far out from the 2020 Primaries, who knows how they figure that out

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Response to SFnomad (Reply #9)

Mon Feb 11, 2019, 12:45 AM

10. They tend to figure it out with questions

As I understand it these polls have many questions to establish who the responder is (pol leaning) and also things like their likelihood to vote. On the survey the ask the same questions several times and use that to determine different factors.

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Response to underpants (Reply #10)

Mon Feb 11, 2019, 01:27 AM

13. Great response.

You are on the right track. It is all subjective and what your base line is. The real outcomes are biased towards the buyer of those results.

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Response to Miles Archer (Original post)

Mon Feb 11, 2019, 12:20 AM

7. Question is, what percentage of vote would he get if held tomorrow. If vote were held

Last edited Mon Feb 11, 2019, 06:20 AM - Edit history (1)

I bet he, or some similar white wing ass, would get more than 40.2%.

Some “disapproval” is disappointment in his not deporting millions of Hispanics, ending Obamacare, bombing Iraq and NK, jailing Obama and Clinton, and likely worse. There are a lot of deplorable people in this country.

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Response to Hoyt (Reply #7)

Mon Feb 11, 2019, 12:54 AM

11. At least 44% but probably 45% range

Minus a major third party candidate, neither party's nominee will receive lower than 44% or thereabouts. On election day 2018, Trump was at 41.8% approval on 538 but his national exit poll approval number was 45% with 54% disapprove.

Rasmussen uses the likely voter angle, which pushes the approval number high and of course Rasmussen is right leaning to begin with. IMO, a good measure of Trump's actual standing with the electorate at any point in time is to take the 538 adjustment of the Rasmussen poll. Currently that is 45%, down from the tallied 50%. So if the election were held today without any campaigning at all I'd say Trump would receive 45%.

2020 is not a stroll. Incumbency is a massive edge. We need the best nominee possible and we need Trump's approval to remain where it is. If he rises even 2-3% then it's very problematic. That's why I hope he never shuts up, on twitter or anywhere else. Continue to remind us who you are and how you think.

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Response to Hoyt (Reply #7)

Mon Feb 11, 2019, 01:27 AM

14. In 2008, McCain got 45.7% and Obama got 52.9%. I'd expect something similar in 2020.

The days of the losing candidate getting less than 40% are long gone. Just as we're not likely to see a candidate get 400+ electoral votes. But Obama's 365 is within reach, I think, especially if Harris is our nominee.

Of course, Trump may not be on the ballot in 2020. More than likely he will be, but I won't be shocked if he resigns before then.

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Response to Miles Archer (Original post)

Mon Feb 11, 2019, 01:12 AM

12. 50% Approval Rating. "And that's just among his daughters."

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Response to Make7 (Reply #12)

Mon Feb 11, 2019, 01:36 AM

16. lol Gaslit POS.

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Response to Miles Archer (Original post)

Mon Feb 11, 2019, 01:35 AM

15. "Working HARD at LYING.. YOu GasLIT POS.

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Response to Cha (Reply #15)

Mon Feb 11, 2019, 03:16 AM

17. working hard at nothing! sitting around, stuffing your gut and lying online isn't "working"

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