Beto O'Rourke Emerges as a Wildcard for Democrats

[applegrove]

Beto O’Rourke Emerges as a Wildcard for Democrats

December 9, 2018 at 9:40 am EST By Taegan Goddard 265 Comments

https://politicalwire.com/2018/12/09/beto-orourke-emerges-as-a-wildcard-for-democrats/

"SNIP.....

New York Times: “Rep. Beto O’Rourke has emerged as the wild card of the presidential campaign-in-waiting for a Democratic Party that lacks a clear 2020 front-runner. After a star-making turn in his close race against Sen. Ted Cruz, Mr. O’Rourke is increasingly serious about a 2020 run — a development that is rousing activists in early-voting states, leading veterans of former President Barack Obama’s political operation (and Mr. Obama himself) to offer their counsel and hampering would-be rivals who are scrambling to lock down influential supporters and strategists as future campaign staff.”

“Advisers to other prospective Democratic candidates for 2020 acknowledge that Mr. O’Rourke is worthy of their concern. His record-setting success with small donors would test the grass-roots strength of progressives like Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Sen. Bernie Sanders. His sometimes saccharine call to summon the nation’s better angels would compete with the likely pitch of Sen. Cory Booker.”

“And his appeal to some former Obama advisers — and, potentially, his electoral coalition of young people, women and often infrequent voters — could complicate a possible run for former Vice President Joe Biden, who would aim to win back many of his former boss’s constituencies.”

......SNIP"

[msongs]

1. looks like media is bored and wants to gin up some action nt

[Bucky]

11. As a Texan, I can tell you he's really inspirational

I'm not sold on him, yet, but his unscripted speeches and willingness to go and whip up support in the most conservative corners of the state show he is capable of running a 50 state strategy (which is of course really a 20 State strategy, but everyone else is just going to concentrate on 5 or 6 States).

He's also a substantiv speaker and has dependably liberal record in the house. He could be a game-changer, which Biden and Bernie certainly would not be

[Cha]

20. You described

very well why I like him too, Bucky. Way over here on Kauai.

He has Fire and he's a Uniter.. I see Beto's fundraising efforts are stellar, too. All the better to fight the fascists.

[California_Republic]

2. At the very least we should see him speaking at the convention

[SFnomad]

3. With Beto being a Texan and Texas already turning towards purple ...

I think he'd put Texas in play ... bigly.

[JCMach1]

4. Texas Primary is also moving to very early

[Garrett78]

6. The Texas primary will be on Super Tuesday just like it was in 2016.

The only major change to the schedule is California moving up to Super Tuesday.

[JCMach1]

28. California AND Texas on March 3

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/2020-democratic-primary-california-texas-look-become-new-iowa-new-n945491

[Garrett78]

30. Again, Texas was on Super Tuesday in 2016, as well.

Some of the headlines about this have been misleading.

Aside from CA moving up, the schedule hasn't been changed much from 2016. Here's the first 6 weeks in 2016:

2/1: IA
2/9: NH
2/20: NV
2/27: SC
3/1: AL, AR, CO, GA, MA, MN, OK, TN, TX, VA, VT
3/5: KS, LA, NE
3/6: ME
3/8: MI, MS
3/15: FL, IL, MO, NC, OH

And here's what the first 6 weeks look like for 2020:

2/3: IA
2/11: NH
2/22: NV
2/29: SC
3/3: AL, CA, MA, NC, OK, TN, TX, VA, VT
3/7: LA
3/10: ID, MI, MS, MO, OH
3/17: AZ, FL, IL

[JCMach1]

31. CA and TX on Super Tuesday will create a big bifurcation depending on the candidates...

[Garrett78]

33. As I posted in another thread:

California moving up may not have as much impact as one might expect.

California is significant in terms of how many delegates we have, but we may see a major vote splitting if half a dozen or more candidates (including multiple Californians) are still in the race. Because, thankfully, Democrats don't have a winner-take-all primary system like Republicans do.

Iowa and New Hampshire will still have a disproportionate amount of influence. But because the field is expected to be larger than ever, there may be more candidates than usual by the time Super Tuesday happens. This means California and the other 8 states that vote that day may see a lot of vote splitting. And the winner of California won't necessarily do great in those other 8 states.

[Garrett78]

7. Maybe, but he did just lose a statewide race against an unpopular Ted Cruz.

[SFnomad]

8. No Democratic Senator has been with 10 points in Texas in the last 30 years

Many Democrats have lost the state by at least 20 points.

Beto just lost by 2 1/2 points ... in Texas, statewide. That Rafael was "unpopular" doesn't mean much to the die-hard Republicans that are here.

[Garrett78]

9. He did great, no doubt.

But he still lost in a blue wave election. I'm a big Beto fan, and I do think we'll force Republicans to campaign in Texas (even without Beto on the ticket), but I'm not optimistic that Texas is truly in play yet. I do think Arizona and maybe Georgia will be in play, however.

[SFnomad]

14. I didn't say Texas was in play ... I said Texas, with Beto running, is in play

Hometown favorite could be enough to swing the state. Beto would certainly force Republicans to spend a lot more money in Texas then they would have to otherwise.

[Garrett78]

25. I got that. But Trump is more popular than Cruz, as crazy as that might seem.

[Cha]

21. Yeah, those statistics

are important to note.

He almost won a statewide election in Texas! Not to mention all the money he scored to fight fascism.

[EffieBlack]

12. Hillary beats Trump by 3 million votes - she's a terrible candidate

Beto loses to Cruz by 200,000 votes - he's our next bright hope.

When it's pointed out what Hillary was up against: "So what! If she were a better candidate, could have outmaneuvered him!"

When it's pointed out that Beto couldn't beat Cruz: "So what! Look what he was up against!"

Just saying ...

[SFnomad]

15. I've never said Secretary Clinton was a terrible candidate

There really wasn't that much more she could have done differently. Of course there are those that say "If she only did this ...". And if she had, would the change have consequences elsewhere?

Beto got Texas excited. If he can do that here, he can do that from coast to coast.

[EffieBlack]

16. If you didn't say it, I wasn't referring to you ...

But there is a glaring double standard on full display on the board.

[SFnomad]

17. Well, you were replying to my post, so, there is that

And there are glaring double standards all over the board.
Bernie Sanders and Kirsten Gillibrand are some of the biggest.

But that doesn't change the fact that Beto got Texas excited, for a Democrat. And not only did he get them excited, he got them out and voting too. I would have loved to watch Rafael get his ass handed to himself ... but Beto promised that if he won he would commit to those six years as Senator. In a way, I'm happy he's got the chance to go national. If he won, he wouldn't be able to run until 2024 ... and with any hope, that will be a Democrat running for reelection. This could be his only shot.

[betsuni]

18. THIS.

[Bucky]

13. If Texas is in play, it's over for the GOP

Tactically, Texas is still skirmisher country. I really don't think it's winnable for the Democrats yet, but if we can get it close enough down here, it would make the Republicans divert a lot of resources that they might otherwise spend in the swing states around the Great Lakes.

[Gothmog]

5. I like Beto a great deal and he will do well in Texas

[sarcasmo]

10. Klobuchar/Beto

[EffieBlack]

19. Still looking for the "Stacey Abrams/Andrew Gillum: Dems Next Hope?" pieces

After all, they came within a hair of winning their former Confederate states - while being black, no less - and would have won if the elections weren't stolen. But they never seem to end up in the punditry's 2020 Democratic Nominee Sweepstakes.

For some reason ...

[Garrett78]

22. Both are super impressive.

Their lack of federal government experience is a hindrance. State House to POTUS or even VPOTUS is quite a leap. Mayor to POTUS or VPOTUS is an even bigger leap. I hope they both run again or get cabinet posts, but VPOTUS is not totally out of the question either.

[EffieBlack]

23. Only two of seven presidents elected in the past 42 years had "federal government experience"

All of the others (except Trump) came directly from state government: Carter, Reagan, Clinton, GW Bush.

And the federal government experience the others had was considerably more than three terms in Congress. They were former senators (including a Senate Majority Leader), a House Minority Leader, a Secretary of the Navy, a couple of Generals, and, of course, a few vice presidents.

Being a Member of Congress is not and has rarely ever been considered a valuable stepping stone to the presidency. Of course, there can always be an exception, but please don't pretend that his six years in Congress confer some kind of special experiential status on Beto that others don't have by virtue of THEIR own backgrounds and experience.

[Garrett78]

24. But it's still going to be viewed as a better stepping stone than mayor to POTUS.

If either Abrams or Gillum were a governor, that changes things. Governor (an executive position) to POTUS is not unusual--you listed 4 examples.

Don't get me wrong, I have no doubt racism plays a role in how these respective politicians (all of whom I like very much) are viewed. And I'm not on the Beto for President bandwagon. But being a member of the US Congress trumps being a mayor or a member of Georgia's House (even if that member was the Minority Leader).

[EffieBlack]

27. "Viewed" by whom? One kind of experience "trumps" the other according to whom?

Other than people looking for excuses to elevate Beto's experience and diminish others without any actual basis?

[DFW]

26. Two years before the election?

Much as we Texas Democrats love Beto, his status as national star in the Democratic primaries of 2020 is, at this point, a media phenomenon as much as anything else. If one looks at his touted qualifications in the news stories, most of them that don't focus on his (undeniable) likeability are focusing on the fact that he's younger than 70.

IF Beto declares (and he'd be insane to do so at this point), and IF he gets some heavyweight backing that could give him some practical advice on foreign policy and economic issues (Hillary might be nice) as well as environmental issues (Howard might be nice), THEN his potential candidacy gets serious. Until he's gotten to the point where he's taken care of both, his presidential run is as much of a media creation as anything else. It would be a mistake if he decided to run based only on New York Times articles. They will tear him down as fast as they built him up if they get bored. If he's seen in New York having dinner with Hillary or Howard (or both, and THAT won't happen unless they WANT it to be seen), THEN I'll start to take those NYT articles more seriously.

[BannonsLiver]

34. It's not just a NYT article.

As for meetings, he’s already met with Obama. I’m not sure it gets any more important than Obama, with all due respect to Hillary. We’ll see what happens. I think people dismiss him at their own peril, and yes, there is a certain degree of overhyping as well.

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

29. I like Beto

But I'd like to see him get experience in a lower office before running for President.

[BannonsLiver]

35. He was in Congress for 3 terms

Is he as experienced as Hillary? No. But people need to quit acting like that doesn’t count. Like he’s just some mayor or something.

[Guppy]

39. what office would he win

in order to get more experience. If he doesn't run in 2020 or he is vp candidate that year then the earliest he runs is 2028. By that time everything he no longer has what he has now which is newness and youth.

[ananda]

32. Good! Beto is wonderful!!!

..

[Gothmog]

36. Beto been speaking to prominent black Democrats in recent days.

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

37. This explains why so many Bernie supporters came out swinging against Beto O'Rourke this week

Link to tweet

[McCamy Taylor]

38. Beto signs have NOT come down in my Texas neighborhood.

That means that his supporters are prepared to vote for him again in 2020 for whatever office he chooses. I believe there is a Texas Senate race in 2020. I also believe that in Texas you can run for Senate and President at the same time.

[Garrett78]

40. Cornyn is up for re-election in 2020.

There's no way Beto will run for both president and Cornyn's seat. I'd like to see him run for Cornyn's seat and take advantage of what should be a huge turnout for Dems in 2020. But, if I had to guess, I'd guess Beto will run for president instead. I don't think he'll get the nomination but he'll be on the shortlist for VP regardless of who does win the nomination.

[JI7]

41. i can see it coming down to Kamala Harris and Beto Orourke

and whoever wins the nomination will pick the other to be VP .