HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Main » General Discussion (Forum) » 2017-2018 federal special...

Tue Aug 7, 2018, 10:24 PM

2017-2018 federal special election results as compared to the seat's partisan lean:




2017-2018 federal special election results as compared to the seat's partisan lean:

#CA34 D+18
#KS04 D+23
#MTAL D+16
#GA06 D+6
#SC05 D+16
#UT03 D+3
#ALSen D+31
#PA18 D+22
#AZ08 D+20
#TX27 D+5
#OH12 D+13 (est.)

2 replies, 596 views

Reply to this thread

Back to top Alert abuse

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 2 replies Author Time Post
Reply 2017-2018 federal special election results as compared to the seat's partisan lean: (Original post)
octoberlib Aug 2018 OP
Awsi Dooger Aug 2018 #1
TheRealNorth Aug 2018 #2

Response to octoberlib (Original post)

Tue Aug 7, 2018, 10:41 PM

1. Can't expect to match that pace when incumbents are involved

Ousting incumbents is an entirely different ball game than a special election. A strategist on CNN tonight has been making that point repeatedly but has been shouted down. However, he is absolutely correct.

That's why it's not a perfect transfer to take the average gap and drop it on every November race. Situational influence is never emphasized enough.

Ideally Trump will drop a point or two in approval rating prior to November, opening up opportunity in a handful of additional races. I don't want to be depending on ousting entrenched incumbents.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to octoberlib (Original post)

Tue Aug 7, 2018, 11:25 PM

2. Turnout is everything

Republicans are not going to stay home in November. They will come up with something before then to get them fired up.

Turnout Dems + sway independents.

If I were Dem strategisit, I might also consider taking Russians propaganda hits on Dems and tying the Republican candidates to them.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink

Reply to this thread