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Thu Nov 8, 2018, 08:18 PM

Why does Predictit only have Nelson at 19%?

edit: the exact percentage changes FAST.

It sounded pretty promising to me with all the Broward votes yet to be counted.

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/2999/Will-Bill-Nelson-be-re-elected-to-the-US-Senate-in-Florida-in-2018

4 replies, 536 views

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Reply Why does Predictit only have Nelson at 19%? (Original post)
Alhena Thursday OP
Beakybird Thursday #1
elleng Thursday #2
marylandblue Thursday #3
Awsi Dooger Thursday #4

Response to Alhena (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 08:24 PM

1. It's at 20% now!

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Response to Alhena (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 08:28 PM

2. They don't predict so good.

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Response to Alhena (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 08:33 PM

3. It went up 14 cents today, but there is still a lot of uncertainty

There is conflicting information on how many uncounted votes Broward actually has.

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Response to Alhena (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 09:09 PM

4. You have to get involved to find out

That's not a great answer but the best I have. I wager there all the time but am not involved in this market. I would favor Nelson at 4/1 return as opposed to Scott giving 1/4 but not enough to be risking some of my winnings from Tuesday.

Similar to sports I like foundational variables and systems. They allow me to play early without second guessing and wait for the result. This is more like a halftime wager in football, after you've already been able to view some of the action and then make a judgment in progress. That's never my style because now too many variables and subjectivity are required.

During the Gregoire/Rossi recount I found a Washington state site that was unbelievably precise, forecasting smack to the number in each county because they knew exactly how many votes were at issue in each one. That was the only time I have wagered on a recount. And I have never seen anything close to that sophistication subsequently.

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