Americans' Certainty About Voting This Year Low

[struggle4progress]

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Fifty-six percent of U.S. adults are currently "absolutely certain" they will vote in the November elections for Congress. That's on the low side in Gallup's trend of final pre-election midterm polls since 1954 and is similar to the 58% recorded just before the 2014 midterms, which had the lowest turnout rate since 1942.

The overall percentage of U.S. adults describing themselves as absolutely certain to vote in a midterm election has ranged from as low as 54% right before the 1978 midterms to a high of 68% in both 2006 and 2010. Gallup has not routinely asked the question this soon in a midterm year, but in years for which early measures are available (1982, 1998, 2002 and 2010), adults' intention to vote changed little over the course of the campaign.

There is currently no difference in turnout intention by party: 65% of Republicans and 64% of Democrats say they are absolutely certain to vote. As is normal, independents are less certain of voting, at 45%.

Gallup also found parity between Republicans' and Democrats' certainty of voting in 2002, 2006 and 2014. In two of those years, 2002 and 2014, Republicans picked up seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, but 2006 was a year of big Democratic gains. Of the three midterm election years when Republicans had a slight edge on certainty to vote, the party performed very well in two (1994 and 2010) but not in the third (1998) ...

https://news.gallup.com/poll/235835/americans-certainty-voting-year-starting-low.aspx

[ck4829]

1. A couple numbers we need to get up

[Wounded Bear]

2. It's Gallup, so a bit suspect, but still worrisome...

[JoeOtterbein]

3. I just hope out votes are counted. We need to be ready to fight if we lose any seats

we were clearly ahead in the polls before the election. Just do what the GOP would do if we "just happen" to win a solid red seat when they were clearly ahead in the polls. Fight for our political lives and swear the vote was rigged if it looks like it was!

If we don't fight with all our might, we will have abandoned any hope for our future only because we were just plain lazy in 2018.

[JustAnotherGen]

4. This is good

Remember - the polls don't matter - on the street GOTV efforts are. I was not surprised to see the newly elected young Democratic leadership at an event last night. We can't trust the polls. I prefer negative for us - because those are the ones that will motivate people. Grab the precinct lists and start knocking and calling


This

By contrast, in both midterms held during Barack Obama's presidency, as well as in 2006 under George W. Bush -- all years in which the president's party lost House seats -- more voters said they would be sending a message against the president than for him. The 2002 elections were an exception when, with Bush's job approval rating exceeding 60% a year after 9/11, nearly twice as many voters planned to send a message to support rather than protest Bush. That year, Bush's Republican Party increased its share of congressional seats, a rare occurrence for the president's party in midterms.

Gallup is comparing against the normal - the abnormal.

They assume 45 fits in the Took an Oath Constitution model.

He doesn't.

This is an abnormal environment.

Be here now. Our precinct lists, our knocked on doors.