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Thu Jul 26, 2018, 12:20 AM

WV-SEN: Sabato moves the race from Tossup to Lean Democrat

Now, having just three nonpartisan surveys in about three months is certainly not ideal when it comes to analyzing data, and especially with just one live-phone poll (Monmouth). Yet some campaign developments, in conjunction with these surveys, supply further evidence that Manchin holds an edge in the contest. It is possible — though unclear how probable — that Blankenship will make the general election ballot as the Constitution Party nominee. A month ago, we examined Blankenship and how his third-party (or write-in) candidacy might impact the race. Should he contest the election, it’s unclear how much more Blankenship might hurt Morrisey than Manchin — Blankenship’s strongest areas in the May 8 primary actually overlap with Manchin’s (and other Mountain State Democrats’) traditional stronghold in southern West Virginia’s Third Congressional District. Still, Republicans would prefer Blankenship, a former GOP candidate, to not make the ballot. The former coal executive would surely serve as a distraction for Morrisey as the Republican nominee focuses his attacks on Manchin. As it is, Morrisey may find himself receiving less support from outside Republican groups than he expected. On Thursday, news broke that One Nation, a notable conservative nonprofit aligned with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), had decided to cancel much of a $750,000 TV and radio ad campaign against Manchin while continuing its efforts in four other competitive Senate contests. Whether this is a one-off exit remains to be seen, but it is worrisome for Morrisey that an outside Republican group halted attack ads against ostensibly one of the most endangered Democratic incumbents in the country. The West Virginia race remains very competitive, but it seems that Manchin now has at least a slight edge.

The new rating in the Mountain State means that we now favor Democrats to some extent in 22 of the 26 seats that they are defending in 2018. The other four Democratic-held seats in Florida, Indiana, Missouri, and North Dakota are all Toss-up races. Republicans are favored to some degree in seven of the nine seats they are defending, with Toss-up contests in GOP-held Arizona and Nevada. Overall, Republicans hold a slim 51-49 advantage in Congress’ upper chamber and it remains their chamber to lose. For Democrats to reverse the status quo and win their own 51-49 majority, they will likely need to retain every seat they currently control while picking up the open seat in Arizona and defeating Sen. Dean Heller (R-NV) in the Silver State (an even 50-50 split would allow the GOP to retain power via Vice President Mike Pence). It is possible that Democrats could win the open-seat race in Tennessee, where ex-Gov. Phil Bredesen (D) has led most polls against Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R, TN-7). However, the Volunteer State is a very conservative place these days and may prove to be a reach for Democrats by November. But even if Bredesen were to win while Democrats gained the two Toss-up races out west, the Democrats could still only afford to lose one of their most endangered seats (the toss-up races mentioned above plus Montana and West Virginia) and win a majority. While history is on the Democrats’ side — incumbents from the non-presidential party rarely lose in midterm cycles — there are five Democrats seeking reelection in states that President Donald Trump won by at least 18 points in 2016. That is a lot of red turf to defend, and Florida has become another serious battleground via Gov. Rick Scott’s (R) resurgent popularity and gigantic war chest against Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL).

The point is, Democrats need to either sweep all the Toss-ups to win a slender majority or pull off an upset in another state (like Tennessee). While either scenario could happen — for example, Democrats now hold around a seven-to-eight point lead in the generic ballot, suggesting a friendly environment — Republicans simply have a better chance of maintaining control of the Senate in 2018. Although the race for the House now tilts very slightly toward the Democrats, the GOP remains favored to retain the Senate.



http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/mountain-state-manchin-ations/

17 replies, 3737 views

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Thu Jul 26, 2018, 06:39 AM

1. democrats are going to win the senate elections in Nevada, Tennesee and Arizona with outside

chance in Texas

The only democrat who might lose is in Missouri and even there, Claire may pull it out...

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Response to beachbum bob (Reply #1)

Thu Jul 26, 2018, 06:42 AM

2. I'm a bit concerned about Florida.

 

Nelson really needs to win.

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Response to NCTraveler (Reply #2)

Thu Jul 26, 2018, 07:42 AM

6. nelson is holding a 4pt lead, everyone in florida knows him and Scott....and Scott will have to

defend trump's anti-immigration polices in a state filled with immigrants, Scott has to defend trump's pisspoor response to Puerto Rico's hurricane recovery with a state adding more Puerto Rican residents who can vote in florida's elections. Scott has to defend the republicans cuts to Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid in a state dominated with senior voters, who vote.

Its not a good place to be if you are Scott

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Response to beachbum bob (Reply #6)

Thu Jul 26, 2018, 08:04 AM

7. I don't think Scott has to defend any of those.

 

He is a very interesting campaigner.

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Response to NCTraveler (Reply #7)

Thu Jul 26, 2018, 08:28 AM

8. Scott will have to defend as Nelson will make sure of it. Afterall they are republican issues and

polices.

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Response to beachbum bob (Reply #8)

Thu Jul 26, 2018, 11:11 PM

11. The ads I've seen for Nelson

go after Scott about health care.

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Response to beachbum bob (Reply #1)

Fri Jul 27, 2018, 07:11 AM

13. Bredesen has an excellent chance . . .

down here in Tennessee. He's a known quantity (former 2-term Governor) and widely liked and respected by Dems and Republicans.

Marsha Blackburn is a true Trump hugger, a Tea Party type who has a lot of 'splaining to do in respect to her association with Torshin, the Russian handler of recently indicted Maria Butina and a NRA money man. The fact that Torshin was a Russian 'election observer' in Nashville in 2012 seems like something out of a damn novel.

Blackburn has been sidestepping questions about her association with the Torshin/NRA story. She won't be able to avoid these questions for the entire election season. As the story on Trump continues to heat up, the Russian connection will likely become increasingly toxic. The way Blackburn is herself.

I have a good feeling about our chances in this neck of the woods

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Response to peggysue2 (Reply #13)

Tue Jul 31, 2018, 04:56 AM

16. Indeed. It's honestly the one I am most excited about. 😊 nt

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Thu Jul 26, 2018, 07:07 AM

3. GOTV is the key. Always has been. Always will be

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Thu Jul 26, 2018, 07:10 AM

4. Manchin is formidable in that state

And a Blankenship candidacy would be a God-send. But he's still on my list to send a few bucks to in the fall. Can't lose that seat.

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Response to Recursion (Reply #4)

Thu Jul 26, 2018, 07:34 AM

5. Same. If Blankenship even pulled 3 percent of the final vote, that's taking it away from Morrisey.

And in a really close election, that could swing it.

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Response to Recursion (Reply #4)

Thu Jul 26, 2018, 11:28 AM

9. Blankenship will not be running.

The West Virginia Secretary of State has denied Don Blankenship's request to run for U.S. Senate in the general election.

Secretary of State Mac Warner says that he will not approve the candidacy application filed by Don Blankenship, according to a news release. Warner notified Blankenship Thursday morning by letter of his decision.

The former coal operator filed Tuesday to run for U.S. Senate in the Constitution Party. Blankenship ran as a Republican in the May primary and lost to West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey.

"According to the plain language of the law, which controls my decision, a candidate who loses the Primary Election cannot use the nomination-certificate process to run another campaign in the General Election. Any other decision would be contrary to the law," Warner said.



http://www.wsaz.com/content/news/Don-Blankenship-plans-to-run-for-US-Senate-for-Constitution-Party-483206641.html


Blankenship says he will appeal, but I don't find it likely that he can do more than a write-in campaign.

That said, there are a ton of feel-good Manchin ads on locally. And only anti-Morrisey ads, pushing his lobbying efforts for opioid producers, and his stance against pre-existing conditions. I feel cautiously optimistic about this race.


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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Thu Jul 26, 2018, 01:17 PM

10. We win if we GOTV

We have to take Senate and House back, otherwise goodbye to American democracy

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Response to Dopers_Greed (Reply #10)

Tue Jul 31, 2018, 04:58 AM

17. To that end, we need to register as many voters as possible for extra cushion.

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Fri Jul 27, 2018, 05:59 AM

12. I'm not sure

I ever heard Sabato say anything truly positive about Democrats. I consider him a right-of-center source.

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Response to bucolic_frolic (Reply #12)

Mon Jul 30, 2018, 08:54 AM

15. He predicted Clinton beating Trump by over 100 electoral votes

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Mon Jul 30, 2018, 08:53 AM

14. So we have to sweep the 6 tossups

A lot to ask. Hope we can pull it off!

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