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Thu Nov 8, 2018, 07:56 PM

Sinema remains in the lead.





https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0

79 replies, 5177 views

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Arrow 79 replies Author Time Post
Reply Sinema remains in the lead. (Original post)
lapucelle Nov 8 OP
MaryMagdaline Nov 8 #1
SCantiGOP Nov 8 #28
True_Blue Nov 8 #43
SCantiGOP Nov 8 #51
Honeycombe8 Nov 8 #54
Blue_true Nov 8 #52
UncleTomsEvilBrother Nov 8 #2
brettdale Nov 8 #3
Leghorn21 Nov 8 #4
honest.abe Nov 8 #5
Roland99 Nov 8 #6
Blue_true Nov 8 #53
sheshe2 Nov 8 #7
SaschaHM Nov 8 #8
Leghorn21 Nov 8 #31
Demsrule86 Nov 8 #41
SaschaHM Nov 8 #47
Blue_true Nov 8 #57
SaschaHM Nov 8 #61
spooky3 Nov 8 #71
SaschaHM Nov 8 #72
spooky3 Nov 8 #77
Blue_true Nov 8 #74
Demsrule86 Nov 8 #76
Blue_true Nov 8 #56
LincolnRossiter Nov 8 #65
SaschaHM Nov 8 #66
LincolnRossiter Nov 8 #70
marble falls Nov 9 #79
Bfd Nov 8 #9
enid602 Nov 8 #46
Bfd Nov 8 #49
lark Nov 8 #69
Hassin Bin Sober Nov 8 #10
Blue_true Nov 8 #59
Quixote1818 Nov 8 #11
MoonRiver Nov 8 #12
spanone Nov 8 #13
Downtown Hound Nov 8 #14
shenmue Nov 8 #15
Cha Nov 8 #18
Cha Nov 8 #16
rurallib Nov 8 #17
demtenjeep Nov 8 #19
GoCubsGo Nov 8 #21
Guy Whitey Corngood Nov 8 #22
asiliveandbreathe Nov 8 #25
asiliveandbreathe Nov 8 #20
Mr.Bill Nov 8 #26
asiliveandbreathe Nov 8 #34
Amishman Nov 8 #42
asiliveandbreathe Nov 8 #50
Blue_true Nov 8 #58
John Fante Nov 8 #38
roamer65 Nov 8 #23
BlueintheSTL Nov 8 #24
lapucelle Nov 8 #32
BlueintheSTL Nov 8 #48
GWC58 Nov 8 #33
INdemo Nov 8 #27
samnsara Nov 8 #29
spooky3 Nov 8 #30
lapucelle Nov 8 #36
spooky3 Nov 8 #44
elleng Nov 8 #37
George II Nov 8 #35
John Fante Nov 8 #39
Wintryjade Nov 8 #40
kairos12 Nov 8 #45
sweetloukillbot Nov 8 #55
LovingA2andMI Nov 8 #60
George II Nov 8 #62
LincolnRossiter Nov 8 #63
George II Nov 8 #64
lark Nov 8 #67
Roland99 Nov 8 #68
spooky3 Nov 8 #78
suegeo Nov 8 #73
Az_lefty Nov 8 #75

Response to lapucelle (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 07:58 PM

1. Awesome!

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Response to MaryMagdaline (Reply #1)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 08:19 PM

28. Hold on- this is NOT 100%

There are still votes to count

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Response to SCantiGOP (Reply #28)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 08:41 PM

43. But the votes left are in Maricopa County

Which favors Sinema, so her lead should only increase from here on, which is why the Republicans were trying to stop the election.

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Response to True_Blue (Reply #43)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 09:10 PM

51. Right

Original OP said 100% of the vote was in. It does look very likely that we will win this one.

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Response to True_Blue (Reply #43)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 09:18 PM

54. Yes! I heard that on tv! Things are looking good...but if it's too close, you're talking recount.nt

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Response to SCantiGOP (Reply #28)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 09:11 PM

52. Uncounted votes left in Maricopa, Pima and a red county.

Sinema was Maricopa by almost 1% and Pima by something like 4-6%. She lost the red county, I think Pina, but it has far fewer votes that the other two, even fewer uncounted than Pima alone.

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Response to lapucelle (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 07:59 PM

2. Wait! Wait!

...what?!?!?

I'd counted her ALL the way out!


NICE!!!!!

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Response to lapucelle (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 07:59 PM

3. Well Done

Sinema 931583
McSally 922724

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Response to lapucelle (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 08:00 PM

4. Omg OMG!!!!!!!

HOLY HELL

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Response to lapucelle (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 08:01 PM

5. Wow.. late inning rally!!

A huge win for our side!!

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Response to lapucelle (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 08:01 PM

6. Is it official now? And chance of recount?

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Response to Roland99 (Reply #6)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 09:15 PM

53. Vote counting isn't over.

My guess is when it is, Sinema will be ahead beyond the recount limit. She has votes in two of Arizona's largest counties yet to be counted, one favored her by 1%, the other by around 5%.

Plus, all year, late mailins have heavily favored the democrat, regardless of the county.

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Response to lapucelle (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 08:01 PM

7. Thank you Arizona.

Sinema!

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Response to lapucelle (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 08:01 PM

8. This is erroneous.

I want her to win, but there are still 350k votes that need to counted in Maricopa. What we have today is the first batch of those Eday deliverys/hand-ins. Please update your post so folks won't get the wrong message. This will be going on until next week.

Maricopa's next release will be tomorrow at 8pm est.

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Response to SaschaHM (Reply #8)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 08:23 PM

31. Thank you, HM - the dadgum link says "100%", so - ?!? BUT, things are lookin good/better,

at any rate!!!

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Response to SaschaHM (Reply #8)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 08:37 PM

41. Maricopa is a Dem stronghold. If she is ahead now, she wins.

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Response to Demsrule86 (Reply #41)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 08:47 PM

47. Maricopa went for Flake & McCain for Senate and McCain, Romney, and Trump.

It may be changing demographically, but this is the first election in 10 years that a Democrat is leading in the county. Calling it a Dem stronghold is a bit premature and a stretch. Sinema's ahead now, which portends well for her since Dems haven't won this county in 10 years, but there is still a Republican registration advantage and they were also ahead a bit on EVs. Right now we need to have our fingers crossed that the remaining EVs have the same margin, which would mean that Sinema is winning crossovers and indies, and not that there is some sort of last minute McSally surge.

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Response to SaschaHM (Reply #47)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 09:25 PM

57. Sinema won the county by 1% on Election Day.

All year, late mailins have favored the democrat. Look like the late votes have broken massively for Sinema all day, my guess is that does not change the rest of the way.

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Response to Blue_true (Reply #57)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 09:32 PM

61. I think things look good for Sinema, but Dems have a reason to be bullish.

She won Eday by 1%, that's a combination of Election day votes and mail in ballots. We don't have a breakdown showing who won w/ early votes and who won with just election day votes.

The 350k ballots being counted now are not only late mail-ins (150k), but also election day hand-ins. For Team Sinema and everyone watching this race, the worry comes with the 200k or so that were handed in on Election day. The worry is that these may be slightly more republican since they are essentially election day votes being mail votes handed in at polling places.

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Response to SaschaHM (Reply #61)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 10:31 PM

71. thanks for the on-the-ground info! nt

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Response to spooky3 (Reply #71)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 10:32 PM

72. Np, I'm not on-the-ground, but I've been following on-the-ground sources on twitter since early

voting started.

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Response to SaschaHM (Reply #72)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 11:13 PM

77. thanks! nt

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Response to SaschaHM (Reply #61)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 10:46 PM

74. Investigations have shown that late votes, mailins or handins.

Are more likely to favor the democratic candidate.

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Response to SaschaHM (Reply #47)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 10:56 PM

76. It is a different time...heard there are lots of votes for her there.

Given that she has moved ahead that may be true...hope so.

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Response to SaschaHM (Reply #8)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 09:21 PM

56. She made up 16,000 votes in one day, then added like 18,000 advantage.

Looks like the late votes are breaking heavily for Sinema, as I have been saying they would for the last day.

Even with 300,000 in Maricopa county, I doubt McSally catches her. BTW, on E-Day, Sinema won Maricopa County by around 1%. Even if late votes broke like Election Day, Sinema wins. My guess, the remaining late votes break even more heavily for Sinema, because democrats are notorious for waiting until the last minute to mailin their completed ballots.

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Response to SaschaHM (Reply #8)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 09:47 PM

65. She's leading in Maricopa, has been leading in Maricopa, and there's no reason to believe she'll

necessarily lose that lead. Trump only won the county by 3.5%. Have you seen some of the trends of districts, counties, and states throughout the special elections and midterms? Jurisdictions that were Republican +22 have gone Dem. This one was R +3. NYT actually had a graphic showing the shift left across the country--not just in seats Dems picked up, but even in those that we lost close (again, tons of R +10, 15, 20, 25 that end up going just R +1, 2, and 3).

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Response to LincolnRossiter (Reply #65)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 10:00 PM

66. There are 350k votes left in Maricopa.

150k are late mail-ins. Good for Sinema.
200k are election day hand-ins. Could be good for McSally or Sinema. We really don't know. A 1% Eday+Mail in lead does not tell us who was winning in the EV (typically Dems) or who was winning on the Eday(typically Reps) nor the margins. That's the issue. Things feel good for Sinema, but AZDems have a reason to be bullish. No one is calling this race, outside of DU, because it really depends on the margins in a county with a Republican registration advantage. Sinema is doing phenomenal and having one of the best Dem showings in years. This question is going to be whether it is enough to counter the structural disadvantages. I think it will be, but I still think the race might be close when all the ballots are counted.

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Response to SaschaHM (Reply #66)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 10:26 PM

70. I'm sure it'll be close, too, Sascha. I just wanted to point out that GOP party ID advantage...

and a history of winning elections in affluent white municipalities and suburbs (like those surrounding Phoenix) hasn't been of much use to the GOP this cycle or the last. Trump only won Maricopa by 3.5%. With what we've seen in the special elections and the midterms, that should be of little comfort to the GOP. The shift leftward has be massive. We're talking swings of 10, 15, and 20+%. Here lead is only growing as more votes from MC come in.

I'm not an expert on Arizona politics, so forgive me if I seem strident. But I think we have cause for optimism. I felt that way the moment I heard the GOP was planning lawsuits to block or impede vote counts. They know this isn't stacking up well for them.

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Response to LincolnRossiter (Reply #70)

Fri Nov 9, 2018, 07:55 AM

79. Hows District 10 politics going?

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Response to lapucelle (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 08:01 PM

9. Thanks lapucelle! This is like Christmas! She DID IT!

She has got to be ecstatic!!


Now On to Florida!

C'mon Florida

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Response to Bfd (Reply #9)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 08:45 PM

46. GA

And GA too.

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Response to enid602 (Reply #46)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 08:57 PM

49. Yes & Kemp resigned thinking he had it won. BUT more ballots are still being counted..

Abrams could pull this off yet!
I say Recount Tx too for BETO!! Why not.

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Response to Bfd (Reply #9)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 10:25 PM

69. FL is giving a huge effort to this, amazingly.

For once we are fighting back and I for one couldn't be more proud of all the hard work being done. My back hurts from sitting & standing on concrete so much today while we were learning complicated scripts to cure provisional issues, training other volunteers, then making calls. I'm tired but content. I have done everything I could. WE will know the final results soon I hope.

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Response to lapucelle (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 08:02 PM

10. Wow.

Tuesday gets better by the hour. Lol

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Response to Hassin Bin Sober (Reply #10)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 09:30 PM

59. Aren't you glad you stayed up? nt

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Response to lapucelle (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 08:03 PM

11. Fuck yes!

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Response to lapucelle (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 08:04 PM

12. WOWZER!!!

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Response to lapucelle (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 08:04 PM

13. K&R...

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Response to lapucelle (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 08:05 PM

14. Whoo Hoo!

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Response to lapucelle (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 08:05 PM

15. Praise to Ceiling Cat

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Response to shenmue (Reply #15)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 08:10 PM

18. lol

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Response to lapucelle (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 08:05 PM

16. OMG, lapucelle!!!!!!!

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Response to lapucelle (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 08:06 PM

17. Wow - talk about an unexpected surprise - a very pleasant surprise

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Response to lapucelle (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 08:12 PM

19. is this McCain's seat?

He would smile at this I believe

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Response to demtenjeep (Reply #19)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 08:14 PM

21. Flake's

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Response to demtenjeep (Reply #19)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 08:14 PM

22. Flake. nt

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Response to demtenjeep (Reply #19)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 08:17 PM

25. No - Mccains seat was handed over to KYL by Ducey shitbag....

This is the seat Flacko is giving up....because he thinks he has a chance at the prez...which, he can run for - but he has as much chance at that as arpaio -

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Response to lapucelle (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 08:13 PM

20. Hold it...I am in Maricopa County AZ...the vote count has NOT been completed....

Yes, I voted for Sinema..and want nothing more than for her to win..so, hold on!!!!!

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Response to asiliveandbreathe (Reply #20)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 08:17 PM

26. Isn't Sinema leading in Maricopa County?

I mean can we reasonably expect her to hold the lead if that's the only county where votes are yet to be counted?

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Response to Mr.Bill (Reply #26)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 08:25 PM

34. Mr. Bill...340,000 votes still to be counted....Maricopa..and that doesn't include Pima..

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/11/07/did-martha-mcsally-kyrsten-sinema-win-senate-arizona-ballots-still-count/1923935002/

I am one of those mail in ballot voters and they sure as hell better count it....

Every day will be an update..I love the fact that she has built up a significant lead...

Be well Mr Bill -

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Response to asiliveandbreathe (Reply #34)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 08:38 PM

42. So tonight's update does not include the 80k from Pima?

If so, any idea when the Pima numbers will come out?

Pima should push this beyond any recount or doubt if they are not already in

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Response to Amishman (Reply #42)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 09:02 PM

50. I'll tell ya, hard to find anything on Pima county at this time..this from 2hrs ago -

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Response to asiliveandbreathe (Reply #34)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 09:29 PM

58. Pima went massively for Sinema on Election Day.

She won Maricopa County by 1% on Election Day. My guess? Sinema increases her advantage as more votes are counted.

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Response to Mr.Bill (Reply #26)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 08:26 PM

38. Sinema is leading in Maricopa.

SINEMA 551,581
MCSALLY 523,881

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Response to lapucelle (Original post)


Response to lapucelle (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 08:15 PM

24. Please change your thread title. It is not accurate.

There are still ~500,000 votes to be counted. CNN has it at 81%, 100% is NOT CORRECT. I think Sinema will win but this is far from over.

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Response to BlueintheSTL (Reply #24)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 08:23 PM

32. I changed it.

Thank you for clearing up my error. Did they stop counting for the day?

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Response to lapucelle (Reply #32)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 08:50 PM

48. Thanks.

I think so.

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Response to BlueintheSTL (Reply #24)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 08:24 PM

33. MSNBC said Sinema is now in the lead with

81% of the vote in. Watch out for GOP dirty tricks! 👺

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Response to lapucelle (Original post)


Response to lapucelle (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 08:21 PM

29. yessssssssssssssss!

.but why does Steve say theres 100,000s yet to count?

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Response to lapucelle (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 08:22 PM

30. Kornacki is reporting many votes are yet to be counted

340000 in one county alone.

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Response to spooky3 (Reply #30)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 08:26 PM

36. There are...I changed my headline.

I based it on the information on the website of the SOS of Arizona which I clearly misunderstood.

https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0

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Response to lapucelle (Reply #36)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 08:41 PM

44. Thanks. We're all hoping that Sinema will

Get most of those remaining votes. ++++++++

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Response to spooky3 (Reply #30)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 08:26 PM

37. Yes, thanks for noting this.

If I recall properly, it's the 'late' votes, that is, live/voting day votes not yet reflected, and will take a while longer.

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Response to lapucelle (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 08:25 PM

35. Great news! If it holds that will make up for one of the seats we lost. Nelson is a possibility, too

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Response to George II (Reply #35)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 08:27 PM

39. Winning two seats in states Gump carried would be sweeeeet.

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Response to lapucelle (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 08:34 PM

40. Az Senator, yea. Way to go. In red Az. The best.

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Response to lapucelle (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 08:41 PM

45. Living in Phoenix I can say this will be a great victory.

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Response to lapucelle (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 09:19 PM

55. I think she has it, but I wouldn't start celebrating unless tomorrow's numbers improve further

But the Republicans are suing to disqualify votes, and McSally noticeably didn't declare victory on Tuesday. I think they know how this is going to end up.

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Response to lapucelle (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 09:32 PM

60. Yes, but folks MUST GET...

If Kyrsten pulls out her race, she is a Centrist Democrat in a 50/50 State called Arizona. Remember this when at times she has to vote against the norm on certain issues to ensure her RE-ELECTION.

Thanks, in advance.

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Response to lapucelle (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 09:39 PM

62. Her lead is now 9,200!

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Response to lapucelle (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 09:41 PM

63. I saw this coming!! Hopefully we have similar success in Florida!

Sinema is going to pull this out in the end. Maybe Scott and Gillum can, too.

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Response to lapucelle (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 09:44 PM

64. Hope you don't mind me chiming in repeatedly, but in the last few minutes....

....the lead has gone UP again:

A little earlier:

931,583
922,724

+8,859

Now (9:45 Eastern):

932,870
923,260

+9,610

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Response to lapucelle (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 10:17 PM

67. OMG, if we could pick up Sinema, Nelson & Abrams, how sweet that will be!

of course, this is wishful thinking, but it is possible. Sinema is looking really good and the most solid bet for great blue news, but Nelson has cut the lead in half. Brian Kemp is no longer Sec of State and there's lots of work remaining still due to the courts orders about notifying and giving folks x # of days to verify their signatures. That one looks to be tied up for awhile.

I was happy picking up 31 seats (so far) in the House, but to add these 3 important wins would be such a delectable icing for that cake. It would put Dems in such a better position for the census, reapportionment, and 2020.

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Response to lark (Reply #67)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 10:19 PM

68. Sinema up 10,000!!

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Response to lark (Reply #67)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 11:14 PM

78. and go a long way to providing the checks-and-balances that Trump STILL doesn't understand

are going to be applied.

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Response to lapucelle (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 10:35 PM

73. Wait wait, why can't we talk about the caravan

Kirstjen Michele Nielsen, where you at?

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Response to lapucelle (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 10:50 PM

75. Can't wait for her to be my Senator

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