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Sun Nov 4, 2018, 03:06 PM

St Pete Polls gives pRick Scott lead over Nelson (but w/i MoE)

http://www.fox35orlando.com/news/politics/rick-scott-takes-rare-lead-in-last-minute-florida-senate-poll-as-toss-ups-dominate-the-map
The results, from St. Pete Polls, give Scott a lead of 49.1 percent to 47.5 percent, within the margin of error, with 3.4 percent undecided. Conversely, the same group of likely voters surveyed by St. Pete Polls preferred Democrat Andrew Gillum to Republican Ron DeSantis in the state's gubernatorial contest to replace the term-limited Scott, 48.4 percent to 43.6 percent, with 3.7 percent undecided. Every other major recent poll tracked by RealClearPolitics (RCP) also shows DeSantis trailing by small margins.

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Reply St Pete Polls gives pRick Scott lead over Nelson (but w/i MoE) (Original post)
Roland99 Nov 4 OP
uponit7771 Nov 4 #1
mcar Nov 4 #2
Roland99 Nov 4 #3
Awsi Dooger Nov 4 #8
musicblind Nov 4 #9
Qutzupalotl Nov 4 #4
DinahMoeHum Nov 4 #5
quaker bill Nov 4 #6
Roland99 Nov 4 #7

Response to Roland99 (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2018, 03:16 PM

1. Hopefully Gillium will carry Nelson over

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Response to Roland99 (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2018, 03:18 PM

2. I find it impossible to believe that a voter

would choose Gillum and Scott. Impossible.

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Response to mcar (Reply #2)

Sun Nov 4, 2018, 03:21 PM

3. Couldn't find a link to the poll and its methodology

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Response to mcar (Reply #2)

Sun Nov 4, 2018, 03:36 PM

8. Scott has a bullshit image as concerned citizen

You'd be shocked how many people have been gullible enough to fall for it. I hear one positive comment after another. When I deflect it they don't listen.

Scott understood he was in trouble in a blue year so he started showing up at Florida tragedies like Pulse and Irma and also the Puerto Rico stuff, desperate to alter his image.

The local stations give him tons of air time during hurricane preparation and aftermath. I'm not sure that is fully understood elsewhere. Hurricanes dominate the news for a full week if not 10+ days. Rick Scott is plastered all over the local news each of those days, reading out official announcements of how to prepare and then how to recover.

Scott was going to lose, if Michael hadn't hit the panhandle and allowed him to receive tons of free positive publicity. Now it is a coin flip race. We have to hope fundamentals carry the day for Nelson.

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Response to mcar (Reply #2)

Sun Nov 4, 2018, 03:53 PM

9. I would consider it unlikely but not impossible.

I've come to learn few things are truly "impossible" in politics.

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Response to Roland99 (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2018, 03:27 PM

4. We can overwhelm pollster models with a huge GOTV.

Now that we see the fascist for what he is, we are motivated to do just that.

If likely voters are split almost evenly, unlikely (new) voters can tip the balance, and there are TONS this year.

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Response to Roland99 (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2018, 03:28 PM

5. Remember, though. Polls Don't Vote. People Do.

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Response to Roland99 (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2018, 03:32 PM

6. I do not know how they are rated

but I find this polling outfit pretty suspect. One recent version had DeSantis closing on Gillum but if you looked at the cross tabs, they had DeSantis getting 25% of the Black voters.... Not gonna happen.

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Response to Roland99 (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2018, 03:34 PM

7. Ok. Well. They're not the most accurate and solely use St Pete demographics

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