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Sun Sep 9, 2018, 11:06 PM

Storm the size of North Carolina when it arrives

Eric Holthaus @EricHolthaus
OK you guys, my intention is not to scare anyone with this message.

But Hurricane #Florence—the storm bound for North Carolina—is going to be about the size of North Carolina when it arrives.

This is what it will look like, according to the latest high-res model prediction:






twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/1038978626291679237


48 replies, 3287 views

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Arrow 48 replies Author Time Post
Reply Storm the size of North Carolina when it arrives (Original post)
bigtree Sep 9 OP
NRaleighLiberal Sep 9 #1
Scurrilous Sep 9 #2
underpants Sep 10 #26
PJMcK Sep 10 #35
underpants Sep 10 #36
calimary Sep 9 #4
bigtree Sep 10 #7
KY_EnviroGuy Sep 10 #14
Lochloosa Sep 10 #39
KY_EnviroGuy Sep 10 #42
malaise Sep 10 #23
Hortensis Sep 10 #34
Hermit-The-Prog Sep 10 #38
pangaia Sep 9 #3
B2G Sep 9 #5
nolabear Sep 9 #6
bigtree Sep 10 #8
nolabear Sep 10 #12
Croney Sep 10 #32
Lochloosa Sep 10 #40
nolabear Sep 10 #43
OxQQme Sep 10 #9
bigtree Sep 10 #16
joshcryer Sep 10 #18
Sherman A1 Sep 10 #21
rusty quoin Sep 10 #10
JHan Sep 10 #11
Jersey Devil Sep 10 #13
Scurrilous Sep 10 #17
dsc Sep 10 #22
malaise Sep 10 #24
sfwriter Sep 10 #15
unc70 Sep 10 #19
Petosky Stone Sep 10 #20
OneGrassRoot Sep 10 #37
dembotoz Sep 10 #25
unc70 Sep 10 #31
dembotoz Sep 10 #33
LanternWaste Sep 10 #41
PearliePoo2 Sep 10 #27
DFW Sep 10 #28
liberal N proud Sep 10 #30
duforsure Sep 10 #29
dweller Sep 10 #44
bigtree Sep 11 #45
dweller Sep 11 #46
OxQQme Sep 12 #47
Tipperary Sep 12 #48

Response to bigtree (Original post)

Sun Sep 9, 2018, 11:15 PM

1. went through Fran here in Raleigh 22 years ago - lost over 100 trees....watching this very

closely. Hoping it decides to take a detour, somehow, away from land.

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Response to Scurrilous (Reply #2)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 06:20 AM

26. Good bye OBX

Yikes.

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Response to underpants (Reply #26)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 08:18 AM

35. Yeah

We have a vacation house on Ocracoke Island. It's rented for the week but we'll see if they evacuate the island.

Sadly, there's not much we can do about it. The house is 8 feet above the ground and it was solidly built by our neighbor, a local who knows how bad the storms can be. We'll just have to hope for the best.

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Response to PJMcK (Reply #35)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 08:20 AM

36. Good luck

There's already a 10 foot cliff somewhere (heard the story months ago) from erosion.

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Reply #1)

Sun Sep 9, 2018, 11:43 PM

4. Oy - take cover and be careful! Got your supplies just in case?

Stay safe, and please report in about it from time to time, so we know you’re okay. Otherwise, we’re gonna worry.

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Reply #1)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 12:35 AM

7. you had that smaller one hit right before that

...and Fran came ashore as a 3.

I think Edouard messed with it a bit before it came in.

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Reply #1)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 01:05 AM

14. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but...

Isn't flooding in the low country the greatest danger to life in east NC and SC? I stayed near Georgetown, SC for a spell around 1980 and the land is very flat with rivers all over. They spoke a lot about a big one, I think Hurricane Hugo. One hit in the years after I left and rearranged my beloved Pawley's Island south of Myrtle.

Those areas in general are very poor after one goes inland a few miles and little attention is paid to those folks in a disaster. In the area where I stayed, I would guess 80% of the people lived in house trailers on private land.

Best wishes to you from KY through this trying time and please keep us posted......

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Response to KY_EnviroGuy (Reply #14)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 04:03 PM

39. Water is always what kills you in a Hurricane. You can survive the wind, but not the water.

Native Floridian. I wouldn't be any where near this one.

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Response to Lochloosa (Reply #39)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 04:16 PM

42. OMG, I can remember some of the evacuations out of Florida and

the trauma of that traffic.

Still feel the most sorrow for those who can't afford to or are not physically able to evacuate, and there will be many of those with Florence.

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Reply #1)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 05:18 AM

23. Take care

Florence is scary.

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Reply #1)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 08:17 AM

34. Ouch. Between weakened trees from climate change

and last big one 22 years ago, guessing you could possibly lose a bunch again.

When Irma reached north Georgia as a glancing tropical storm around this time last year, the damage was rather amazing, with thousands of trees down and tens of thousands without power in our county alone. Including us. Three trees from our woods fell on the road, a few others lost. The county had to do triage so merely cut a gap through a large oak blocking the road into our little neighborhood and moved on. But we knew it would have to be that way and we and our neighbors had already been out with chainsaws clearing the other trees blocking our roads and driveways.

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Reply #1)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 09:25 AM

38. survive, then sell the lumber

Hang on.

After it's over, resist the temptation to just cut those trees up into firewood chunks. There are portable sawmill operators all over that area. You may recover some of your loss. (see forestryforum.com ).

Things get crazy and scary around here when we get 60 - 70 mph straight line winds. I'd be -elsewhere- in the face of a storm like that one is predicted to be.

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Response to bigtree (Original post)

Sun Sep 9, 2018, 11:41 PM

3. That looks a lot bigger than NC.

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Response to bigtree (Original post)

Sun Sep 9, 2018, 11:46 PM

5. That's one model out of many.

 

Prepare for sure but look to the NHC for the latest info. We currently currently don't know exact path or intensity at landfall.

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Response to bigtree (Original post)

Sun Sep 9, 2018, 11:52 PM

6. My husband's family and a lot of friends are in NC.

Only a couple are on the coast and I’m sure they’ll go inland, but it sounds like they’re all in for a ride. I love those barrier islands. I don’t know which of us is going to go first but I wouldn’t give either of us more than thirty.

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Response to nolabear (Reply #6)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 12:37 AM

8. South Carolina

...is where my sister-in law and her daughter lives.

Right near Myrtle Beach. She's worried about flooding (among other things).

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Response to bigtree (Reply #8)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 12:56 AM

12. I wish her and hers the best. I went through some corkers.

Camille and Betsy, and myboeople suffered Katrina. They will make philosophers of you for sure.

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Response to nolabear (Reply #12)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 07:11 AM

32. I remember Betsy well.

I had a new baby and we'd bought a new house in Terrytown, a cookie-cutter low-end bungalow. In a week without power, my husband and his friends went out fishing and brought home giant redfish that they laid out on the lawn, so neighbors could take and grill. We had it easy. Once power was restored, the TV showed cars during the storm, floating with people inside.

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Response to nolabear (Reply #12)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 04:04 PM

40. Camille? You have my respect...

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Response to Lochloosa (Reply #40)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 04:32 PM

43. Yeah. I was fourteen. It wasn't something to go through.

We actually got out just ahead of it but my grandfather stayed and was lucky to survive. We were without power for weeks. Talk about living cheek by jowl and being afraid of the snakes that were EVERYWHERE. Oof. We were lucky really. Didn’t lose much. Lots lost everything.

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Response to bigtree (Original post)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 12:38 AM

9. Interactive weather map

https://www.windy.com/?32.361,-82.881,4

In windy, choose 'wind' from the upper right vertical menu bar.
In the lower menu, sequentially choose Monday/Tues/Wed/etc and that twister's moving fast.

'Grab' and 'zoom' if you choose.

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Response to OxQQme (Reply #9)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 01:09 AM

16. comes right ashore (NC) on that model

...early Thursday morning.

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Response to OxQQme (Reply #9)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 01:45 AM

18. The stall scenario is the worst case.

While the full push scenario would be devastating to structures, 30+ inches of rain would completely flood out entire towns, many many towns.

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Response to OxQQme (Reply #9)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 04:20 AM

21. Thanks for posting

a very interesting map. I will book mark the webpage.

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Response to bigtree (Original post)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 12:51 AM

10. I'm in Richmond. My wife flies home from Nashville on Friday.

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Response to bigtree (Original post)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 12:54 AM

11. Fuck. That's massive.

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Response to bigtree (Original post)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 12:57 AM

13. I'm about 50 miles east of Raleigh

in Goldsboro, NC, home of Seymour Johnson Air Force Base. My daughter and her AF hubby live here also. Whenever there is the threat of a hurricane or tropical storm the Air Force flies all of its F-15 fighters out of the area and the families are left behind in what they call "Operation Abandon Your Family." Just an interesting anecdote about the lives of military families.

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Response to Jersey Devil (Reply #13)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 01:36 AM

17. Hurricane Andrew destroyed Homestead AFB in '92.



Not all the F-16's made it out in time.

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Response to Jersey Devil (Reply #13)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 05:17 AM

22. same here

I fear another matthew

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Response to dsc (Reply #22)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 05:22 AM

24. This will be far worse than Matthew

because of the wind factor

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Response to bigtree (Original post)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 01:07 AM

15. Trump had aids buy paper towels, so the government is ready.

I shouldn't joke. I have a feeling this will not go well.

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Response to bigtree (Original post)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 02:00 AM

19. Florence could be combo of Fran and Floyd

Fran brought hurricane winds inland past Raleigh, Durham, Greensboro; Floyd flooded everything east of Raleigh -- east of I-95 was unreachable by road for days, many major roads flooded for weeks. I-40 closed inland from Wilmington, US-70 closed at Goldsboro and Kinston, ...

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Response to bigtree (Original post)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 02:45 AM

20. Fran was widely predicted to hit land and then skirt up the coast,

but she didn't read the forecasts!

It hit us (in Cary) as a Cat 1. Most weren't prepared.

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Response to Petosky Stone (Reply #20)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 08:25 AM

37. Hi, Neighbor...

I'm in that same area. Lived through Fran too. Reeeeally hoping Florence jogs north against all odds.

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Response to bigtree (Original post)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 06:18 AM

25. Bet they get power restored faster than Puerto Rico

No matter how large the storm

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Response to dembotoz (Reply #25)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 07:02 AM

31. Faster than PR, but not fast

It took a long time to restore power in N.C. after Fran (and Floyd). 10-20 days in areas far inland like Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill areas, months for some areas near and along the coast. Lots of little tornadoes and straight line winds brought trees down across nearly every power line, flooding took out much of the rest and maybe washed it away.

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Response to unc70 (Reply #31)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 07:56 AM

33. More than a year and still counting

Last edited Mon Sep 10, 2018, 09:20 AM - Edit history (1)

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Response to unc70 (Reply #31)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 04:04 PM

41. Three weeks is very fast compared to eleven months.

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Response to bigtree (Original post)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 06:29 AM

27. No way I would ride this monster out. If the winds don't get you the massive flooding will.


They are predicting it is going to stall out and dump huge amounts of rain. The rivers and streams won't be able to cope.

I would load up my animals, make sure my insurance is paid up and head west! Even if I had to borrow money to do it.

This thing is going to be a killer.


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Response to bigtree (Original post)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 06:34 AM

28. I hope Charleston, SC is still there in December

My wife and I spend New Year's there.

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Response to DFW (Reply #28)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 06:55 AM

30. Hope so too

We love Charleston too just spent Sunday there

We are outside the come here in Hilton Head as of last night.

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Response to bigtree (Original post)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 06:34 AM

29. Be safe and aware of what's going on

After seeing what Harvey did to us , we left, we was thankful we got out , and early.

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Response to bigtree (Original post)

Mon Sep 10, 2018, 09:32 PM

44. it just gets worse ...

it's raining already and predicted to everyday this week before florence gets here, saturating the ground and when the winds hit 😩 the trees will come down, latest projection shows it right over my area (chapel hill) by Friday nite, and dumping 7-10" + rain over the weekend resulting in widespread flooding...

does not look good ☹️ ... and all area stores already out of water, they say more is coming but I can't camp out waiting, it will be grabbed quickly I'm sure

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Response to dweller (Reply #44)

Tue Sep 11, 2018, 06:43 AM

45. I saw the lines there

...essentially the parking lot full of shoppers with carts.

SiL says SC is almost impossible to buy water too.

Stay safe! Good luck with supplies.

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Response to bigtree (Reply #45)

Tue Sep 11, 2018, 07:41 AM

46. scored water this morning

got up at 430, and hit the local grocery, picked up plenty and it was going fast... every shopper had a cart full
so I'm set, I hope ...

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Response to bigtree (Original post)

Wed Sep 12, 2018, 08:53 AM

47. Interactive Barometric Pressure map

https://www.windy.com/-Show-add-more-layers/overlays?pressure,12.983,-55.371,3

While in 'windy', one can even choose to see real-time lightning strikes.
Quite amazing, to these 78 year old eyes, to look down upon the world in this optional fashion.

As The World Turns

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Response to OxQQme (Reply #47)

Wed Sep 12, 2018, 09:30 AM

48. Very cool. Thanks for posting!

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