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Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:36 AM

*Holy Moly*Gallup returns to tradition and posts a generic ballot. The GOOD GUYS AND GALS are + 11


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Reply *Holy Moly*Gallup returns to tradition and posts a generic ballot. The GOOD GUYS AND GALS are + 11 (Original post)
DemocratSinceBirth Nov 6 OP
YessirAtsaFact Nov 6 #1
hvn_nbr_2 Nov 6 #2
DemocratSinceBirth Nov 6 #4
Ilsa Nov 6 #3
Awsi Dooger Nov 6 #5

Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:41 AM

1. One more data point in the Blue direction

This may be a very good evening for Democrats

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 01:38 PM

2. I'm missing something here

Why is it "whoa worthy" that a polling firm posts a generic ballot poll? Generic ballot polls are everywhere in election season. Has Gallup traditionally avoided that particular polling question? Or what?

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Response to hvn_nbr_2 (Reply #2)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 02:22 PM

4. They stopped doing horse race polls after picking the wrong popular vote winner in 012.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 01:41 PM

3. Ahead by 11 in this age of gerrymandering

Could mean a big shot at picking up the house. Let's hope it holds.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 02:27 PM

5. Gallup used to poll generic ballot when nobody else did

It was heavily cited. I remember in 1994, the first midterm I wagered on politics, both Gallup and Pew had Republicans ahead on the generic ballot but other firms disagreed and the average generic was a Democratic edge of about 3 points. Meanwhile the final number was Republicans +7.0.

I didn't know anything about Pew at the time but the midterm result immediately pointed me toward Pew as a sharp outfit. I have followed their surveys ever since. It is my favorite firm for overall knowledge of voting trends, including by generation.

Gallup is much more narrow focused and increasingly lazy. Now they still poll generic, but not nearly the frequency of other firms. Gallup has never polled individual races as often as other firms. They have settled into presidential approval ratings once a week as their stable. Obviously a lazy model that they feel comfortable trotting out time and again.

Gallup did have a generic ballot poll in mid September. That one showed a 9 point Democratic edge at 51-42

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