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Mon Jan 7, 2019, 06:11 PM

 

The U.S. has never elected 4 consecutive 2 term Presidents

There have been 3 consecutive 2 term Presidents but only twice; Jefferson, Madison & Monroe and Clinton, Bush & Obama. But there have never been 4 consecutive 2 term Presidents.

Doesn't mean that it is impossible but it does go against the historical trend.

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Reply The U.S. has never elected 4 consecutive 2 term Presidents (Original post)
Trumpocalypse Jan 2019 OP
Maru Kitteh Jan 2019 #1
Trumpocalypse Jan 2019 #2
sandensea Jan 2019 #3
jberryhill Jan 2019 #4
Trumpocalypse Jan 2019 #5
Timewas Jan 2019 #6
triron Jan 2019 #7
Crunchy Frog Jan 2019 #9
customerserviceguy Jan 2019 #8

Response to Trumpocalypse (Original post)


Response to Maru Kitteh (Reply #1)

Mon Jan 7, 2019, 06:15 PM

2. Thanks nt

 

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Response to Trumpocalypse (Original post)

Mon Jan 7, 2019, 06:24 PM

3. There a wild card here though:

Electronic vote flipping.

It's no secret one of the GOPee's long-term goals is to impose Saddam-like elections, where they'd win no matter what.

I just hope to go the pertinent authorities are extra vigilant in 2020, as they seem to have been last November.

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Response to Trumpocalypse (Original post)

Mon Jan 7, 2019, 06:34 PM

4. Probability does not work that way

The sample space is too low for there to be any "statistical rule" on that.

A simpler way to look at it is to hypothesis test on the basis that any incumbent president running for re-election has around a 50% chance of being re-elected. (which is accurate enough at roughly 22 out of 45)

So given that terms are limited to two, you are looking at relatively low a priori probability event in the first place - i.e. the a priori probability of getting a run of four 50% probability events, which is around 1 in 16. However, the probability of any single re-election remains at 50%.

In other words, you can't say, after a run of three two-termers, that the odds of re-election of the current incumbent is 1 in 16. It does not work that way. It remains 50%.

That's like saying it is very improbable for a roulette wheel to come up black five times in a row, so if it comes up black four times in a row, then you somehow have better odds by betting red on the fifth spin. That is probably one of the most common misconceptions about probability. Vegas loves people who think that way.

These are successive independent events, not joint events.

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Response to jberryhill (Reply #4)

Mon Jan 7, 2019, 07:11 PM

5. I'm not talking about probability

 

I'm talking about historical trends. Two different things.

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Response to Trumpocalypse (Original post)

Mon Jan 7, 2019, 09:21 PM

6. If that

Is even a possibility that t-rump is still in office and able to run we have already lost.

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Response to Trumpocalypse (Original post)

Mon Jan 7, 2019, 09:25 PM

7. Trump wasn't even elected th first time!

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Response to triron (Reply #7)

Mon Jan 7, 2019, 10:11 PM

9. Neither was Baby Bush.

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Response to Trumpocalypse (Original post)

Mon Jan 7, 2019, 10:04 PM

8. And the US has never elected

someone who has not either served in a government position, including a military general.

Until two years ago. The old "rules" probably never were rules, if they keep being broken.

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