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Wed Oct 10, 2018, 09:16 PM

We are doing better in Senate races than anyone thought we would but we still will likely not get

the Senate. We lost the Senate in 2014 and 2016 and only a miracle will get it back for us now. We have leads in the double digits in both MN races, WI, OH, PA, MI. We have single digit, steady leads in IN, MT, WV. We have narrow leads in AZ, and NV. Even with all of this, we are likely to either stay even or even lose a seat in the Senate. So how did we get into this mess. In 2014 we lost a bunch of seats. In 2016 we also lost seats we should have won. There will be a lot of blame about Kavanaugh if we don''t get the Senate but that is ridiculous. ND was always going to be super tough. She barely won 6 years ago. ND was one of Trump's best states. It was always likely to return to form. If she were to win, it would be a huge upset. TN and TX were huge long shots at best.

All signs point to this being a great election for us. Governors races in many states are moving away from the GOP. IL, MI, OH, PA, are pretty much Democratic locks. FL looks pretty good. GA is a toss up. MN, CO have small but steady leads. All but PA would be a Democratic pick up. The House is looking very good. The GOP is triaging races. Even heavily gerrymandered NC could gain us 3 seats out of 13 seats. Honestly, no one thought we would get more than one here coming in. This is looking more and more like 2006 in the House. And don't forget state legislatures. We are favored to pick up hundreds of seats in those.

The thing is we have to vote in all elections, not just some. Not voting in 2014 is why we are in the Senate mess we are in now.

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Arrow 29 replies Author Time Post
Reply We are doing better in Senate races than anyone thought we would but we still will likely not get (Original post)
dsc Oct 10 OP
Squinch Oct 10 #1
Turin_C3PO Oct 10 #3
More_Cowbell Oct 10 #9
LBM20 Oct 10 #6
D_Master81 Oct 10 #2
LBM20 Oct 10 #4
Turin_C3PO Oct 10 #5
dsc Oct 10 #8
LBM20 Oct 10 #7
Dawson Leery Oct 10 #10
pstokely Oct 10 #12
Alhena Oct 10 #13
DeminPennswoods Oct 11 #25
EndGOPPropaganda Oct 11 #15
MiniMe Oct 11 #16
Hermit-The-Prog Oct 10 #11
Awsi Dooger Oct 10 #14
Beartracks Oct 11 #17
Greg K Oct 11 #18
Greg K Oct 11 #19
DinahMoeHum Oct 11 #20
Awsi Dooger Oct 11 #21
Honeycombe8 Oct 11 #28
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 11 #22
dsc Oct 11 #23
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 11 #24
dsc Oct 11 #26
saidsimplesimon Oct 11 #27
Amaryllis Oct 11 #29

Response to dsc (Original post)

Wed Oct 10, 2018, 09:25 PM

1. This is a really important point. The media will portray this as a Dem loss if we

don't get the Senate. But the odds are stacked really high against it, and we are doing amazingly well. In 2020, if we keep this up, we will win back the Senate easily.

We need to keep our eyes on the prize. When the media bemoans the condition of the Democratic party if we just win back the House, we need to remember that they are wrong.

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Response to Squinch (Reply #1)

Wed Oct 10, 2018, 09:31 PM

3. Yes

2020 we will likely clean up in the Senate. Many more competitive races that year.

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Response to Turin_C3PO (Reply #3)

Wed Oct 10, 2018, 10:08 PM

9. I agree; if we win the House, there will be investigations and the release of already-found material

I have high hopes that both the House and Senate will be Democratic by 2020.

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Response to Squinch (Reply #1)

Wed Oct 10, 2018, 09:33 PM

6. We can and MUST take the HOUSE and the state and local races. GOTV GOTV GOTV!!!

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Response to dsc (Original post)

Wed Oct 10, 2018, 09:30 PM

2. In 2016

had anyone said "the republicans won't pick up any seats in the Senate in 2018" it would be considered a loss for them and a win for the Dems. This is 1 of the most brutal setups for the Dems this year and to be even talking about winning the Senate is a miracle almost.

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Response to dsc (Original post)

Wed Oct 10, 2018, 09:32 PM

4. We have WAY more seats to defend than they do. Just the map and timing. Not our fault. BUT,

we should take the House and state and local races BIGTIME. GOTV GOTV GOTV!!!

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Response to dsc (Original post)

Wed Oct 10, 2018, 09:32 PM

5. Here in NM

We will likely replace our GOP governor with a Democrat. I canít wait .

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Response to Turin_C3PO (Reply #5)

Wed Oct 10, 2018, 09:35 PM

8. forgot that one

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Response to dsc (Original post)

Wed Oct 10, 2018, 09:33 PM

7. Good chance in Maine for Gov., US House, and State Legislature!! GOTV GOTV GOTV.

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Response to dsc (Original post)

Wed Oct 10, 2018, 10:14 PM

10. 50/50 is doable.

The GOP would keep control but have no room for error. Combine this with a Blue House, the GOP will be unable to do much.
Certainly, there will be many investigations.

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Response to Dawson Leery (Reply #10)

Wed Oct 10, 2018, 11:18 PM

12. Could Murkowski switch if it's 50/50?

?

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Response to pstokely (Reply #12)

Wed Oct 10, 2018, 11:28 PM

13. Harder to do in a red state like Alaska

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Response to Alhena (Reply #13)

Thu Oct 11, 2018, 04:24 PM

25. She could easily be an Independent in AK

The current gov is an Independent, lt gov is A Dem. Murkowski was elected as a write-in candidate. If she became an Independent, she would become the most powerful senator in Washington, holding the balance of power for all legislation. She, King and Sanders could form a troika and vote as a bloc.

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Response to pstokely (Reply #12)

Thu Oct 11, 2018, 12:44 AM

15. Good point. Call her and thank her

Murkowski gave a great speech in which she said ďitís not about this nominee, itís about all the nominees and the corruption of the senateĒ

Maybe we just need to pick up one seat and Murkowski will join patriots on many judges.

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Response to pstokely (Reply #12)

Thu Oct 11, 2018, 01:06 AM

16. She could, but she won't

It's like saying Susan Collins is a Moderate Repub. There is no such thing any more

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Response to dsc (Original post)

Wed Oct 10, 2018, 11:10 PM

11. any polls in ND since Kavanawful?

That's a tough seat to defend, I know, but it sure would be sweet if Heitkamp gets a surge of votes for her stand on Bad Beer Bart.

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Response to dsc (Original post)

Wed Oct 10, 2018, 11:42 PM

14. Need Trump approval to drop

Heading in the correct direction, down from peak of 42.6% on 538 nearly a full point to 41.7%

I'd love to see that below 41% on election day

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Response to dsc (Original post)

Thu Oct 11, 2018, 11:30 AM

17. We must play the long game.

The GOP has steadily eroded liberties, rewarded greed, and stoked religious bigotry for DECADES to get where they are, and to drag America where it is now. They play the long game. Republican voters don't have to fall in love with their candidates, they don't do protest votes, and they don't pack their marbles and go home.

Democratic voters can't fight them back on a part-time or seasonal basis. It must be a full-time, full-on, and full-throated defense of democracy, liberty, and equality, and we must vote consistently and passionately in EVERY local, state, AND Federal election.

As the Blue Wave hits the political shore next month, there needs to be another one behind it, and another, and another. It must be a Blue Tsunami, not a single wave. And THAT is how America will get its democracy back.

==========

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Response to Beartracks (Reply #17)

Thu Oct 11, 2018, 11:36 AM

18. This.

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Response to dsc (Original post)

Thu Oct 11, 2018, 11:39 AM

19. We need to take the House. That will be the story even if they gain a Senate seat or two.

There will be a check on the Trump administration.

Governorships and state legislatures are just as important to contain GOP voter supression efforts.

And even if Beto loses against Cruz, he is gaining national cred.

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Response to Greg K (Reply #19)

Thu Oct 11, 2018, 03:27 PM

20. Governorships and state legislatures are far MORE important. . .

. . .as well as the races in 2019.

Remember, the next census is in 2020.

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Response to dsc (Original post)

Thu Oct 11, 2018, 03:42 PM

21. Nate Silver put up a bad number at 34.3% on his senate opener

I wish he hadn't done that. It led to some overboard hope here and elsewhere.

Other mathematical models were in the 16-22% range when Nate put up that 34.3%. 538 is now below 19%.

Now some of those other mathematical models have dropped to 10%:
https://0ptimus.decisiondeskhq.com/

Nate's model was relying on a wave but so many of those states have huge numbers of self-identified conservatives, and simply not vulnerable to a wave on the federal level, not unless the House generic number was 11-12% or higher. Nate's number was more like a compilation of governor races in the same states. Those governor races are not as tied to ideological percentages.

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Response to Awsi Dooger (Reply #21)

Thu Oct 11, 2018, 05:39 PM

28. Today I read on 538 that he gives the Repubs a 4 in 5 chance of keeping the Senate.

That's over a 70% chance. It was a 2 in 3 chance before. A 60-something% chance.

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Response to dsc (Original post)

Thu Oct 11, 2018, 03:45 PM

22. A good night for us is to win back the House and maintain the status quo in the Senate.

We should pick up 6-12 governor's mansions and nearly 500 state seats.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #22)

Thu Oct 11, 2018, 03:58 PM

23. yeah despite the fact that even taking California out we will almost certainly out poll the GOP in

Senate races. We might even out poll them if you take NY out but that is less likely. The only large state they will win by any significant amount is Texas and we should negate his win there with large wins in Ohio, PA, and MI.

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Response to dsc (Reply #23)

Thu Oct 11, 2018, 04:13 PM

24. This is encouraging

I expect net gains for Democrats in governorships of between six and a dozen, and a pickup for Democrats of between 400 and 650 state legislative seats, more than the average midterm loss of 375 seats for the party in the White House. These state elections are the most under-reported story in politics, with control of chambers likely tipping from Republicans to Democrats. Three-quarters of the governorships and four-fifths of the state legislative seats are up in these midterm cycles. Remember that with the inability or unwillingness of Washington to deal with so many problems, the resulting vacuum has given states considerably more power on many fronts. Then consider the massive gains on the state level for Republicans during the eight years of the Obama presidency, and how much of that ground could slip away.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/index.php/analysis/national/national-politics/real-blue-wave-could-come-states

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #24)

Thu Oct 11, 2018, 04:27 PM

26. even our gerrymandered districts in NC are in play to some extent

I live in the number 2 in the Senate's senate seat and I am getting very pricey mailers for him. I have gotten about 10 or so in the last month or so. Clearly they aren't using any filter in sending these (I have voted in every Democratic primary since I moved here) but they must feel somewhat uncertain of his chances to be spending that much.

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Response to dsc (Original post)

Thu Oct 11, 2018, 04:32 PM

27. Win or lose

My goal is to GOTV because "you can't win if you don't play". Some discount hope and dedicated efforts for change, I will never be one of those.

I am pragmatic, a fiscal conservative and live in a reality based world.

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Response to dsc (Original post)

Thu Oct 11, 2018, 07:49 PM

29. We are in the mess we are in now because of Russian and GOP interference, becasue this was the

first election without the full protection of the Voting Rights Act after it was gutted by SCOTUS, because of gerrymandering, because of highly hackable voting and vote counting machnes and tabulators, becasue of voter reg databases being purged by GOP and Russians, etc. etc. AND we need to do all we can to GOTV.

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