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Fri Dec 7, 2018, 12:42 AM

The Treasury yield curve just inverted, sounding the alarm for recession

The yield on the 5-year Treasury note fell below the yield on the 3-year note, meaning that investors were being paid more to hold U.S. government debt maturing in three years than comparable bonds maturing in five years. It’s not the major curve inversion that investors watch for — the 2-year note holding a higher yield than the 10-year note, which has preceded every U.S. recession since World War II — but it portends that the market is headed in that direction, analysts told Yahoo Finance.

Ian Lyngen, head of united rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets, said the inversion of 3- and 5-year yields has strengthened his belief that an inversion of the 2-year and 10-year yield will happen in late 2018 or early 2019.

“This solidifies not only my flattening bias but I think it will lead many players in the market who [expected the yield curve to steepen] to capitulate on that,” Lyngen said.

U.S. Treasury yields rose early on Monday after a deal between the U.S. and China to hold off on new tariffs. Shorter-dated yields rose faster than longer-dated yields, pushing the curve to invert between the 3- and 5-year yield.

more https://finance.yahoo.com/news/treasury-yield-curve-just-inverted-sounding-alarm-recession-194921816.html?ncid=facebook_yfsocialfa_wje3x23a50w&fbclid=IwAR3nEemU1G_RNPc85C8aRi4eyk-h__udff-StNNoxzNOYs82-nZ-K_yNiIA

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Reply The Treasury yield curve just inverted, sounding the alarm for recession (Original post)
Quixote1818 Friday OP
Wellstone ruled Friday #1
unblock Friday #2
unblock Friday #3
Achilleaze Friday #4
anarch Friday #5
duforsure Friday #6

Response to Quixote1818 (Original post)

Fri Dec 7, 2018, 12:54 AM

1. Have

been watching this develop for the last week or so. Let's add in the Brexit nightmare as well.

Plus Dipstick Donnie is crowing his Tariff Man crap. Now with the announced Layoffs,the sentiment of the Nation just went South big time.

Tomorrow is going to get damn interesting to say the least,Team Mueller,uncertainty in the Eouro Zone Banks,uncertainty with our Markets . Just what the hell can go wrong I ask.

A whole boat load of crap.

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Response to Wellstone ruled (Reply #1)


Response to Quixote1818 (Original post)

Fri Dec 7, 2018, 01:06 AM

3. The 10yr-2yr is the one that really matters, but that's down to just 12 basis points.

It could invert in a matter of days.

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Response to Quixote1818 (Original post)

Fri Dec 7, 2018, 06:35 AM

4. republicans have pissed all over America's economy

and democracy. Sad.

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Response to Achilleaze (Reply #4)

Fri Dec 7, 2018, 06:52 AM

5. that is literally what they always do

for at least the last half-century, every time they gain a position of relative power and can call the shots on economic and social policies...I mean, it works out for a small subset of people (for instance, some people "did very well" in the 2008 recession, because it allowed them to take advantage of their desperate, less fortunate fellow citizens), so they're generally keeping their real clients happy (largely at the expense of their rural white "base", ironically), but the Repubs seem to have been on a long-standing mission to widen the wealth gap and generally to tank the economy every time they come to power.

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Response to Quixote1818 (Original post)

Fri Dec 7, 2018, 07:35 AM

6. trumps trying to promote everything is really great under his policies

When in reality its heading downwards like it did to W Bush, but claiming its great. We should be wary of anyone that would do this to us again, and it could be worse than a recession , and the markets could crash a lot worse than its already showing signs of doing. Expecting someone as corrupt as trump and the republican party of being honest with the American people now it a waste of time. Do not believe anything they say, promote, or claim , and you'll be a lot closer to the truth.

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