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Thu Nov 8, 2018, 03:35 PM

Racism among certain Cubans may have cost Gillum, and impacting Nelson

Under the category of still-trying-to-rationalize Florida, while hoping the recounts succeed:

Marc Caputo had an extremely revealing segment in his column today, regarding the changing preference from 2016 to 2018 among certain heavily Cuban areas of Miami-Dade County. In statewide exit polling the most devastating and inexplicable shift was Hispanic percentage dropping from 62-35 Hillary to 55-44 this time.

I live in Miami. The Cuban vote is always fluid. I can never fully understand it, let alone predict it. I know there is tension and animosity among blacks and Hispanics regarding job opportunity. A commenter on Predict It was insisting for a month that the Florida polling meant nothing, because South Florida Hispanics would not vote for a black man for governor, especially one who came across as very black, constantly using phrases like "y'all," unlike Obama.

I wanted to dismiss it. But it likely holds some validity. I live in southwest Miami but once I drive north across Flagler Street it can feel like a different world, much more conservative. And those are the areas spotlighted in the Marc Caputo column today:

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/florida-playbook/2018/11/08/recount-mania-gillums-002-percent-away-from-recount-how-florida-leans-trump-for-2020-did-cubans-keep-florida-red-bondi-for-ag-or-acosta-343049

DID CUBANS KEEP FLORIDA RED? This was such a fascinating nugget from Giancarlo Sopo, communications consultant and friend of Florida Playbook, so we asked him to type it up for your reading pleasure: “An analysis of voting results in Miami-Dade County’s 35 most Cuban precincts shows that Cuban Americans were critical to keeping Florida red this year. As recent polling showed, Republican gubernatorial nominee Ron DeSantis and his running mate, Jeannette Nuñez, won 66% of the vote in the predominantly Cuban precincts located in the suburbs of western Miami-Dade and Hialeah. DeSantis’ 33-percentage point advantage among Cubans over Democrat Andrew Gillum was a 16-point improvement for Republicans from Donald Trump’s 57 to 40 percent lead over Hillary Clinton and a key to his success. Had DeSantis merely mirrored Trump’s 2016 Cuban performance, the Democrats’ lead in Miami-Dade County would have widened by approximately 78,000 votes and left DeSantis with a 0.4% statewide deficit.”

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Reply Racism among certain Cubans may have cost Gillum, and impacting Nelson (Original post)
Awsi Dooger Thursday OP
LBM20 Thursday #1
brush Thursday #3
Awsi Dooger Thursday #4
Xipe Totec Thursday #2

Response to Awsi Dooger (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 03:37 PM

1. How many Gillum voters didn't vote at all? Young people etc.? Let's clean up OUR OWN house too.

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Response to LBM20 (Reply #1)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 03:49 PM

3. Why post such negativity? If they didn't vote they're not voters.

And without any facts on the obvious and blatant voter suppression to back up what you're accusing young AA of.

And all young millennials no matter what race, as most of us know, vote percentage-wise less than older generations.

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Response to LBM20 (Reply #1)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 03:59 PM

4. No doubt

The Florida electorate was always older and more white than we needed. Marc Caputo was detailing that every day, based on early voting specifics.

Meanwhile, favorable Florida polls continued to be released in the final week that made zero sense, based on the electorate who were actually voting. Election day always favors Republicans in Florida. This time by 5%.

We won independents by 10% but that is offset by a Florida electorate that jumped from 62% white in 2016 to 66% white this time.

However, I should emphasize the amazing turnout from women. That is astonishing and I have noted it in other states. Women normally participate in lower numbers in midterms but this time it often reached presidential relationship to men, if not higher.

Women were 53% of the Florida vote in 2016. That is normal. It would be expected to drop to 51% in a midterm. Instead, it jumped to an incredible 55%, at least according to this still-early Florida exit poll.

Of course, it can be looked at in ominous fashion also. If Democrats are losing Florida despite winning Duval County (Jacksonville), and females at 55% of the vote, that demonstrates the commanding impact that the white rural vote has attained.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/florida

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Response to Awsi Dooger (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2018, 03:38 PM

2. Yes, racism is not a WASP thing. There are racists among Hispanics, not just Cubans.

It's unfortunate but true.

There's an expression in Mexico: "Sacar el penacho" meaning to show your (feathered) headdress.

It means to expose your Native American roots.

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