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Wed Dec 5, 2018, 10:10 PM

It's the worst time in decades to make money in the markets

Market statisticians are falling over each other in 2018 to describe the pain being felt across asset classes. One venerable shop frames it this way: Things haven’t been this bad since Richard Nixon’s presidency.

Ned Davis Research puts markets into eight big asset classes — everything from bonds to U.S. and international stocks to commodities. And not a single one of them is on track to post a return this year of more than 5 percent, a phenomenon last observed in 1972, according to Ed Clissold, a strategist at the firm.

In terms of losses, investors have seen far worse. But going by the breadth of assets failing to deliver upside, 2018 is starting to look historic.

Nothing’s working, not large or small-cap stocks in the U.S., not international or emerging equities, not Treasuries, investment-grade bonds, commodities or real estate. Most of them are down, and the ones that are up are doing so by percentages in the low single-digits.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/its-the-worst-time-in-decades-to-make-money-in-the-markets/ar-BBQxPmZ?li=BBnbfcN


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Reply It's the worst time in decades to make money in the markets (Original post)
Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin Dec 5 OP
doc03 Dec 5 #1
Wellstone ruled Dec 5 #2
PoindexterOglethorpe Dec 5 #3
klook Dec 5 #6
PoindexterOglethorpe Dec 6 #7
doc03 Dec 6 #8
PoindexterOglethorpe Dec 6 #9
brooklynite Dec 5 #4
Kajun Gal Dec 5 #5
backscatter712 Dec 6 #10
backscatter712 Dec 6 #11

Response to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Original post)

Wed Dec 5, 2018, 10:19 PM

1. My IRA is invested in a retirement date fund. At my age the allocation is about 40% stocks and 60%.

bonds. Since I retired in 2010 I have made money every year until 2018. The stock market hasn't made anything and
the bond market is down because of the rising interest rates. One positive is the MM funds finally started paying
a some interest after years of nothing. But even that doesn't keep pace with inflation.

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Response to doc03 (Reply #1)

Wed Dec 5, 2018, 10:39 PM

2. Seeing the same

scenerio . And the latest sell off in equities is just brutal. The Nifty Fifty are not the Nasty Fifty.

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Response to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Original post)

Wed Dec 5, 2018, 10:48 PM

3. I'm doing just fne.

I have a good financial advisor. I've also been in the market for a long enough time that I simply don't sweat the small stuff. I'm in it for the long haul.

What too many people lose sight of is that the market goes up, the market goes down. There will always be down years, but in the long run the up years more than make up for it. If you try to time the market you're a fool.

There are some other basic rules, such as pulling money out that you will need in cash, say for a kid's college education. Make sure you have reasonably liquidity in retirement. Don't buy and sell in the short term, and don't allow a brokerage firm or financial person to do the same. If you don't understand something, ask lots of questions. Of course, that applies to lots of things, such as your mortgage.

And keep in mind that the market is up from the beginning of the year. Not by much, but it's up. There will inevitably be a down year or several down the road. It's the people who panic and sell into the falling market that create wonderful buying opportunities for the rest of us.

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Response to PoindexterOglethorpe (Reply #3)

Wed Dec 5, 2018, 11:28 PM

6. Correct.

It was I believe in one of Jack Bogle’s books that I first encountered the interesting factoid that the U.S. stock market has recorded a return of approximately 10 percent over every 10-year period since records have been kept, including the 10 years spanning the Great Depression. (Not sure if that’s still correct, but I bet it’s close.)

Also — as a relative of mine who was a financial advisor liked to say whenever the stock market was down — “Everything’s on sale!!”

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Response to klook (Reply #6)

Thu Dec 6, 2018, 01:09 AM

7. Right.

As you clearly get it, no one year ever returns exactly that 10%, but averaged out over time, it's the correct number.

I'll be honest about having been badly hurt in the tech bubble and crash, but by hanging in there and continuing to invest and stay in the market, I'm doing fine.

I will admit that right now I'm anxious that the market is poised for a longer term down side. I'm 70, retired, living on SS, a small pension, and my investments. Thanks to the previously mentioned financial advisor, I also have two annuities that I am going to cash in, so to speak, and start taking the payout, which will last the rest of my life. All of that will more than cover my basic expenses. There is still an investment portfolio from which I can continue to take money, much of which I hope to save, at least in the short term for things like the various trips I take. I am also hoping that in the next five to ten years I can take one major trip each year to someplace exotic and interesting. Right now high on my agenda is a cruise to Hawaii. My biggest problem is that I'm a single traveller, and there's a hefty premium to be paid. But I'll work it out somehow.

For me, and many of us my age, the parental generation had been badly scarred by the Crash and the Depression. My own parents were too young to have invested in the market before the crash, but their parents had to a small extent, and were ever after completely opposed to any such investing. My own parents, to be honest, never had any extra money to invest, so perhaps it's a complete non issue. But for people my age, Baby Boomers and those after us, we've often had extra cash that could be invested. (I recognize that many are living absolutely hand to mouth, paycheck to paycheck, and while I understand their lot, I'm simply overlooking them. With apologies because I don't intend to come across as unfeeling, but I'm talking about those with some extra money.) In the mid 1970s, a fellow student at my community college happened to work for Merrill Lynch, and I was both fascinated and had some money to invest. She was wonderful, put me in appropriate investments, and gave me the confidence to continue. I'm quite grateful to her.

I keep on being astonished that here on DU people gleefully post every downturn in the Dow, and never seem to post the days it goes up. There's also a complete lack of understanding that anyone who has a 401k or an IRA or a pension of any sort (and they still exist even if not as common as before) needs a long term rising market.

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Response to PoindexterOglethorpe (Reply #3)

Thu Dec 6, 2018, 11:26 AM

8. I agree but when you are 70 years old you

may not make the long haul. That's why they advise you to
limit your exposure to equities. But in the 2018 nothing is making money. I was wise to stay in the market back in 2009 it went up almost 300% under Obama. In 2017 the market did great but now reality has set in and Trump's policies have kicked in. Seams every Republican leaves us in a recession.

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Response to doc03 (Reply #8)

Thu Dec 6, 2018, 01:06 PM

9. I believe the general recommendation

is to remain about 60% in equities, even at my age. I will tell you that one of my annuities is half equities, half bonds. The other is about two-thirds bonds, one third equities. The other investments are more heavily weighted to equities, so the overall balance seems to be what it should be.

And I am realistic about the possibility of a serious market decline in the near term. I've been through them before, so I'm not as concerned as some.

I do think I should have a talk with my financial guy about shifting some of my investments to utility funds that will pay a good dividend, which is a very good strategy for the long term.

In one book I read about the Great Depression, the author pointed out that many companies that traditionally paid dividends continued to do so during that time, and as the price of their stock went down, the yield grew enormously. Problem was, that people either didn't have the money to buy the stocks, or were afraid to do so for years.

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Response to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Original post)

Wed Dec 5, 2018, 10:50 PM

4. The markets hate uncertainty.....

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Response to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Original post)

Wed Dec 5, 2018, 11:01 PM

5. Blue chip stocks only!

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Response to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Original post)

Thu Dec 6, 2018, 01:14 PM

10. My dad moved his investments into cash funds the instant Drumpf got "elected".

It doesn't take a psychic to figure out what's going to happen to the economy once Twitler started going Smoot-Hawley, and doing all of his other acts of weapons-grade stupid.

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Response to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Original post)

Thu Dec 6, 2018, 01:17 PM

11. Speaking of the Hulk

(looking at that pic of the Hulk punching Trump).

I want Trump's face spliced into that scene from the Avengers where Hulk smashes Loki into the ground after Loki made the mistake of yelling at him. "Puny Trump".

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