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Author | Time | Post |
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honest.abe | Nov 2018 | OP |
NewJeffCT | Nov 2018 | #1 | |
honest.abe | Nov 2018 | #5 | |
genxlib | Nov 2018 | #2 | |
honest.abe | Nov 2018 | #6 | |
YessirAtsaFact | Nov 2018 | #3 | |
honest.abe | Nov 2018 | #8 | |
rgbecker | Nov 2018 | #4 | |
honest.abe | Nov 2018 | #7 | |
JCMach1 | Nov 2018 | #9 | |
YessirAtsaFact | Nov 2018 | #10 | |
jcgoldie | Nov 2018 | #11 | |
honest.abe | Nov 2018 | #14 | |
Tanuki | Nov 2018 | #19 | |
jcgoldie | Nov 2018 | #21 | |
Firestorm49 | Nov 2018 | #12 | |
honest.abe | Nov 2018 | #13 | |
grantcart | Nov 2018 | #16 | |
honest.abe | Nov 2018 | #24 | |
blogslut | Nov 2018 | #22 | |
Drunken Irishman | Nov 2018 | #15 | |
grantcart | Nov 2018 | #20 | |
RhodeIslandOne | Nov 2018 | #17 | |
vercetti2021 | Nov 2018 | #18 | |
peggysue2 | Nov 2018 | #23 | |
D_Master81 | Nov 2018 | #25 | |
bearsfootball516 | Nov 2018 | #26 |
Response to honest.abe (Original post)
Mon Nov 5, 2018, 09:16 AM
NewJeffCT (56,441 posts)
1. I'd be happy if Democrats took the House and didn't lose seats in the senate
I'm shocked, to be honest, that we're even talking about the possibility of Dems winning the Senate - with a decent economy, Dems should be looking at losing 5-9 seats with the kind of map they're up against.
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Response to NewJeffCT (Reply #1)
Mon Nov 5, 2018, 09:20 AM
honest.abe (5,320 posts)
5. Yeah, that would be great but without the Senate there could be another Idiot appointed Supreme.
That could be the final nail.
I think there is a real legitimate chance to win back the Senate given the recent polling and news of massive early voting. |
Response to honest.abe (Original post)
Mon Nov 5, 2018, 09:16 AM
genxlib (3,992 posts)
2. If I read your map correctly
You need TX and TN to tie.
That still leaves the Senate deadlocked with Pence casting the tie-breaker. |
Response to genxlib (Reply #2)
Mon Nov 5, 2018, 09:21 AM
honest.abe (5,320 posts)
6. Nope.. I have 50 without TX or TN (note they are browned out)
Either one gives us 51.
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Response to honest.abe (Original post)
Mon Nov 5, 2018, 09:17 AM
YessirAtsaFact (2,049 posts)
3. I have naive hope that both flip Blue
I think Texas is more likely than Tennessee but the number of new voters in both states is off the charts.
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Response to YessirAtsaFact (Reply #3)
Mon Nov 5, 2018, 09:23 AM
honest.abe (5,320 posts)
8. Yep, Texas looks like a real possibility.
Wouldn't it be lovely!
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Response to honest.abe (Original post)
Mon Nov 5, 2018, 09:19 AM
rgbecker (4,328 posts)
4. I love your optimism in MO., AZ., Fl., MT n/t.
Response to rgbecker (Reply #4)
Mon Nov 5, 2018, 09:22 AM
honest.abe (5,320 posts)
7. Yeah.. have to be or I would jump off a cliff.
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Response to honest.abe (Original post)
Mon Nov 5, 2018, 09:34 AM
JCMach1 (25,920 posts)
9. Both are breaking D direcection
Response to JCMach1 (Reply #9)
Mon Nov 5, 2018, 10:04 AM
YessirAtsaFact (2,049 posts)
10. I'm naively optimistic about both
You have to like the number of new vein both states
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Response to honest.abe (Original post)
Mon Nov 5, 2018, 10:06 AM
jcgoldie (7,205 posts)
11. I agree with your map
Would love for Beto to put us over the top and if so they can have Tennessee.
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Response to jcgoldie (Reply #11)
Mon Nov 5, 2018, 11:09 AM
honest.abe (5,320 posts)
14. Beto for the win!
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Response to jcgoldie (Reply #11)
Mon Nov 5, 2018, 11:27 AM
Tanuki (12,250 posts)
19. ..."they can have Tennessee." No they can't! I live here and I am still fighting like hell.
Please don't count Phil Bredesen out before the day of November 6 is over! You may be surprised at his support in some groups that have been historically undersampled in the polling. It all comes down to which party can GOTV more effectively, so please don't be dismissive! Marsha Blackburn will vote against everything you stand for and everything you believe in, so think long and hard before you say she can "have" that senate seat.
We are all in this together. ![]() |
Response to Tanuki (Reply #19)
Mon Nov 5, 2018, 11:29 AM
jcgoldie (7,205 posts)
21. Sorry
Didn't mean to offend hard working democrats in Tennessee, only meant if someone offered a 51-49 democrat controlled senate right now we'd all take it!
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Response to honest.abe (Original post)
Mon Nov 5, 2018, 11:05 AM
Firestorm49 (2,595 posts)
12. The rigging is already in place for close elections.
It’s called gerrymandering and voter suppression. We won’t win in a state where its a close call.
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Response to Firestorm49 (Reply #12)
Mon Nov 5, 2018, 11:08 AM
honest.abe (5,320 posts)
13. The gerrymandering and voter suppression wont be enough this time.
The blue tsunami will overwhelm that crap.
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Response to Firestorm49 (Reply #12)
Mon Nov 5, 2018, 11:13 AM
grantcart (51,069 posts)
16. Curious how does someone gerrymander a US Senate seat that is decided statewide?
Voter suppression attempts frequently trigger higher voting on the targeted population and that seems to be the case here with record mid term turnout.
The biggest obstacle to massive Democratic victory in mid terms is low Democratic turnout, we suppress ourselves. |
Response to grantcart (Reply #16)
Mon Nov 5, 2018, 11:51 AM
honest.abe (5,320 posts)
24. Move the state lines I guess..
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Response to Firestorm49 (Reply #12)
Mon Nov 5, 2018, 11:34 AM
blogslut (34,853 posts)
22. Gerrymandering doesn't apply in the TX senate race
Whoever gets the most votes wins, unless it's crazy close then a runoff might take place.
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Response to honest.abe (Original post)
Mon Nov 5, 2018, 11:10 AM
Drunken Irishman (33,954 posts)
15. I think Democrats eke out wins in NV, AZ, MT, IN and MO...
However, I am not hopeful on Tennessee or Texas. Still, I could see Tennessee going Democratic if I had to pick the most likely of the two.
Sadly, I do not think Beto will carry Texas. |
Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #15)
Mon Nov 5, 2018, 11:27 AM
grantcart (51,069 posts)
20. We have a goid chance in both.
The key metric in elections with 20% or higher than normal turnout is negatives by the candidates.
In both TN and TX Cruz and Blackburn both have extremely high negatives and this means that they have an effective ceiling and increased turnout will break against them. Also undecideds generally break against incumbents. Finally the latest polls are showing significant breaking towards D, polling after the latest shooting and the repeal of birthright citizenship. We may have reached the final straw for a critical 10% of the population. I find it very interesting that Trump has returned to Montana 4 times and polls still show Tester ahead. |
Response to honest.abe (Original post)
Mon Nov 5, 2018, 11:23 AM
RhodeIslandOne (5,042 posts)
17. I'll take my chances with that map at 11PM tomorrow night
Response to honest.abe (Original post)
Mon Nov 5, 2018, 11:24 AM
vercetti2021 (4,887 posts)
18. Beto squeaks out and wins
God please? I'd break down crying if he does.
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Response to vercetti2021 (Reply #18)
Mon Nov 5, 2018, 11:50 AM
peggysue2 (7,515 posts)
23. A lot of us would break down crying because . . .
it would be a political earthquake and a clear indication that the American public, Texans specifically, had voted for our Better Angels, the America we need to be.
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Response to honest.abe (Original post)
Mon Nov 5, 2018, 12:36 PM
D_Master81 (1,598 posts)
25. I'm not sold on Donnelly
I know the polling has been in his favor, but in conservative country there’s Braun signs EVERYWHERE
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Response to D_Master81 (Reply #25)
Mon Nov 5, 2018, 01:23 PM
bearsfootball516 (5,771 posts)
26. I've seen it the other way.
I'm in blood red Elkhart County, and the Donnelly signs here outnumber Braun 10-1.
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