***Second poll ( A rated Marist poll ) today with Nelson in the lead 48-45 ***

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Link to tweet

[lark]

1. I'm phone banking for him every week.

We're having great response and getting more volunteers to up the effort every day.

#BLUEWAVE

[awesomerwb1]

6. Awesome!

Please keep up the hard and good work!

[a kennedy]

2. We care about registered voters right and not likely???

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. We should care about both of them

Best case scenario
Worst case scenario

[grantcart]

5. Very difficult question to answer actually

In a general election you would go with likely voters

In a heated off year election it is going to be much more difficult to nail down who is the likely voter


And here is the kicker Perez (under Obama guidance I believe) has made a major move in channelling dollars into GOTV and not wasting it on expensive commercials.

In AZ I get called almost every night to come down and phone from a different staffer. Including the paid staffers from Move On I have been contacted by more than 2 dozen paid field operators to come down and call.

This is going to have a huge impact on GOTV.

[mcar]

3. Yay!

[Awsi Dooger]

7. This margin makes more sense

I don't have any trouble laughing at garbage poll margins because I've studied polling and how it errs since 1992 with my PAN or Partisan Adjustment Number. Quinnipiac is nutty with the 7 but 3-5 is more real world, although <2 in favor of Nelson is where I would put it.

Takes quite a heavy lift to separate the two parties by more than 2 or 3 points in a heated race in Florida.