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Thu Oct 11, 2018, 12:09 AM

Two interesting things about Texas



1) Cruz refuses to debate

2) I don't see Trump going down to Texas, maybe he will later.


First of all I don't think Trump will go to Texas if he isn't pretty sure that Cruz is going to win. He wants to be able to say "I went there, he was losing and I put him over". He doesn't want people to say that he caused the difference and lost it.

Cruz, the championship debater doesn't want a town hall with Beto. CNN trapped him. If it was a moderated panel then Cruz could just say "there you go again with that liberal claptrap that people worry about their health care". Kind of difficult to do when a kid comes up to the mike and says "my mother can't afford her cancer medicine what are you going to do about it?"

In any case these are the droppings of a campaign that is scared.


National Presidential polls are scary good because they have so many turn out models to base their judgement on.

Off year election polls are more difficult but national polls like the generic congressional poll can work because they have multi year models to look at.

State wide polls are much less reliable.


However polls in a race where personality and charisma are such a driving force are really without a model to compare to.

Beto has moved the polls from double digit to MOE.

Cruz running away from a debate and Trump not coming seems to indicate that its either tied or within+/- 2%


The difference between the Democratic GOTV and the Republican GOTV is much more than 2%

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Arrow 22 replies Author Time Post
Reply Two interesting things about Texas (Original post)
grantcart Oct 11 OP
ProudLib72 Oct 11 #1
blogslut Oct 11 #2
cannabis_flower Oct 11 #13
TexasTowelie Oct 11 #3
JI7 Oct 11 #4
Cha Oct 11 #5
Mazeltov Cocktail Oct 11 #15
argyl Oct 11 #6
Laura PourMeADrink Oct 11 #9
argyl Oct 11 #20
Laura PourMeADrink Oct 12 #21
Awsi Dooger Oct 11 #7
duforsure Oct 11 #8
Laura PourMeADrink Oct 11 #10
avebury Oct 11 #11
jpljr77 Oct 11 #12
rkleinberger Oct 11 #14
JCMach1 Oct 11 #16
TexasBushwhacker Oct 11 #17
JCMach1 Oct 11 #18
TexasBushwhacker Oct 11 #19
JCMach1 Oct 12 #22

Response to grantcart (Original post)

Thu Oct 11, 2018, 12:16 AM

1. If the Rump never comes, or if he comes and Cruz loses,

would Cruz disparage the Rump? That would be a lovely thing to witness.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Thu Oct 11, 2018, 01:34 AM

2. Correct me if I'm wrong.

But the CNN town hall isn't one of the previously scheduled Cruz-O'Rourke debates. IIRC, there is an official debate between The ZODIAC Killer and Beto, scheduled for October 16.

Not saying Cruz isn't running scared. I know he is. Not saying Lying Ted won't bail on the 10/16 debate in San Antonio. Just saying that the CNN Town Hall (10/18) was an extra deal.

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Response to blogslut (Reply #2)

Thu Oct 11, 2018, 02:35 PM

13. And..

they did have one debate already, although Cruz refused a debate in Spanish. He said he didn't speak Spanish well enough to debate in it.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Thu Oct 11, 2018, 02:26 AM

3. What, they couldn't find a football stadium to hold the rally like Donald said in his tweet?

There are only 20 more days left in October so they better get moving. Regional marching band contests are going on around the state this Saturday and the area contests are on October 27. Quality stadium venues may be at a premium!

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Thu Oct 11, 2018, 02:32 AM

4. Cruz has done those CNN debates with Bernie Sanders

i think they had one on health care and maybe taxes or some other thing.


but now that he is actually up for re-election and people will watch with the thought of whether to vote for him he isn't up to it ?????

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Thu Oct 11, 2018, 02:37 AM

5. The "champion debater" is scared

shitless of Beto O'Rouke and a Town Hall.

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Response to Cha (Reply #5)

Thu Oct 11, 2018, 05:22 PM

15. Actually. ..

Ted Cruz is a master (de)bater....I'll leave now...

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Thu Oct 11, 2018, 02:44 AM

6. Trump won't come. He'd never match Beto and Willie's 55,000 turnout.

And he knows it.

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Response to argyl (Reply #6)

Thu Oct 11, 2018, 12:05 PM

9. Sorry..correction on that. There weren't 55k. No

Tickets, no central entry. So no way to count. They took the Facebook "interested" and added to "going" to come up with 50k range. Actually, there were between 15-20k per tv news crew estimates.

That said. We went and it was a fantastic event...and we were very excited with the enthusiasm of the crowd. Amazed everyone already had Beto t-shirts

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Response to Laura PourMeADrink (Reply #9)

Thu Oct 11, 2018, 08:57 PM

20. Well, maybe Trump could manage 15/20 K.

But his crowd would be looking at their watches waiting for the boredom to end so they could pick up their checks. And Dumpty would probably pay them with a MAGA cap marked up in price.

I'd have loved to have seen Beto and Willie in Austin. Bet they had the crowd as stoked as an A list act at ACL.

Anyway, I've already cast my vote for Beto. We'll know the outcome in 25 days. Win or lose, it's been interesting and Beto won't be going away.

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Response to argyl (Reply #20)

Fri Oct 12, 2018, 12:00 AM

21. Yes .crowd was great... beautiful night .looking over at the city

lights. Everyone so chill. Like I said, no entry, people just descended. Zero rules...which was so amazingly refreshing. No metal detectors or pat downs. Young and old - just brought a blanket/chair..wine
whatever. And the aroma of pot was everywhere.

But it wasn't like a concert. The people were serious..and when Beto spoke.. everyone stood and listened to every word. Many left right after..didn't even wait to hear Willie. It was almost like a group.."this is serious business electing this man."

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Thu Oct 11, 2018, 03:29 AM

7. GOTV is not worth 2% period, let alone 2% gap between parties

I realize this is an argument I'll never win. People prefer fanciful adjustments. Somehow that 2% joined the dialog and won't go away, just like every college or pro football or basketball fan base always wants to believe it is two recruiting years away or two drafts away. Never three. Always two.

As a gambler I don't know how many times I have won by totally ignoring GOTV assertions and totally ignoring turnout in relation to raw preference. When the preference realities are there, turnout and motivation mean nothing. If you simply look at the number of votes that 2% represents it is laughable to think GOTV is accomplishing that.

There were nutty rationalizations here late in 2016 that Hillary's margin was actually above the polling because we would dominate GOTV.

Trump will show up in Texas because his instincts will be competent enough to understand that this race is more safe for Cruz than conventional wisdom allows, and therefore Trump can claim bullshit credit for a victory that was going to happen anyway.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Thu Oct 11, 2018, 05:34 AM

8. People are running away from Ted Cruz here in Texas

In large numbers. Trump is causing many to run away , now especially women voters, and many also are done with Cruz as he's shown to be a fraud , and voted against the people with their tax scam bills and he supported the caging of little children, and all the corruption that's running wild out of this White House and from this administration now. People really , really hate trump and Cruz and will never vote for them again now after what they've seen and heard from these two serial liars and corrupt people. His only way to win is with rigging it now with help from the party taking people off the polls , and from putin and his hackers manipulating the voters numbers to win with. No ones lies as much as trump and Cruz that AREN'T corrupt. People are waking up now to it.

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Response to duforsure (Reply #8)

Thu Oct 11, 2018, 12:09 PM

10. Hope u are right but new quinipiac poll has cruz

pulling away. He is hitting Facebook very hard with negative and untrue stuff on Beto. And the bots are freaking over it. I think it bought Cruz 6 points

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Thu Oct 11, 2018, 12:19 PM

11. Where is the chicken costume from The West Wing when you need it?

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Thu Oct 11, 2018, 12:32 PM

12. 1) It wasn't a debate, and there will be another one before the election. 2) Trump will visit Texas

Ted Cruz is a horrible human being (YEAH, I SAID IT!) who deserves nothing but what he puts out into the world: misery and loathing. But there's no reason to lie about him or his match up with Beto.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Thu Oct 11, 2018, 03:33 PM

14. Beto Win Spectacular

If Beto can pull this off (polls showing -6 to Cruz, but not sure if polls are accurate in this race) then it would be like winning the Presidency in some ways. Bringing down the lying lizard tongue Cruz and then throwing the loss into Republican and conservative faces would be priceless!!!

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Thu Oct 11, 2018, 06:15 PM

16. Will go out on a limb an say the polls are pretty meaningless in this race. It's close

and ultimately will depend on turnout. If TX gets its pathetic 30% turnout, Beto will probably lose... There is also a key question as to whether Republican apathy and dislike for Cruz will keep them home. They may showup for their popular Governor here. Even most Republicans don't like Cruz, but would probably never vote Beto. That's the conundrum...

Also, there is still almost a month remaining... time for either candidate to seal the deal.

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Response to JCMach1 (Reply #16)

Thu Oct 11, 2018, 06:22 PM

17. Indeed. Texas really isn't a red state. It's a non-voting state

Less than 50% of the voting age population is registered and less than 60% of them voted in 2016.

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Response to TexasBushwhacker (Reply #17)

Thu Oct 11, 2018, 06:28 PM

18. Exactly, Blue and Indys just don't vote here otherwise TX would be at least Purplish

And it's how we get some of the absolute worst Republicans in public office here...

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Response to JCMach1 (Reply #18)

Thu Oct 11, 2018, 08:39 PM

19. And that is my big beef with the Electoral College

It discourages voting by the minority party in all non-swing states. Why shouldn't my vote for Clinton in Texas matter, or for Trump in NY? It's simply Un-American to do anything that discourages voting. The EC also awards 100% of the states electors regardless of voter turnout. There could be awful voter turnout in NY and great voter turnout in Florida, but they will still get 29 electoral votes each. There is no benefit for high voter participation for the highest position in the US. There should be.

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Response to TexasBushwhacker (Reply #19)

Fri Oct 12, 2018, 03:19 PM

22. Why all blue states need to push the interstate compact on the electoral college

We can fix the problem without even changing the Constitution... if enough states allocated electoral votes by Popular Vote, it de facto changes how we elect the President...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact

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