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Thu Dec 6, 2018, 11:04 AM

We couldn't even get two 4% GDP quarters out of Trump's tax cuts.

And now that the economy is slowing down and we have no fiscal tools to stimulate it because of rising deficits.

"Stable genius."

24 replies, 656 views

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Reply We couldn't even get two 4% GDP quarters out of Trump's tax cuts. (Original post)
DemocratSinceBirth Thursday OP
Beakybird Thursday #1
DemocratSinceBirth Thursday #3
beachbum bob Thursday #17
bearsfootball516 Thursday #2
DemocratSinceBirth Thursday #4
unblock Thursday #10
DemocratSinceBirth Thursday #14
unblock Thursday #15
DemocratSinceBirth Thursday #16
former9thward Thursday #19
0rganism Thursday #13
Guppy Thursday #5
unblock Thursday #8
Guppy Thursday #18
unblock Thursday #20
Guppy Thursday #21
unblock Thursday #22
Guppy Thursday #23
DemocratSinceBirth Thursday #9
unblock Thursday #12
riversedge Thursday #6
unblock Thursday #7
WeekiWater Thursday #11
Johonny Thursday #24

Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Thu Dec 6, 2018, 11:09 AM

1. Fiscal tools?

Of course, another tax cut for the rich.

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Response to Beakybird (Reply #1)

Thu Dec 6, 2018, 11:10 AM

3. The Democratic House isn't going to pass a tax cut for the rich.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #3)

Thu Dec 6, 2018, 11:32 AM

17. democratic house wont be able to pass ANY legislation that will become law

unless McConnel and trump agrees

and thats about 100% unlikely

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Thu Dec 6, 2018, 11:09 AM

2. If we hit a recession in 2019 or 2020, he's absolutely done politically.

The only thing keeping him afloat right now is the economy. His 42 percent approval is stunningly low considering where the economy is right now. If we hit a recession, that's going to drop 10 points and he'll be completely toxic come 2020, similar to Bush in 2008.

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Response to bearsfootball516 (Reply #2)

Thu Dec 6, 2018, 11:10 AM

4. Except Bush was finishing his second term.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #4)

Thu Dec 6, 2018, 11:18 AM

10. the economy is not on track to suit donnie's political fortunes

it's hard to see a path to the economy looking even as good as now during the run-up to november 2020.

most likely, we'll be in a contraction or just coming out of it, with its effects still fresh on voters' minds.

hard to see how he either gets though it with a clearly booming economy after or avoids the contraction entirely.

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Response to unblock (Reply #10)

Thu Dec 6, 2018, 11:26 AM

14. It doesn't seem like nearly enough time for a slowdown and a recovery.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #14)

Thu Dec 6, 2018, 11:30 AM

15. not in the eyes of the public, anyway.

from an economist's perspective, we could easily have a contraction that lasts, say, 9 months, from 2019q2 through 2019q4.

technically, we'd be in a recovery in 2020, but it's not likely to feel that way for voters.

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Response to unblock (Reply #10)

Thu Dec 6, 2018, 11:30 AM

16. It's hard to see an economy as good as the one going in 2016.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #16)

Thu Dec 6, 2018, 11:59 AM

19. Are you remembering the same 2016?

U.S. economic growth slowed in 2016 to 1.6%

WASHINGTON The U.S. economy lost momentum in the final three months of 2016, closing out a year in which growth turned in the weakest performance in five years, with the yearly rate down to 1.6 percent.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-economic-growth-slowed-in-2016-to-1-9/

This is the main reason Clinton lost the upper Midwest.

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Response to bearsfootball516 (Reply #2)

Thu Dec 6, 2018, 11:24 AM

13. he's gonna need a war

watch his serpents' nest bend backwards trying to justify invading Iran.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Thu Dec 6, 2018, 11:11 AM

5. Anyone who took any level of economics

id you never stimulate a good economy. You leave stimulation for the recession. We played our hand and now we are fucked.

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Response to Guppy (Reply #5)

Thu Dec 6, 2018, 11:14 AM

8. they weren't really trying to stimulate the economy.

they were trying to pillage and loot the treasury, period.

the old "stimulate the economy" crap was pure b.s. to try to fool the masses.

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Response to unblock (Reply #8)

Thu Dec 6, 2018, 11:53 AM

18. That's a given

but to do it will eventually cause instability. Because you over stimulated the economy interest rates go up because the Fed is trying to curb inflation. Then everything starts to tumble.

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Response to Guppy (Reply #18)

Thu Dec 6, 2018, 12:04 PM

20. except they didn't really stimulate the economy much at all.

we increased the deficit by an insane amount for a measure that barely goosed the economy at a time when it didn't need it.

everything is starting to tumble primarily because of lack of confidence in donnie's economic management as he's taken fiscal stimulus out of the picture due to blowing it at the wrong time, and then he launches this idiotic random tariff nonsense that makes any kind of planning a minefield. that and the current expansion is already very long in the tooth.

imho, we'll have one more rate hike and then the economy and the financial markets will probably talk them out of any more.

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Response to unblock (Reply #20)

Thu Dec 6, 2018, 12:15 PM

21. I agree

we sold two properties last year. I figured get all the money you can while the market was hot. We are already seeing the slowdown in autos and real estate is slow. Next year could be ugly.

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Response to Guppy (Reply #21)

Thu Dec 6, 2018, 12:35 PM

22. indeed. this one will be painful for a number of reasons.

most obviously because we have an idiot in charge. even presidents who couldn't get anything through congress were able to provide the comfort of a president in charge, consoler-in-chief, etc. this one will only make everything actually worse *and* feel worse.

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Response to unblock (Reply #22)

Thu Dec 6, 2018, 12:44 PM

23. He'll call everyone

losers.

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Response to Guppy (Reply #5)

Thu Dec 6, 2018, 11:16 AM

9. Fiscal policy should be neutral.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #9)

Thu Dec 6, 2018, 11:24 AM

12. i think we should run a balanced budget or surplus when the economy is good

and run a deficit when we're in a contraction, partly to help people in need and partly to stimulate the economy when it needs it.

of course, i think "stimulate the economy" is most effective by doing things like making sure poor people have money (as they tend to spend it locally, which bests stimulates the economy) or increasing government spending directly.

cutting tax rates for the rich helps the economy only in relatively rare situation, like when there is plenty of demand but commerce is constrained by a lack of investment capital. only then *might* a tax cut for the rich make sense in terms of the overall economy.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Thu Dec 6, 2018, 11:12 AM

6. #trumpSlump

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Thu Dec 6, 2018, 11:13 AM

7. and a big chunk of the extra growth we did get was actually tariff-induced

companies trying to get orders in before tariffs hit, which at best just shifted growth from a later quarter to an earlier quarter, and at worse is a negative dislocation and overall drag on the economy.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Thu Dec 6, 2018, 11:18 AM

11. Tax cuts as they were done seem to show...

an initial large shift in money that is recognized by the markets and other specific investment sectors. Then it becomes more stable as it becomes a known quantity. Much of it gets invested, hoarded, or spent on high ticket items. None of which means it is spent in a way that helps across the board. The initial shift simply generated a bubble. The small tax cuts at the lower end were simply dumped into the economy. A portion of the high end tax cuts were dumped in areas reflected in the GDP as well. They use the economy as a selling point for their tax cuts but it's little more than a payback to supporters, buying future support, and a love for greed.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Thu Dec 6, 2018, 01:06 PM

24. The yield curve inverted. Winter is coming.

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