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Mon Nov 12, 2018, 03:35 PM

Trump's Post Election Dip Is No Surprise - By Josh Marshall


By Josh Marshall

November 12, 2018 2:03 pm

Gallup is out with its weekly Trump approval number today and heís down at 38% approval, 56% disapproval. Thatís one of his lowest numbers all year. Polls go up and down of course. But thereís a point I want to make that goes beyond what appears to be Trumpís permanent ping-ponging between 36% and 42% public approval. Put simply, I doubt it will be an accident or momentary that President Trumpís support goes down post-election. Partisanship is a heavy constraining force on public support in this era.

Something comparable actually happened in 2004. In the last months of the 2004 election, President Bush got more popular. Thatís not surprising. Whatís more challenging to explain is that the Iraq War did as well, even though there was really no improvement you could point to on the ground in Iraq to which to attribute it. Indeed, things were by almost every metric or standard getting worse.

The best explanation is that Republican partisans had a difficult time reconciling their desire to vote for President Bushís reelection with the reality of what had happened with the signature policy decision of his presidency: the Iraq War. If Bushís big call was the Iraq War. And it was a disaster, is it really a good idea to vote for him again? Itís a challenging question. One answer is to think John Kerry would be worse. But a key part of the equation was that they reconciled their cognitive dissonance by improving their opinion about how things were going in Iraq. After Bushís reelection, his numbers and support for the Iraq War continued their downward slide.

It seems quite likely that something similar is happening today with President Trump. Candid appraisals of the President are back to having relatively little cost to Republican partisans.

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https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/trumps-post-election-dip-is-no-surprise

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Reply Trump's Post Election Dip Is No Surprise - By Josh Marshall (Original post)
DonViejo Nov 2018 OP
Kahuna7 Nov 2018 #1
bearsfootball516 Nov 2018 #2
Power 2 the People Nov 2018 #3
Wellstone ruled Nov 2018 #4
regnaD kciN Nov 2018 #5

Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Mon Nov 12, 2018, 03:41 PM

1. tsk tsk tsk.

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Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Mon Nov 12, 2018, 03:43 PM

2. I won't be surprised if it keeps dipping for the next week or so.

His attitude toward veterans over the weekend and today has been noticed nationwide. His approval always seems to bounce back in the long run, but in the short run, he'll probably drop a couple points.

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Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Mon Nov 12, 2018, 03:53 PM

3. We need to pound his disrespect for veterans.

Expose his phony patriotism with the facts of his draft dodging,rain dodging antics.

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Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Mon Nov 12, 2018, 03:59 PM

4. Hmmmm!

 

Folks,take out Rasmussen and Sunderson Polls,Donnie of Dumbski would be in the middle twenties.

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Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Mon Nov 12, 2018, 05:55 PM

5. Which means, of course...

...that it'll start climbing again mid-2020. And, since elections are the only "poll" that matters, itís best to assume those higher ratings are the reality.

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