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Mon Oct 15, 2018, 12:19 PM

 

On Election Day, Clinton had an 85% chance of winning...page 45 of FEAR..

from FEAR page 45....

"On election nite, it was remarkable to watch the needle on the live forecast dial on the New Your Times website, which started out giving Clinton an 85% chance of winning...."

And DU ladies and gentlemen, this is why I WILL NEVER BELIEVE ANOTHER POLL as long as I live...

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Reply On Election Day, Clinton had an 85% chance of winning...page 45 of FEAR.. (Original post)
jodymarie aimee Oct 2018 OP
Iliyah Oct 2018 #1
triron Oct 2018 #16
edhopper Oct 2018 #18
jberryhill Oct 2018 #2
jodymarie aimee Oct 2018 #3
jberryhill Oct 2018 #4
qazplm135 Oct 2018 #11
bearsfootball516 Oct 2018 #5
marylandblue Oct 2018 #6
Generic Brad Oct 2018 #10
mtnsnake Oct 2018 #7
uponit7771 Oct 2018 #8
JHan Oct 2018 #9
andym Oct 2018 #12
USALiberal Oct 2018 #13
marylandblue Oct 2018 #14
Power 2 the People Oct 2018 #15
triron Oct 2018 #17

Response to jodymarie aimee (Original post)

Mon Oct 15, 2018, 12:22 PM

1. 2016 Elections was stolen . . .

plain and simple. Will GOPers try to do it again, yes. Good thing, there is no EC involved.

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Response to Iliyah (Reply #1)

Mon Oct 15, 2018, 02:51 PM

16. People keep ignoring that for some reason.

Wasn't the polls or the exit polls or a poor campaign; the election was
stolen by traitors, pure and simple. But the denial will continue so long
as the belief in free and fair elections.

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Response to Iliyah (Reply #1)

Mon Oct 15, 2018, 02:52 PM

18. Yes!

Polls don't account for voter suppression.

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Response to jodymarie aimee (Original post)

Mon Oct 15, 2018, 12:24 PM

2. 85% chance of winning is a 15% chance of not winning

 


this is why I WILL NEVER BELIEVE ANOTHER POLL as long as I live...


First off, a forecast probability is not a "poll". Secondly, and simply put, Clinton got more votes.

"85% chance of winning" does not mean "definitely will win", however, so maybe it would be a good idea to stay away from numbers absent an understanding of what they mean.

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Response to jberryhill (Reply #2)

Mon Oct 15, 2018, 12:27 PM

3. You talkin' to me?

 

or Bob Woodward...or 538?

p.s. winning means winning, taking into consideration that we have an EC...

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Response to jodymarie aimee (Reply #3)

Mon Oct 15, 2018, 12:30 PM

4. And 85 is less than 100

 


Do you understand what an "85% chance" means?

If someone pointed a gun at your head and said there was an 85% chance it was not loaded, would you say, "Okay, go ahead and pull the trigger?"

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Response to jodymarie aimee (Reply #3)

Mon Oct 15, 2018, 01:35 PM

11. winning means winning

85% chance of winning means very likely to win, but not assured.

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Response to jberryhill (Reply #2)

Mon Oct 15, 2018, 12:31 PM

5. That's what a lot of people don't understand.

Going into the night, Nate Silver gave Hillary something like a 70 percent chance of winning. That's far from a sure thing. 30 percent for Trump isn't good, but it's a far cry from impossible, and was very doable if things fell the right way.

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Response to bearsfootball516 (Reply #5)

Mon Oct 15, 2018, 12:42 PM

6. people don't understand probability very well, which is why casinos make money

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Response to marylandblue (Reply #6)

Mon Oct 15, 2018, 01:33 PM

10. Most casinos

Trump lost money for n the casino business

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Response to jodymarie aimee (Original post)

Mon Oct 15, 2018, 01:18 PM

7. Amen to the point you're making

Just like you, I will never put any credence into any poll ever again either. I swear to god every time the media comes out early in an election run with polls showing Democrats ahead, it's like they go out of their way to put the jinx on us.

Every now and then I wish there was no such thing as polls, or at least no publishing them. When the polls are going against us, it's just too stressful worrying that they will hold up until election day, and when the polls are going our way, I worry to death they're going to lose steam because of the media wanting to keep everything close for better ratings.

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Response to jodymarie aimee (Original post)

Mon Oct 15, 2018, 01:22 PM

8. The national polls were right on, the state level polls were wrong and there's be little to no

... socialized explanation of how they were so wrong in those red states that implemented pervasive voter suppression

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Response to jodymarie aimee (Original post)

Mon Oct 15, 2018, 01:24 PM

9. As others have said , it's about probability.

Look at it this way: Think of the probability of a coin flip landing on tails 3 times ( or more) Probability factors in the unthinkable, "the odds".

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Response to jodymarie aimee (Original post)

Mon Oct 15, 2018, 01:52 PM

12. 71.4% of winning at 538

Which came to closest to predicting Trump-- many folks here were dissing 538 at the time. But polls in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania were just plain wrong. In fact the whole Midwest was off. And Florida wasn't far behind. 538 did mention that if polling was off it would not be random, but consistent in one direction.

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Response to andym (Reply #12)

Mon Oct 15, 2018, 01:54 PM

13. People were insulted for posting Nates numbers. Nt

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Response to jodymarie aimee (Original post)

Mon Oct 15, 2018, 02:06 PM

14. Undecided voters and 3rd party voters are difficult to predict.

Undecideds don't know themselves what they will do. Many people who say they will vote 3rd party end up switching to R or D. In states where Clinton was ahead by a few points, there were enough undecideds to swing the race if they broke strongly for Trump, which they did.

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Response to jodymarie aimee (Original post)

Mon Oct 15, 2018, 02:47 PM

15. I believe the polls but I don't believe the vote

Republicans have been rigging the machines for years. No coincidence,no accident.

https://www.electiondefense.org/how-to-part-eleven/

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Response to jodymarie aimee (Original post)

Mon Oct 15, 2018, 02:52 PM

17. Sam Wang of the PEC gave her 99% chance.

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