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Thu Nov 8, 2018, 03:40 PM

Can Nelson actually pull this out?

He is currently down just 17,344. Are there enough votes still out there for him to pull ahead? Is there anyone on twitter besides Steve Schale that is giving the latest updates and what votes and how many are still out there?

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Reply Can Nelson actually pull this out? (Original post)
BlueintheSTL Nov 8 OP
janterry Nov 8 #1
The Blue Flower Nov 8 #2
BlueintheSTL Nov 8 #11
qazplm135 Nov 8 #3
BlueintheSTL Nov 8 #4
LonePirate Nov 8 #5
book_worm Nov 8 #6
malaise Nov 8 #7
Alhena Nov 8 #8
Awsi Dooger Nov 8 #12
Alhena Nov 8 #15
Awsi Dooger Nov 8 #17
Jersey Devil Nov 8 #9
BannonsLiver Nov 8 #13
juxtaposed Nov 8 #16
BannonsLiver Nov 8 #18
Awsi Dooger Nov 8 #14
grantcart Nov 8 #10

Response to BlueintheSTL (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 03:40 PM

1. I think there are

n/t

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Response to BlueintheSTL (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 03:42 PM

2. Leon County (Tallahassee) Dems said tens of thousands of ballots not counted

Mail-ins, absentees, provisional. This is Florida, Jake.

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Response to The Blue Flower (Reply #2)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 04:11 PM

11. Do you have a link regarding that?

I have heard there are votes left in Broward and Palm Beach but nothing regarding Leon County.

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Response to BlueintheSTL (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 03:43 PM

3. Drawing to an inside straight

is probably what I'd compare it to.

Not impossible. Not lottery odds. But pretty tough.

The "Duh" response is the more remaining votes there are, the better his chances.

The good news is if he gets it down to say the single thousands, then a hand recount could easily come across that many via machine error or whatnot.

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Response to BlueintheSTL (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 03:43 PM

4. I am also hearing there are a lot of votes in Palm Beach County as well

Has anyone else heard this?

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Response to BlueintheSTL (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 03:50 PM

5. Broward County went 2:1 Dem so there would need be at least 26K uncounted ballots there.

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Response to BlueintheSTL (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 03:51 PM

6. He was down 60,000 on election night--still ballots to be counted

I don't know if he can make it or not, but I want every ballot to be counted as they should be.

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Response to BlueintheSTL (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 03:52 PM

7. Yes

Hand counting time

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Response to BlueintheSTL (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 03:54 PM

8. He just surged to 23% on Predictit

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Response to Alhena (Reply #8)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 04:14 PM

12. Also the PredictIt commenters are often a good source

When money is on the line these guys pay attention. Here's a recent comment under that market:

"According to data Broward Error is almost entirely in FL 24th district(Hillary - 83% Trump - 15%). Nelson will win by 70% these votes."

***

Of course, you also have to wade through all the absolute right wing nutcases who comment on Predict It and other sites featuring political math.

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Response to Awsi Dooger (Reply #12)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 04:39 PM

15. Unfortunately, I've read the undervote in the 24th district can be explained by the fact ...

that there was an unopposed House rate in that district which led to a blank spot on the ballot, with the Senate race at the bottom, below the blank space.

So it seems Nelson DID get robbed of votes there, but not in a way that a recount will help. Some of the Broward County voters in the 24th district apparently just didn't look down below the blank space to see the Senate race.

Here's betting that the confusing ballot in the 24th wasn't an accident, but a design to suppress black votes by the Republican Secretary of State. But a recount won't remedy that outrage.

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Response to Alhena (Reply #15)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 04:55 PM

17. How can a senate race be below anything else?

I thought there were requirements? I voted weeks ago but just checked my sample ballot and the senate race here was the absolute top of the ballot.

You would think our voters would realize they never actually filled out a vote for senate.

Whatever. Now I'm on tilt again.

We lose these secretary of state races at every level all around the country. Then we wonder what went wrong.

Actually, I just checked local sources and found a picture of the ballot in question. It looks like senate was indeed first on the ballot, but it was low on the first column, below a long batch of ballot instructions.


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Response to BlueintheSTL (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 03:56 PM

9. High number of undervotes for Senate point to a scanner problem in Broward per Elias

Elias pointed to several areas where the campaign can pick up votes. Some 10,000 votes are left to be counted in Palm Beach County, and Broward County is still tallying up votes as well.

Broward also experienced an “unusual undervote pattern,” Elias said.

Data on the county board of elections site shows that more votes were cast for down-ballot offices like governor, attorney general and even chief financial officer than the top-of-the-ticket Senate race.

Elias said that he was “pretty confident” this resulted from a calibration or scanning issue that didn’t read markings on this particular part of the ballot.

Reports that the ballot design, which had the Senate race buried on the lower left corner, threw off some voters would not “cause an undervote of the magnitude we’re seeing,” Elias said.
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/nelson-campaign-confident-it-has-the-votes-to-win-florida-senate-recount

If Elias is right, a hand count would reveal more votes for Senate.

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Response to Jersey Devil (Reply #9)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 04:25 PM

13. It would be great if Florida could get their shit together with regard to elections

Yes the KGOP has been up to a lot of shenanigans but some of this is just old fashioned buffoonery. I mean they’ve only had 18 years to fix it after the 2000 debacle FFS.

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Response to BannonsLiver (Reply #13)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 04:46 PM

16. But they still have Pam Bondi as the AG who licks Scott's feet for flying her and her new

husband to the Cayman Islands on his private jet on her wedding day to open a new account.

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Response to juxtaposed (Reply #16)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 05:14 PM

18. True but I'm talking about local level problems

Poorly designed ballots etc. it’s always something with Florida elections.

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Response to Jersey Devil (Reply #9)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 04:34 PM

14. That is the most promising development of all

If those missing votes from scanner error are in a 4/1 district, as others have reported (FL-24), then Nelson can gobble up a big percentage of his current deficit right there.

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Response to BlueintheSTL (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 04:00 PM

10. Doesn't look great. we still don't know how many uncounted ballots there are



This is the latest I could find



http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/politics/fl-ne-election-broward-turnout-thursday-20181108-story.html

“#Florida law requires counties report early voting & vote-by-mail within 30 minutes after polls close. 43 hours after polls closed 2 Democrat strongholds #BrowardCounty & #PalmBeachCounty are still counting & refusing to disclose how many ballots they have left to count,” Rubio wrote on Twitter



Of course they could have disclosed this to SOS and not informed Rubio personally.

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