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Fri Jan 11, 2019, 02:58 AM

Interesting perspective from 538

The bottom center graphic is the graphic key.

[link:https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-5-key-constituencies-of-the-2020-democratic-primary/|

“The 5 Corners Of The 2020 Democratic Primary”

?w=2048

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Arrow 16 replies Author Time Post
Reply Interesting perspective from 538 (Original post)
fleabiscuit Jan 11 OP
Cha Jan 11 #1
fleabiscuit Jan 11 #2
Cha Jan 11 #4
fleabiscuit Jan 11 #9
Cha Jan 11 #12
DRoseDARs Jan 11 #14
Hermit-The-Prog Jan 11 #11
GeoWilliam750 Jan 11 #3
OnDoutside Jan 11 #5
SunSeeker Jan 11 #6
Cha Jan 11 #8
SunSeeker Jan 11 #10
Cha Jan 11 #13
canetoad Jan 11 #7
Cha Jan 11 #15
DavidDvorkin Jan 11 #16

Response to fleabiscuit (Original post)

Fri Jan 11, 2019, 03:35 AM

1. Yes, it is interesting, flea.

Thank You!

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Response to Cha (Reply #1)

Fri Jan 11, 2019, 03:43 AM

2. You're welcome Cha.

My fleabrain sees Kamala earning the widest score. That gives me a happy.

She was on Colbert tonight.

Cha!

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Response to fleabiscuit (Reply #2)

Fri Jan 11, 2019, 04:03 AM

4. That's what I saw and I

was delighted!

I saw a youtube of her on the View, Jan 8th.. and that's the first time I've heard her talk.. and, I was really impressed.

She has a great sense of humor, a caring and confident attitude, and a command of facts.

She said it will be a family decision whether she runs or not. From what I've been reading today.. her family said "Yes!"

I bet she had fun on Colbert's.. am I right?

flea

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Response to Cha (Reply #4)

Fri Jan 11, 2019, 04:30 AM

9. Yes she did.

Colbert sorta lightly tried to push her to say she was running but she sidestepped it pretty well. She introduced a new picture book for kids “Superheroes Are Everywhere” but the prospect of her running was heavy in the air.

I’m excited with the idea and hope she does. Heads are going to explode.

I have to turn in for the night.

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Response to fleabiscuit (Reply #9)

Fri Jan 11, 2019, 04:56 AM

12. Kamala rhylmes with

Pamela.

So brilliant and she writes books for kids and adults!

President Obama wrote a kids' book, too.. "For Thee I Sing".

Kamala is only 3 years younger than Obama!

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Response to Cha (Reply #12)

Fri Jan 11, 2019, 08:36 AM

14. Crunched some numbers in Excel, graph doesn't show whole picture. Harris dominates the spread.

If each ring on those pentagons counts as a point between 1 and 5, and each corner is weighted based on 538's figuring each group as a percentage of the total Democratic electorate (Party Loyalists 30%, The Left 25%, Hispanic/Asian 20%, Black 19%, Millennials And Friends 6%), Harris has very strong support at a smidge above 75% of all Democratic voters. Her nearest contender is Sherrod at a smidge below 65%. Klobuchar is alone at the bottom in the 50-55% bracket, Warren and Sanders sit in the 55-60% bracket, and everyone else crowds into the 60-65% bracket. I mean strong support for everyone, none of the ten here below 54%, but Harris is way ahead of this pack sitting way up there at 75%. It's lonely at that top...

That all said, I have concerns about how their population percentages were arrived at in general. I strongly object in particular to them defining the Millennial Generation as starting in 1982 based on an outdated book published in 1991, right in the middle of the generation while it was still forming and ill-defined. Even the page they link to shows 82 to be an outlier, many thinkers were putting the starting year in the opposite direction into the end of the 70s. Most everyone is in agreement now that 1980-81 was the start of the generation. The starting year matters because if one of your 5 corners is going to be based on such a blanket group as an age generation, then moving the year around changes the population of that group by millions of people. Roughly 3.6 million children were born in 1981 in the US, myself included. Millennials "and Friends" is such a gross and lazy cop-out. And what of the Boomers? Are they all just lumped into the Party Loyalists corner? They at least acknowledged that they struggled how to handle Hispanic and Asian voters. But their handling of their Millennial corner was just sloppy. I mean Christ, based on an outdated book using a year no one uses, cited by a website dedicated to IT matters and not sociological studies and research. What, was this a site Nate had bookmarked in his browser and one day this popped up and he thought "Huh. Interesting." and gave it no further thought? Whatever the reason, it was sloppy.

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Response to fleabiscuit (Reply #2)

Fri Jan 11, 2019, 04:35 AM

11. bwahaha!

Early on, I called out a dream for Harris / Booker. That was met by tut-tuts over experience, etc. Looks like it isn't too far out, after all.

I'll settle for Warren / Harris or Harris / Warren, though.


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Response to fleabiscuit (Original post)

Fri Jan 11, 2019, 03:49 AM

3. Very interesting, indeed

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Response to fleabiscuit (Original post)

Fri Jan 11, 2019, 04:14 AM

5. That is interesting, thanks. Not surprised that Harris is attracting widespread support, but a

little surprised Amy Klobuchar isn't similarly popular....perhaps when people get to know her more, that will change.

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Response to fleabiscuit (Original post)

Fri Jan 11, 2019, 04:19 AM

6. The CA primary getting moved up should help Harris too.

We love our Kamala!


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Response to SunSeeker (Reply #6)

Fri Jan 11, 2019, 04:27 AM

8. Alright! Now I love

her, too.

When is the California primary, SunSeeker?

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Response to SunSeeker (Reply #10)

Fri Jan 11, 2019, 04:58 AM

13. Good on you Californians!

Mahalo

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Response to fleabiscuit (Original post)

Fri Jan 11, 2019, 04:24 AM

7. Very interesting

So, roughly, the candidates with most appeal, in order are:

Kamala Harris
Cory Booker
Elizabeth warren

then about the same

Joe Biden
Beto
Bernie
Julian Castro
Kirstin Gillibrand
Sherrod Brown

With Klobuchar running last.

I might not be judging the extent of support well as the irregular shapes make it tricky, but great graphic. Thanks for posting.

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Response to fleabiscuit (Original post)

Fri Jan 11, 2019, 03:26 PM

15. KICK!!

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Response to fleabiscuit (Original post)

Fri Jan 11, 2019, 03:45 PM

16. Very interesting.

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