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Fri Sep 14, 2018, 10:06 AM

On EDIT: This Manafort plea deal is (not necessarily) BAD news

Last edited Fri Sep 14, 2018, 12:14 PM - Edit history (2)

He is pleading guilty to all charges, and has NOT agreed to a cooperation agreement with the Mueller probe.

This means that he and his lawyers KNOW, 100%, that he is going to be pardoned.

Trump will pardon him the day after the election, is my guess.

I hope Trump is dumb enough to pardon him before the election, thus increasing Dem turnout, but he won't. He will wait until after.

Today's news is not good. It means Manafort will escape justice and that he hasn't, and won't, flip on Trump.




ON EDIT: If Manafort *IS* cooperating with Mueller, than this could be good news. I'm skeptical that Manafort is going to give anything of value to Mueller.... but let's hope.

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Arrow 58 replies Author Time Post
Reply On EDIT: This Manafort plea deal is (not necessarily) BAD news (Original post)
scheming daemons Sep 14 OP
empedocles Sep 14 #1
lark Sep 14 #2
qazplm135 Sep 14 #18
NewJeffCT Sep 14 #3
berni_mccoy Sep 14 #4
FBaggins Sep 14 #14
manor321 Sep 14 #5
Arazi Sep 14 #7
PJMcK Sep 14 #9
grantcart Sep 14 #12
lagomorph777 Sep 14 #21
Jarqui Sep 14 #6
lagomorph777 Sep 14 #22
Jarqui Sep 14 #23
catbyte Sep 14 #52
revmclaren Sep 14 #55
catbyte Sep 14 #56
RDANGELO Sep 14 #8
marylandblue Sep 14 #10
FSogol Sep 14 #11
Merlot Sep 14 #17
ksoze Sep 14 #13
Cognitive_Resonance Sep 14 #15
Merlot Sep 14 #16
LandOfHopeAndDreams Sep 14 #38
Bradshaw3 Sep 14 #19
ProfessorGAC Sep 14 #24
Hortensis Sep 14 #28
Adrahil Sep 14 #20
lagomorph777 Sep 14 #25
Adrahil Sep 14 #27
lagomorph777 Sep 14 #29
Adrahil Sep 14 #34
Saboburns Sep 14 #26
lagomorph777 Sep 14 #30
Adrahil Sep 14 #31
MaryMagdaline Sep 14 #36
rzemanfl Sep 14 #37
WhiskeyGrinder Sep 14 #32
Loge23 Sep 14 #43
Caliman73 Sep 14 #44
lancelyons Sep 14 #33
shanny Sep 14 #35
bigtree Sep 14 #39
scheming daemons Sep 14 #40
LandOfHopeAndDreams Sep 14 #41
Cartoonist Sep 14 #42
sarisataka Sep 14 #45
lame54 Sep 14 #46
Bradshaw3 Sep 14 #47
Loki Liesmith Sep 14 #48
Doodley Sep 14 #49
Thrill Sep 14 #50
The Velveteen Ocelot Sep 14 #51
Cognitive_Resonance Sep 14 #53
haele Sep 14 #54
lame54 Sep 14 #57
Dyedinthewoolliberal Sep 14 #58

Response to scheming daemons (Original post)

Fri Sep 14, 2018, 10:09 AM

1. Cable news reporting that the 'cooperation' angle should be announced at 11a

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Response to scheming daemons (Original post)

Fri Sep 14, 2018, 10:10 AM

2. I agree that is is very bad news.

Why is Mueller doing this, is what I want to know? It's the first thing he's done that doesn't make sense to me.

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Response to lark (Reply #2)

Fri Sep 14, 2018, 10:36 AM

18. Mueller isn't going to care about anything

other than the cases in front of him, not taking down Trump.

Plus, Manafort pleading guilty just reinforces that this isn't a "witch hunt."

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Response to scheming daemons (Original post)

Fri Sep 14, 2018, 10:10 AM

3. Mueller has done these things before

so, I trust he knows what he is doing

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Response to scheming daemons (Original post)

Fri Sep 14, 2018, 10:11 AM

4. You know what doesn't happen with a Pardon?

Return of seized assets. To the tune of $46 million.

Also, there is a good chance NY will pick up some state charges based on the evidence.

Finally, if Trump does pardon Manafraud, and Mueller has Trump as a co-conspirator, there is a good chance that pardon can be challenged. Yes, I know, SCOTUS and all, but still there is a chance.

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Response to berni_mccoy (Reply #4)

Fri Sep 14, 2018, 10:22 AM

14. That's not quite true

It depends on whether the seized assets have been sold or paid into the Treasury or not.

If not... then a pardon actually does restore the seized assets.

Finally, if Trump does pardon Manafraud, and Mueller has Trump as a co-conspirator, there is a good chance that pardon can be challenged.

Mueller can't challenge a pardon. What he could do is report on the conflict and allow the US House to consider it for possible impeachment.

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Response to scheming daemons (Original post)

Fri Sep 14, 2018, 10:12 AM

5. You are 100% wrong

and has NOT agreed to a cooperation


We DO NOT YET KNOW what is in the agreement. We will know once it is published.

Take this garbage thread down!

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Response to manor321 (Reply #5)

Fri Sep 14, 2018, 10:13 AM

7. +1

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Response to manor321 (Reply #5)

Fri Sep 14, 2018, 10:15 AM

9. Agreed

Some people just want to jump to conclusions on little information. Sad.

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Response to manor321 (Reply #5)

Fri Sep 14, 2018, 10:19 AM

12. Even if he doesn't cooperate he still has to allocute

Cohen's allocation established a direct charge of obstruction

Manafort will have to testify in court to any charge he pleads guilty to. No 5th amendment right attachesvif you are already guilty

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Response to grantcart (Reply #12)

Fri Sep 14, 2018, 10:38 AM

21. Will Manafort point to Trump as co-conspirator on any charges, as Coehn did?

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Response to scheming daemons (Original post)

Fri Sep 14, 2018, 10:13 AM

6. The State can still nail him on tax evasion for example

Trump cannot pardon state crimes.

The disappointment is that he didn't flip because that would probably have finished Trump

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Response to Jarqui (Reply #6)

Fri Sep 14, 2018, 10:39 AM

22. We have no idea whether Manafort has flipped. Film at 11.

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Response to lagomorph777 (Reply #22)

Fri Sep 14, 2018, 10:41 AM

23. There is nothing in the news to indicate he has

there seem to be reports of documents related to what is to be presented to support some media opinions that he hasn't flipped ...

but you're right in that we'll find out for sure today in court.

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Response to Jarqui (Reply #6)

Fri Sep 14, 2018, 12:31 PM

52. New York still has that "Double Jeopardy" loophole in place. If a person is pardoned for

federal crimes then they can't be prosecuted for state crimes.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/04/schneiderman-double-jeopardy/558389/

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Response to catbyte (Reply #52)

Fri Sep 14, 2018, 02:30 PM

55. State tax evasion charges are not part

of any Federal charges so a pardon on Federal tax evasion will not trigger double jeopardy. He can still go down for any and all State charges.

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Response to revmclaren (Reply #55)

Fri Sep 14, 2018, 04:40 PM

56. I don't think so. Check this out:

Underwood's press release links to an April 18 letter in which her predecessor, Eric Schneiderman, a prominent Trump antagonist, lays out the case for closing this loophole:

The problem arises under Article 40 of the Criminal Procedure Law. Under that law, jeopardy attaches when a defendant pleads guilty, or, if the defendant proceeds to a jury trial, the moment the jury is sworn. If any of those steps occur in a federal prosecution, then a subsequent prosecution for state crimes "based upon the same act or criminal transaction" cannot proceed, unless an exception applies. New York's law provides exceptions when a court nullifies a prior criminal proceeding (such as when an appeals court vacates a conviction), or even when a federal court overturns a federal conviction because the prosecution failed to establish an element of the crime that is not an element of the New York crime. But there is no parallel exception for when the President effectively nullifies a federal criminal prosecution via pardon.

Thus, if a federal defendant pleads guilty to a federal crime, or if a jury is sworn in a federal criminal trial against that defendant, and then the President pardons that individual, this New York statute could be invoked to argue that a subsequent state prosecution is barred. Simply put, a defendant pardoned by the President for a serious federal crime could be freed from all accountability under federal and state criminal law, even though the President has no authority under the U.S. Constitution to pardon state crimes.

https://reason.com/blog/2018/06/01/ny-attorney-general-close-the-double-jeo

I don't like Reason Magazine, but this article spells out the rule very well.

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Response to scheming daemons (Original post)

Fri Sep 14, 2018, 10:14 AM

8. If Trump pardons Manefort, it will be bad for the Republican Party.

It still won't save Trump or We Manefort from state charges. Who knows what information Mueller already has on Trump.

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Response to scheming daemons (Original post)

Fri Sep 14, 2018, 10:17 AM

10. One thing Mueller almost certainly will not give up

The right to prosecute for future, campaign-related crimes. The way things are now, Manafort will have that over his head, and political speaking, Trump can't pardon Manafort for a campaign-related collusion that Trump says never happened anyway.

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Response to scheming daemons (Original post)

Fri Sep 14, 2018, 10:18 AM

11. Exactly. This along with Lindsey Graham's actions on asking the DOJ to investigate the Democrats

shows that the GOP believe they will survive the accusations of colluding with the Russians and that they continue their business (grifting) as usual.

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Response to FSogol (Reply #11)

Fri Sep 14, 2018, 10:35 AM

17. gop is always on the offensive (and always ofensive...)

I wouldn't read to much into DOJ investigating dems request.

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Response to scheming daemons (Original post)

Fri Sep 14, 2018, 10:20 AM

13. Mueller's team would know this. They are smarter than him and his sugar daddy

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Response to scheming daemons (Original post)

Fri Sep 14, 2018, 10:32 AM

15. Let it play out. We don't have the full picture. nt

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Response to scheming daemons (Original post)

Fri Sep 14, 2018, 10:34 AM

16. If he gets a pardon he can't plead the 5th in any future testimony.

So he either talks or goes to jail for obstruction.

A pardon isn't a blanket pardon for life or all crimes.

That being said, I fully expect trumfpt to pardon manifort. It will get both of them into deeper trouble.

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Response to Merlot (Reply #16)

Fri Sep 14, 2018, 11:06 AM

38. Not If His Sentence Is Commuted

Then the convictions would stand, but he would not have to serve out his sentences.

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Response to scheming daemons (Original post)

Fri Sep 14, 2018, 10:37 AM

19. Mueller wouldn't do this without getting something

Even if Manafort is pardoned Mueller would still have whatever info he got from him to use against drumpf. Mueller isn't making a deal with nothing in return. People who think that haven't been paying attention to what he has done up to now.

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Response to Bradshaw3 (Reply #19)

Fri Sep 14, 2018, 10:43 AM

24. Agreed

He's already convicted. Why would a prosecutor agree to a plea deal when a jury has already said the perp is guilty? The only logical explanation seems to be that the prosecutor is getting something he/she don't already have.

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Response to Bradshaw3 (Reply #19)

Fri Sep 14, 2018, 10:45 AM

28. Agree with you, Merlot, and all the others who

believe Mueller knows what he's doing. Nothing of significance was sacrificed in this plea deal.

Also, eyes on the prize? It's not about Manafort.

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Response to scheming daemons (Original post)

Fri Sep 14, 2018, 10:38 AM

20. Just heard he is pleading to just two counts? NT

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Response to Adrahil (Reply #20)

Fri Sep 14, 2018, 10:43 AM

25. All just rumors, until the hearing; which I believe is at 11:00

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Response to lagomorph777 (Reply #25)

Fri Sep 14, 2018, 10:44 AM

27. Not sure this one is a rumor... announcer said it came from...

a statement from Mueller's office.

What's unknown is if there is any kind of cooperation agreement.

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Response to Adrahil (Reply #27)

Fri Sep 14, 2018, 10:45 AM

29. Small list of charges would lean more toward cooperation.

Mueller doesn't let people off the hook without something in return.

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Response to lagomorph777 (Reply #29)

Fri Sep 14, 2018, 10:53 AM

34. I'd agree..... unless...

Mueller believes Trump will pardon Manafort and he wants to get his over with.

I hope you are right.

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Response to scheming daemons (Original post)

Fri Sep 14, 2018, 10:44 AM

26. C'mon man

Do you think Mueller would agree to any plea deal with an already CONVICTED Felon facing 75 years AND ADD 2 CHARGES TODAY CONSPIRACY AGAINST THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA AND OBSTRUCTION OF JUSTICE if he wasn't getting every damn thing wants?!?

C'mon man.

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Response to Saboburns (Reply #26)

Fri Sep 14, 2018, 10:46 AM

30. Exactly! Mueller is nobody's pushover.

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Response to Saboburns (Reply #26)

Fri Sep 14, 2018, 10:46 AM

31. I hope so, but....

We've had the rug pulled from under us too many times.

Also, one analyst I heard said that if Mueller believes Trump will pardon Manafort, he might not want to commit so many resources to a trial that is not likely to add THAT much more time to Manafort's sentence than the two he's pleading to.

But here's hoping.

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Response to Adrahil (Reply #31)

Fri Sep 14, 2018, 11:03 AM

36. Really

He's already got a conviction. If he gets a guilty plea and does not have to use several of his best prosecutors in another trial, he may want to conserve resources. The pardon could come from Trump with or without a plea deal in this case, with or without a conviction in this case. Why risk weeks of trial and a possible (remotely possible) loss (loss would include hung jury, in my opinion)?

A guilty plea adds credibility to the entire investigation, making it publicly harder for Trump and Repugs to shut down the investigation. Mueller cannot control pardon power of president. A conviction by plea is still a conviction.

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Response to Adrahil (Reply #31)

Fri Sep 14, 2018, 11:05 AM

37. He's 69 years old. More time is sort of nonsensical. Drumpf will pardon him anyway. n/t

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Response to scheming daemons (Original post)

Fri Sep 14, 2018, 10:49 AM

32. Now is a good time for people to remind themselves that putting all their hopes in Mueller to

change what's going on around us is a fool's errand.

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Response to WhiskeyGrinder (Reply #32)

Fri Sep 14, 2018, 11:25 AM

43. Yes this.

Remember Fitzmas?
It's here again. Nothing will change regardless of Mueller's findings.
It's on us, the people. If we don't get moving, vote, protest, fight - we'll just watch the destruction of our country continue.
First opportunity is in November. If we flip the House, we'll have some momentum and hope again.
Fight back - a bully backs off when we confront them - and the right are all bullies.

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Response to WhiskeyGrinder (Reply #32)

Fri Sep 14, 2018, 11:27 AM

44. There is a difference.

There is a middle ground between Mueller will solve all of the country's problems and Mueller just ended the hopes of the United States by making a plea deal with Manafort.

That middle is that Mueller likely knows what he is doing and is continuing on the path that he has been following the last 18 months, going where the evidence leads him.

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Response to scheming daemons (Original post)

Fri Sep 14, 2018, 10:50 AM

33. I think Mueller and his team know that Trump is looking to Pardon Manafort

I think Mueller and his team know that Trump is looking to Pardon Manafort.

I cant imagine Mueller not getting something in return. Maybe some state charge is added which he cant be pardoned for.

Just saving the trial time and money is not helping his entire investigation.

This would be a Mueller mistake if that is true. Confidence in Mueller from democrats might fall if this is the case.

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Response to scheming daemons (Original post)

Fri Sep 14, 2018, 11:00 AM

35. Not necessarily.

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/08/paul-manafort-will-likely-go-to-jail-if-trump-pardons-him-thanks-to-a-lone-holdout-juror.html

Manafort is open to charges in numerous states, including CA, IL, and NY. In the face of a presidential pardon I'm betting at least one AG would be more than happy to pick up the slack.

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Response to scheming daemons (Original post)

Fri Sep 14, 2018, 11:06 AM

39. a pardon is esentially an admission of guilt

...he can then be compelled to testify in other trials without any fith amendment protections.

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Response to bigtree (Reply #39)

Fri Sep 14, 2018, 11:09 AM

40. I agree.... but he will have his freedom, and that sucks.

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Response to scheming daemons (Original post)

Fri Sep 14, 2018, 11:18 AM

41. Manafort Will Be Home In Time For Thanksgiving

There was a time where I would be disappointed and surprised by developments like this. Now, I sort of expect it, and realize things are the same as they ever were.

Like Charlie Sheen says.... LOSING!

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Response to scheming daemons (Original post)

Fri Sep 14, 2018, 11:20 AM

42. Manafort's testimony

I keep reading posts saying once Manafort is pardoned he will be compelled to testify. That he won't be able to plead the 5th. So what?

If he doesn't want to answer a question, all he has to say is, "I don't remember. "

Sessions used that answer when he was grilled about his Russian contact. And this was less than a year after the event.

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Response to scheming daemons (Original post)

Fri Sep 14, 2018, 11:33 AM

45. Lucy pulls the football again

Anyone surprised?

Prediction- pleads guilty, gets a slap on the wrist, no need to pardon so he never has to testify

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Response to scheming daemons (Original post)

Fri Sep 14, 2018, 11:34 AM

46. He is talking to Mueller

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Response to scheming daemons (Original post)

Fri Sep 14, 2018, 11:56 AM

47. No it is good news; just admit it

This should be a reminder to posters not to jump the gun, especially with doom and gloom posts. As one prosecutor just said, this is bad news for drumpf because Manafort will be giving firsthand info on a criminal (drumpf) who doesn't use email or texts that could incriminate him.

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Response to scheming daemons (Original post)

Fri Sep 14, 2018, 11:56 AM

48. Maybe update title

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Response to scheming daemons (Original post)

Fri Sep 14, 2018, 11:57 AM

49. The political fallout and bad press would precipitate the end of Trump"s presidency and that

Will be after the GOP gets a good kicking in the mid-terms.

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Response to scheming daemons (Original post)

Fri Sep 14, 2018, 11:59 AM

50. A pardon will keep him from jail. But it won't do anything

When the govt gets all your money and property. So Manafort will cooperate, so he’ll still be rich when this is finished.

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Response to scheming daemons (Original post)

Fri Sep 14, 2018, 12:02 PM

51. Oh, ye of little faith.

He flipped. Don't doubt Bob Mueller.

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Response to scheming daemons (Original post)

Fri Sep 14, 2018, 01:56 PM

53. I would think with cooperation provisions that a pardon would be a clear count of obstruction. nt

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Response to scheming daemons (Original post)

Fri Sep 14, 2018, 02:01 PM

54. Cooperating with Mueller might help in in plea deals with the States who are lining up.

Especially since Mueller is sharing his evidence with the various State AGs, who have not only Manafort in their sights, but a lot of other suspects - especially local Mobs and local corruption - on their radars to deal with that might not be looking at Federal charges.

And Manafort can't be pardoned for State crimes. So cooperating with Mueller might be a signal that he will also cooperate with them.

Haele

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Response to scheming daemons (Original post)

Fri Sep 14, 2018, 04:41 PM

57. I have no idea where you are coming from...

this is amazing news

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Response to scheming daemons (Original post)

Fri Sep 14, 2018, 09:38 PM

58. If he isn't cooperating

Then why would they offer him a deal?

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