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Sat Feb 9, 2019, 01:57 AM

Average tax refund down 8.4 percent in first filing week

Average tax refund down 8.4 percent in first filing week

By AARON LORENZO at Politico

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/08/average-tax-refund-down-1158440

"SNIP.....

The average tax refund from the IRS dropped 8.4 percent in the first week of the 2019 filing season compared to the same period last year, according to agency statistics.

The dip, to $1,865 from $2,035, is an early barometer of the season, which is being watched more closely than usual because it reflects the first full year under the 2017 tax overhaul and comes on the heels of a protracted government shutdown that hit the IRS just as it was gearing up for the annual exercise.

....


The data reflect only one week of filing in a process that will last until April 15 for most taxpayers, and refund predictions by tax experts have been all over the map. Morgan Stanley has estimated they will rise by 26 percent, but others are less optimistic.

“There are going to be a lot of unhappy people over the next month,” said Edward Karl, vice president of taxation for the American Institute of CPAs. “Taxpayers want a large refund."


.....SNIP"



 

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Response to applegrove (Original post)

Sat Feb 9, 2019, 02:01 AM

1. A lot of folks are going to be none too happy, and what are the republicans going to do, blame it on

the Democrats, when they had the majority


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Response to applegrove (Original post)

Sat Feb 9, 2019, 04:55 AM

2. K&R

I'm not too happy myself.

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Response to applegrove (Original post)

Sat Feb 9, 2019, 05:09 AM

3. H&R had predicted about half would see increases, half decreases.

It'd only be a surprise if if the decreases in refunds were NOT larger than the increases for the working classes.

Most people over-withhold by large amounts, so the increase in those who'll actually end up owing money is expected to be fairly low, don't remember, but I think somewhere around the 10%ish region, but we'll be hearing from a lot of them.

After all, these days in our fabulously wealthy beyond imagination nation, many working people have already pared their lives down to fit their shrinking means, including trimming over-withholding, and all extra bills become debt.

Of course, however it plays out, this is the best it will get. The working classes will get hit harder and harder each year after, of course, since the various tax "cuts" are written to expire over time.


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Response to applegrove (Original post)

Sat Feb 9, 2019, 07:44 AM

4. My personal observation of a cousin who saw his taxes go up by $4,000....karma as he

had voted for GOP all his life and for trump. Be lots of unhappy trump voters, mostly in blue states

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Response to applegrove (Original post)

Sat Feb 9, 2019, 07:56 AM

5. Morgan Stanley may still be right

When Warren Buffet walks into the room, the average wealth of the people in that room goes up a thousand percent and it’s the same thing here. Most rich people have to wait for documents etc so they file later.

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Response to TheFarseer (Reply #5)

Sat Feb 9, 2019, 08:05 AM

7. Or maybe the whole thing was just a scam.

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Response to applegrove (Original post)

Sat Feb 9, 2019, 08:04 AM

6. I'm hearing about enormous drops. For my own, I think I am losing about 10K in deductions,

which translates to thousands of dollars more owed.

But it's all for a good cause. Those billionaires needed more money!

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Response to applegrove (Original post)

Sat Feb 9, 2019, 08:14 AM

8. Is this the right metric?

My tax adviser has told me that for many folks their witholdings would have adjusted downwards throughout last year meaning lower refunds for many. Surely a better metric would be to determine actual withholding for 2018 compared to previous years. My situation was unique in 2018 so it will be tricky to know where I end up. 2019 will be easier to figure out.

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Response to applegrove (Original post)

Sat Feb 9, 2019, 08:21 AM

9. Rather than refund, I wish they would compare taxes paid or effective rate

Refunds can be higher or lower depending on what was withheld from checks or paid in. Many people decreased their deductions thus increasing their withholding to insure they had enough in not to get a penalty. A large refund just means you withheld too much.

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Response to applegrove (Original post)

Sat Feb 9, 2019, 09:18 AM

10. Wait until the millionaires and billionaires file theirs

Watch that number rise

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