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Mon Nov 5, 2018, 05:27 PM

A very real path to taking the Senate has opened up with recent polls

First the bump

A large number of polls have a significant numbers of polls showing a 3-4% bump. Four polls have just come in showing Nelson with a 4-7% advantage over Scott.

Also showing

McCaskill + 3
Menendez +15
Klobuchar +23

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/


If we lose ND (and Jon Ralston thinks that Heidkamp is still in contention due to the very problematic nature of polling in ND and her past record) and defend all of our other Senate seats then all we need is TN or TX to take the Senate.

It appears that the shootings/bombings and the renouncement of birth right citizenship was the straw that broke the back of a lot GOP/Undecideds.

This kind of bump at the end of the campaign is really unheard of and reflects a total 4-5 million voters. Also because polls are a snapshot of a move it means that the momentum of the actual move is likely to be higher.

As Sunonmars thread shows 538 notes a consistent and widespread move

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100211367533




That push will move seats like Tester/McCaskill/Nelson/Donelly to safety

If they all hold and we take NV/AZ then all we need for 51 in the Senate is either TN or TX.

If we take ND then we only need one of them.

66 replies, 7528 views

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Reply A very real path to taking the Senate has opened up with recent polls (Original post)
grantcart Nov 2018 OP
Wintryjade Nov 2018 #1
Jersey Devil Nov 2018 #3
Wintryjade Nov 2018 #8
a kennedy Nov 2018 #11
Jersey Devil Nov 2018 #12
0rganism Nov 2018 #47
onetexan Nov 2018 #13
Bradshaw3 Nov 2018 #16
Basement Beat Nov 2018 #29
Volaris Nov 2018 #62
onetexan Nov 2018 #63
Volaris Nov 2018 #64
Kurt V. Nov 2018 #43
beachbum bob Nov 2018 #2
Poiuyt Nov 2018 #4
BlueInRedHell Nov 2018 #24
Poiuyt Nov 2018 #55
BlueInRedHell Nov 2018 #57
dalton99a Nov 2018 #5
malaise Nov 2018 #6
spanone Nov 2018 #7
YessirAtsaFact Nov 2018 #9
grantcart Nov 2018 #10
MissB Nov 2018 #25
Basement Beat Nov 2018 #32
honest.abe Nov 2018 #14
TeamPooka Nov 2018 #15
MissB Nov 2018 #27
AlexSFCA Nov 2018 #17
StevieM Nov 2018 #18
Jersey Devil Nov 2018 #19
StevieM Nov 2018 #20
Jersey Devil Nov 2018 #21
StevieM Nov 2018 #22
Salviati Nov 2018 #23
BumRushDaShow Nov 2018 #37
Salviati Nov 2018 #49
BumRushDaShow Nov 2018 #51
KentuckyWoman Nov 2018 #26
Onward AND Upward Nov 2018 #36
KentuckyWoman Nov 2018 #53
SunSeeker Nov 2018 #28
yardwork Nov 2018 #30
MaryMagdaline Nov 2018 #52
yardwork Nov 2018 #54
grantcart Nov 2018 #66
dameatball Nov 2018 #31
Onward AND Upward Nov 2018 #33
mwooldri Nov 2018 #34
dawg day Nov 2018 #35
moose65 Nov 2018 #45
INdemo Nov 2018 #38
Name removed Nov 2018 #39
watoos Nov 2018 #40
Honeycombe8 Nov 2018 #42
Honeycombe8 Nov 2018 #41
a kennedy Nov 2018 #44
Onward AND Upward Nov 2018 #61
Roadside Attraction Nov 2018 #46
grantcart Nov 2018 #58
lpbk2713 Nov 2018 #48
Awsi Dooger Nov 2018 #56
kevink077 Nov 2018 #50
xmas74 Nov 2018 #59
Demovictory9 Nov 2018 #60
Hortensis Nov 2018 #65

Response to grantcart (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 05:31 PM

1. Pelosi is out there. She knows. She has already taken leadership role.

 

She is awesome. And wicked smart.

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Response to Wintryjade (Reply #1)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 05:34 PM

3. Hoping to see a pic of her Wednesday (or sooner) with the biggest

grin anyone's ever seen just to piss of the Repukes a bit more.

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Response to Jersey Devil (Reply #3)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 05:46 PM

8. Yes. !

 

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Response to Jersey Devil (Reply #3)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 06:30 PM

11. I want to see her with that huge gavel in her hand come January.......

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Response to a kennedy (Reply #11)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 06:38 PM

12. lol, yes, remember that for sure

Want to see an even bigger one this time.

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Response to Jersey Devil (Reply #12)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 08:31 PM

47. she'll need the Mario hammer

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Response to a kennedy (Reply #11)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 06:43 PM

13. YES!! YES!!

Nancy is the Gal with the Gavel.

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Response to onetexan (Reply #13)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 06:49 PM

16. One of the shortest speakerships but one of the best

When she had the gavel before.

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Response to onetexan (Reply #13)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 07:38 PM

29. I originally...

hoped to see the Dems go another direction besides Pelosi - but that was short lived. An effective fighter that ALSO pisses and scares the republicans off sounds like a great fit.

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Response to Basement Beat (Reply #29)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 03:31 AM

62. I don't care if she runs the day to day, fine by me.

But if the house is blue I want Hillary nominated to the Speakership...because it will scare the everliving fuck out if the GOP if she's in the Line.
It's a pipedream I know, but it would be the first real justice inflicted on this Russian resident and his party of Enablers.

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Response to Volaris (Reply #62)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 06:15 AM

63. Wow, novel idea. I would love that, but doesn't the speakership need to be an elected official whose

already a member of the House?

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Response to onetexan (Reply #63)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:28 AM

64. Nope.

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Response to Jersey Devil (Reply #3)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 08:15 PM

43. me too.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 05:31 PM

2. In a wave election, all things are possible. Each one us can make it happen.

 

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 05:39 PM

4. Not getting my hopes up for the Senate

If we should take both houses of Congress, then I'll do my happy dance.

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Response to Poiuyt (Reply #4)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 07:26 PM

24. I'm not getting my hopes up over any race after '16. I'll save my hopes for after something good r/o

happens. I'll then hope that we can begin to undo the evil Trump and his minions have perpetrated against our country.

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Response to BlueInRedHell (Reply #24)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 11:07 PM

55. Welcome to DU!

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Response to Poiuyt (Reply #55)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 12:51 AM

57. Thank you!

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 05:40 PM

5. Kick

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 05:40 PM

6. Greatness

Vote them out.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 05:41 PM

7. K&R...

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 05:57 PM

9. It's going to take extraordinary turnout

And most of the new voters breaking for Democrats, but it’s certainly possible

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Response to YessirAtsaFact (Reply #9)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 06:19 PM

10. Yes we would have to virtually "run the table " but there is a reason why

The phrase "run the table" exists, because every once in a while somebody does it.

If Be to takes TX then we take the Senate.

Cruz's political career is over and. A wave of optimism will return

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Response to grantcart (Reply #10)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 07:31 PM

25. I really hope to see that tomorrow!

Still won’t make up for 2016.

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Response to grantcart (Reply #10)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 07:41 PM

32. Good point.

Those phases exist for a reason.
I'm ready to break open some whiskey just in case some surprise "upsets" happen in our favor.

Who am I kidding, I'm drinking the whiskey starting at 8pm no matter what.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 06:44 PM

14. Yep... looking more and more promising.

TX or TN and I think we got it.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 06:44 PM

15. Santa, all I want for Christmas is a Blue US Senate. I won't ask for anything else. Keep the pony

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Response to TeamPooka (Reply #15)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 07:33 PM

27. On the eve of the 2016 election, some ass

Drive around our quiet suburban neighborhood and honked their truck horn in celebration. Tomorrow, I’d be thrilled to return the fucking favor.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 06:51 PM

17. I'm hoping for NV, AZ, TX and TN

I aready beleive that FL is ours due to fundamental shift in hispanic population including cuban americans away from gop. I do think we have a decent chance in all of the above states because they are not as prone to extreme voter suppression efforts as some other states. When the entire state votes and we reach out to millions of voters who did not vote before or intermittently, the outcome changes dramatically that no poll can capture. I still beleive that majority of eligible voters in every state are decent people and if 90%+ of eligible voters vote, we can win even in ‘red’ state. House races worry me much more due to expansive gerrymandering.
Always remember if Doug Jones, a strong pro-choice candidate won in AL running against the most trumpian republican, we can win anywhere if wr turn out each and every time.

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Response to AlexSFCA (Reply #17)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 06:54 PM

18. TN and TX are going to be hard. But if we are close in those states then we might wind up

winning AZ, NV, MO, IN and FL. That could lead to a 50-50 Senate and power sharing at the committee level.

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Response to StevieM (Reply #18)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 06:57 PM

19. Would it work that way in a tie under Senate rules?

I know the veep breaks ties on votes on legislation, but not for committee makeup?

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Response to Jersey Devil (Reply #19)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 07:03 PM

20. In 2000 the two sides had power sharing when there was a 50-50 tie coming out of the election.

The GOP held the majority leader post until Sen. James Jeffords of Vermont became an independent who caucused with the Democrats.

The VP doesn't affect committee make up, which I believe will be split evenly if the Senate is split evenly.

Of course, the Trump will probably scream that it is unfair and demand full control.

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Response to StevieM (Reply #20)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 07:06 PM

21. Don't remember that well, but very interesting

Maybe we should start sending flowers to Lisa Murkowski?

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Response to Jersey Devil (Reply #21)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 07:08 PM

22. Nope, she isn't flipping. We are going to have to win this thing on Election Day.

I am very hopeful for the House, the Senate will be much tougher.

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Response to StevieM (Reply #20)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 07:10 PM

23. I mean presumably there was that power sharing agreement because both sides agreed to it.

I wouldn't count on the republicans to agree that the sky is blue these days. I would expect them to use the VP vote to break any ties and to not share any power.

If they aren't constitutionally mandated to share power then they won't.

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Response to Salviati (Reply #23)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 07:54 PM

37. "Power sharing" in a 50-50 tie is an outlier. A VP automatically shifts the majority to their party

for Committee Chair purposes.

Meaning that everyone on this board should realize that this bizarre case after the 2000 election -

By Rebecca Shabad CBS News October 13, 2016, 6:00 AM
What happens if the Senate splits 50-50 next year?

<...>

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Kentucky, about the prospects of a 50-50 split in the Senate next year (ed. in 2016). In his view, Senate leaders would deal with that outcome by using the same kind of power-sharing agreement that was reached the last time this happened.

“We know we had that 16 years ago -- the Senate, after the 2000 election, was 50-50,” he told reporters at a press conference. “I think if we ended up 50-50, that we would simply replicate what we did in 2000.”

After the 2000 election, then-Democratic Leader Tom Daschle acknowledged that incoming Vice President Dick Cheney, with his ability to cast tie-breaking votes, would technically make Republicans the majority. But because of the even split on Capitol Hill, Daschle demanded that all Senate committees be equally divided between each party’s members as well as their staffs and resources. He also considered pushing for Democrats to co-chair committees.

A few weeks before the inauguration, Daschle reached a power-sharing agreement with Republican Leader Trent Lott, R-Mississippi, that required that Senate committees have an equal number of members from each party with staffing and funding levels divided down the middle.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-happens-if-the-senate-splits-50-50-next-year/


will most likely NEVER happen again, not only because of what is highlighted above, but because the GOP threw all the rule books out when they took over in 2014, and the bitterness and rancor is too vast and too deep.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Reply #37)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 08:36 PM

49. Exactly

I know mcconell is quoted as taking that as a guide if the senate were to wind up evenly split this year, but that is so much turtleshit.

If the republicans are not constitutionally bound to give up an inch then they will not, and if they are, they will fight it tooth and nail, and if they are forced to in the end, they'll use a crooked ruler.

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Response to Salviati (Reply #49)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 08:44 PM

51. "they will fight it tooth and nail"

Exactly. And they will be ugly and nasty about it too.

They have internalized that famous quote from Yoda -

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 07:32 PM

26. I'm not buying

Hoping yes. But not buying.

Because not in 1000 million years would I expect we ended up with President Trump. He's exactly the same now as he was running for election. Why would America elect him and reject him now?

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Response to KentuckyWoman (Reply #26)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 07:53 PM

36. Because a LOT of R's, and other's, didnt realize, or were hoping to elect...

something other than this:

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Response to Onward AND Upward (Reply #36)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 09:38 PM

53. Honestly, I wish I were more optimistic but I'm not

Do we have amazing ideas? Yes
Do we have amazing candidates? Yes
Do we have an amazing bunch of volunteers and support staff to GOTV? Hell Yes.

Do I believe for one second the idiots who voted Trump are having any sort of change of heart? NO, HELL NO, and WTF NO.

They knew exactly what they were getting. He's the same asshole he ever was. This is what they voted for. My guess is they'll run out and vote straight Republican because OMG brown people invasions and eeek Nancy Pelosi might force affordable medical care on us.

At any rate, I wish I could be more optimistic, I really do. In my heart I know we all have more in common than we don't. It would be so easy to pull together if we would just stop listening the lies peddled to divide us and have respectful conversations about the future of our country. But I don't see that happening in my lifetime. The pendulum will still swing about some but generally it's been shifting right a long time. And here we are, the worst kind of American is the top dog.

That the younger folks feel more hope than I do is fantastic. It's their time now. And with all my heart, I hope we can figure out a way to neuter the disgusting filth that got Trump elected in the first place

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 07:37 PM

28. K & R

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 07:38 PM

30. I think it was the threat to go after SS and Medicare.

Got the retired folks riled up.

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Response to yardwork (Reply #30)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 09:01 PM

52. I think you are right

We are actually polling higher than repugs in 65 and higher group. Haven’t seen that for a long tine.

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Response to MaryMagdaline (Reply #52)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 10:29 PM

54. They don't call it the third rail for nothing.

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Response to yardwork (Reply #30)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:48 AM

66. I think it was the election violence, especially the Synagogue and

The attack on birth right citizenship.

Alarms about SS and Medicare have been used before and I feel have become immune to it.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 07:40 PM

31. I understand that Beto has an uphill battle, but if Bredesen doesn't win then we know "issues" are

irrelevant to TN voters. Only party. I still think we take at least one of the two.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 07:43 PM

33. To help re-elect Heitkamp in North Dakota *READ THIS*

ND tribes were the votes that elected senator Heitkamp. Similar to Murkowski in Alaska. They are working 24/7 with an Indian non-profit called Fourdirections to GOTV, in ND and AZ, as well as other states.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100211360747

Donate to the link in the above post if you can. They will have the ID's and resources to GOTV for 2020 as well. They'e got some serious momentum, and just need us to fuel the drive!

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 07:45 PM

34. We can hope. Only poll that matters is the actual vote.

I've been burned by too many polls being "wrong" ..Tory government in UK, Brexit, Trump... so I'll hope and pray. MASA - Make America Sane Again.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 07:47 PM

35. Obama came to "the Region" (Gary IN)

If the cities come out in Indiana, Democrats usually win. Donnelly isn't unpopular-- it's all "Trump" on the GOP side, not any enthusiasm for his truly unpleasant opponent (Mike Braun).

Pence (who was an unpopular governor just before he was VP) seems to have utterly no influence here. There are a whole lot of Trumpers, and he's been here three times (Pence usually trailing doglike behind him), but I don't think anyone ELSE would be pulled over to vote because of him (Except in opposition).

Who knows, but there's been a good amount of early voting, and that usually favors Democrats.

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Response to dawg day (Reply #35)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 08:24 PM

45. Pence is so boring, isn't he?

He has the personality of a used paper towel.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 07:55 PM

38. Donnelly is up 3-4 pts.

I believe that Heidi Heitkamp will win as well as Beto..so that's it..

Cruz knows he is going to lose this one. His aides have told him not to renew his lease in D.C

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Response to grantcart (Original post)


Response to grantcart (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 08:00 PM

40. The path was always there,

 

Cable news is all right wing and has been pushing the narrative that the Senate was not in play.
I never believed them.

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Response to watoos (Reply #40)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 08:08 PM

42. That's not what I heard repeatedly.

What I heard was that technically, it was "possible," but as a practical matter, not likely. That is still true.

They're just going by the numbers. Facts & probabilities.

I never heard anyone say it wasn't possible. The media always said it WAS possible...just not likely. As opposed to the House, where it was LIKELY we'd take it.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 08:06 PM

41. I'm still too burned by 2016 to be TOO optimistic. But the momentum looks good. nt

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Response to Honeycombe8 (Reply #41)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 08:19 PM

44. Ditto........and still not over 2016

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Response to Honeycombe8 (Reply #41)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 02:18 AM

61. SERIOUSLY? This is a THUNDERDOME CAGE MATCH FIGHT TO THE DEATH!!!

RIGHT NOW, there is ONLY time for ACTION!!! Look for ways to help GOTV! Fill your time with writing encouraging, funny, helpful or informative posts. Drive neighbors who need rides to the polls. Stay at your polling place all day and night tommorrow with a sign offering the 1-866-OUR-VOTE phone number to voters who were told they couldnt vote. FOCUS and take on this task. It's that simple!

There will be time to wallow in our emotions on wed., or the coming weeks, if CA becomes the deciding House factor.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 08:27 PM

46. Here's a thought

 

I wonder what's the chance of this scenario developing.

-- Democrats will take the House and damn near every committee will open at least one investigation into some part of the Trump criminal enterprise.

-- As the investigations proceed, the public will see the evil that is Trump.

-- Trump's favorables will sink into the toilet.

-- Republicans keep the Senate, but, as the Democrat-led House investigations reveal the true nature of Trump and his gang, a LOT of Senate Republicans become disgusted.

-- The fact that Republicans must defend 22 Senate seats in 2020 (to Democrats' 11) will weigh heavily on Senate Republicans.

-- Senate Republicans will realize: (1) Trump is a dead weight on their party; (2) Republican Senators are in trouble.

-- All this will lead Senate Republicans to launch their own investigations into Trump, to save their own asses.

We can always hope.

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Response to Roadside Attraction (Reply #46)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 12:55 AM

58. That is basically what happened to Nixon and he took 49 states.

We have to establish a fact based argument

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 08:33 PM

48. I hope I have heard the last of Scott after tomorrow.



What a weasel.

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Response to lpbk2713 (Reply #48)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 11:38 PM

56. Same...but he will never lose by 4-7 points

 

I have no trouble dismissing late polls that makes no sense.

Florida is a razor tight state and Republicans are incredibly well organized here, as evidenced by the registration gains since 2016 and the early voting particulars.

I'll be thrilled if Rick Scott loses by exactly the tight margins that he won by in 2010 and 2014, somewhere around a point or point and a half.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2018, 08:37 PM

50. I think dems get 51 seats

Dems win:

MO, MT, IN , WV, AZ, NV, and TX

I do believe Beto will win Texas


Dems fall short in ND.

I am on the fence about TN but that would be even better...

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 12:58 AM

59. Missouri is planning for a probable recount

on the Senate race with the way the polls have been. I have heard this from several people that there is a probability unless it is a definitive win we should expect a recount with no declared winner for a few days.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 01:09 AM

60. winning the senate would be very nice in the wake of the Kavanaugh disaster

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:43 AM

65. My 2016 PTSD is flaring, but I can't help wondering what

Trump heard that's caused him to, for a few seconds anyway, wish he'd talked nicer.

Might have nothing to do with the senate, of course. Trump apparently has belatedly come to realize what midterms are.

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