Lyndon Johnson and Civil Rights lost the south for a generation or more

[dsc]

is Trump and the wall doing the same with the West? If you look at the states that contain or are west of the Rocky Mountains, they are very much trending Democratic or are Democratic with the exception of states with very few people. Alaska, Hawaii, Washington, Oregon, California, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Utah, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, and Nevada all contain or are west of the Rockies. In terms of Senate seats we have 15 out of 26. Governorships we have 8 of 13. If you include California we destroy in terms of House seats and electoral votes but even without it we have a majority of house seats in every state with multiple house seats except Utah and won the electoral votes by a substantial margin. That hasn't always been the case. As recently as 1988 we lost California. We lost Colorado in 2000 and 2004, we lost New Mexico in 2000 and 2004. New Mexico and Nevada had GOP governors until this year. Arizona's congressional delegation was majority GOP until this year. A gay Democrat got elected governor in Colorado by double digits, a bisexual woman got elected governor in Oregon by the high single digits, a bisexual Democrat got elected to the Senate from Arizona by 3 points. Cory Gardner is dead man walking in Colorado. We have a legitimate shot at winning Arizona in 2020 (first time since Clinton's win in 96). We have a Democratic representative from Utah. In short, Trump is killing the GOP in the populated west which is one of the fastest growing regions in the country.

The West will gain either 4 or 3 seats in 2022. Arizona, Colorado, Oregon, and Montana all are set to gain a seat. California could lose one or stay level. The other states are unchanged. Arizona has a non partisan redistricting regime, Colorado and Oregon are Democratic controlled, Montana is split. Currently only Montana is majority GOP in the house for this set of states. We could well win the four new seats 3 to 1.

Trump is killing the GOP in this region. He is doing to the GOP in the entire west what Pete Wilson did to the GOP in California.

[Blue_true]

1. What is killing the GOP in the West and everywhere else is increased diversity and economic growth.

As California, Oregon, Washington, New Mexico, Colorado became more diverse and developed diverse economies, they became more hostile terrain for the GOP. Virginia, Noryh Carolina, Georgia are moving in the same direction, Virginia much faster than the other two. My prediction, the GOP, unless it changes, will only be able to win economically backward states, and a state like Utah that has a strong church culture (but even in Utah they are starting to lose urban areas).