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Sun Feb 10, 2019, 08:43 PM

Repeat Rapists


Research suggests that about two-thirds of college rapists are repeat offenders, who account for the great majority of rapes (over 90%), and that about one-fourth of college rapists admit to committing rapes over multiple years of college.

Again, those findings from a study of typical college men are mirrored by those from the Lisak and Miller and McWhorter et al. studies of older commuter students and Navy recruits. In those studies repeat rapists are 63% and 71% of the rapists, respectively, and the average number of rapes they report committing is around six (5.8 and 6.4). As shown below, the simple math dictates that, for these two studies, over 90% of all rapes that the men reported committing were perpetrated by the repeat rapists.

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Reply Repeat Rapists (Original post)
Fresh_Start Sunday OP
Jarqui Sunday #1
moriah Sunday #2
Jarqui Monday #3

Response to Fresh_Start (Original post)

Sun Feb 10, 2019, 09:49 PM

1. Research suggests

"One commonly cited figure holds that 5 percent of rape allegations are found to be false"

I've seen between 2% and 8% in other stats on this.

So let's use the 5% figure above - since it seems to be an "average" of these results:

The chance that both women are lying about Fairfax is .05 x .05 = 0.25%.
Therefore, the chance at least one of them was raped is 99.75%

From that
The chance that at least one of three accusers was raped is 99.99%

The chance that at least one of the four Kavanaugh accusers was sexually assaulted is 99.9994%

The chance that at least one of eight accusers was sexually assaulted is twice as good as a DNA match.
So on that basis, Bill Cosby is guilty many times over.

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Response to Jarqui (Reply #1)

Sun Feb 10, 2019, 11:55 PM

2. At the same time, each allegation must be examined individually.

Personally, I believe the accusation that has the best likelihood of being *able* to be investigated is Meredith Watson's.

NC has had no statute of limitations on rape since the '70s. She has outcry witnesses, and a story that could possibly be proven/disproven. And, while this may sound terrible, and I don't have much faith in educational institutions to attempt to protect ex-students vs their reputation... the fact she says it wasn't her first rape on Duke's campus gives another way to ascertain her story's veracity. Fairfax really could only disprove Tyson's allegation by finding evidence they remained in contact after 2004 -- and while in real courts it's innocent until proven guilty, the difficulty in proving cutting of contact for either party is magnified by this being 15 years ago.

Also, while truthfully either case would, under ordinary circumstances, likely never see a courtroom if reported this late -- MA may have had its 15-year SOL in 2004. NC doesn't have a SOL. Pressure to be politically correct might make the individual prosecutors set aside their usual concern for their win/loss ratio, and at least put it before a grand jury.

But ... unless the outcry witnesses are very credible, Duke's investigation comes up with nothing to suggest she falsely cried rape in the past (honestly I suspect silence on their part will indicate that, if they find evidence that discredits the other allegation she made against a different student, it will be publicized widely), and she gets a VERY sympathetic jury...

I think it getting past a grand jury is unlikely. At least in ordinary circumstances.

I can't blame either woman for not filing a police report then. I do think that Fairfax could demand that the Boston and Durham PDs investigate the allegation specific to their jurisdictions now, which would essentially force the accuser's hands and make them be interviewed by police (or decline, which would kill the cases). How that'd be taken by victim's rights activists, I don't know, and it does put him at risk of a false conviction if he really is innocent -- which is why it's a strategy I'd only undertake in his shoes if I knew I *was* innocent and felt I had good enough attorneys. (Sometimes wealth enough to hire a decent attorney can overcome institutionalized racism.)

But he could also say something like, "As a former prosecutor investigating human trafficking, my honor demands that I open my schedule for interviews by the Boston and/or Durham Police Departments at their convenience. All sexual assault allegations should be taken seriously enough to be thoroughly investigated by law enforcement, especially if the statute of limitations has not expired, and I'd be a hypocrite to say that didn't apply to an accusation against me."

Yes, it's amping the game, and it might not be necessary if Duke's internal investigation discredits her. And I have to admit that even if both incidents happened exactly as these women said, conviction at this late date is unlikely. It's not directly demanding they file police reports, but definitely raises the question of why they have not.

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Response to moriah (Reply #2)

Mon Feb 11, 2019, 12:53 AM

3. I believe that I read the 15 year statute of limitations for rape in MA stops

tolling when the person leaves the state so there is possibly of more time there. But July 2004 was the Democratic National Convention in Boston so she still has time anyway.

The civil statute of limitations for personal injury appears to have expired years ago in both states.

As Fairfax has counter claimed both encounters were consensual and they both acknowledge that they knew each other, a whole bunch of potential evidence is off the table. The women have to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that he forced himself on them. Without any physical evidence and no witnesses that saw him actually do this, I agree with you that "conviction at this late date is unlikely".

However, if they continue and testify at his impeachment, they could end his political career - which would be a measure of justice and a service to the public (if at least one of them is telling the truth - which I think is highly probable).

The problem for Fairfax is that it is equally difficult for him to prove he is innocent. He's innocent until proven guilty. But in the court of public opinion ... time will tell.

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