IA-04: Steve King moves to Lean Republican
King's tweets that “we can't restore our civilization with somebody else's babies" and his travels to meet with far-right European figures have made him a pariah in the House and enraged Democrats. It's less clear his views have damaged his political standing back home in northwest Iowa, where King has routinely won easily and President Trump took 60 percent in 2016.
However, a poll this week by Democratic firm Change Research found King leading by just 45 percent to 44 percent against his first credible challenger in six years, former minor league baseball pitcher J.D. Scholten. Even in an R+11 seat, the poll makes some sense because Scholten and an anti-King group, American Values PAC, have been on the airwaves totally unanswered the past two weeks.
Scholten has outraised King $1.7 million to $741,000 this cycle in large part thanks to disgusted national donors who view King as a racist. But in his ads, Scholten attacks King as AWOL from the district rather than criticizing the incumbent's views on western civilization. Instead, it's American Values PAC that's savaging King for "flying around Europe meeting with neo-Nazis."
Unlike in 2012, when King ran a vigorous campaign to beat former Iowa First Lady Christie Vilsack, King isn't mounting a serious defense. Of the $782,000 King has spent this cycle, most has been spent on fundraising or salaries. With a week to go, he's yet to air an ad. And amid tariffs, the political environment in Iowa is much more challenging for the GOP than it was in 2016.
Scholten grew up in Sioux City (where his father coached the Morningside College baseball team), attended the University of Nebraska and pitched for the semi-pro Sioux City Explorers before playing in Europe. His recent time as a paralegal in Seattle and 2016 vote for Hillary Clinton are big liabilities, but it's unclear King has the resources to air them, and few seem willing to bail King out.
https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/one-week-out-six-rating-changes
J.D. SCHOLTEN
https://www.scholten4iowa.com
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