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Tue Jun 12, 2018, 10:37 PM

I have this theory.

Trump polarized America by appealing to a white Republican base. It won him the presidency.

Sanders is polarizing the Democratic party by appealing to a white Democratic base. But I don't think it will win him the presidency.

The reason I point this out is that it seems as though white people in both parties wanted a white male candidate to replace Obama.

Maybe it is subconscious, but it is something that I predicted about 3 years ago. That only a white male candidate could win in 2016.

I'm not sure what this means for the Democratic party as a whole, when there is so much division. Bernie supporters blame non-supporters, and non-supporters blame Bernie supporters. But whichever side you fall on, there is a gap. Two years ago it cost us the election. I hope we won't see it again.

We need a straight white male candidate to take on Trump. In 43 presidencies, straight white males have won. I'ts a reasonable strategy. Black and Latino people have shown that they will vote for a white male candidate. Women have shown that they will vote for a white male candidate. LGBTQ folks have shown that they will vote for a straight white male candidate. It was only when we had a woman (evil, sellout, etc.) that people stayed home. I remember when I was campaigning for Obama and talked to a staunch democratic woman in VA who said she would have to stay home. She wouldn't vote Republican, but she could not vote for a black man.

This is white privilege. White male privilege. When people think of who is presidential, historically, it's a white male. It's what is comfortable.

And so, for some people, Bernie speaks to them in part because he is a straight white male, and his message appeals to straight white males first and foremost, with women, minorities and LGBTQ folk giving him some thought, because they are used to accepting a straight white male.

I'm not saying that there are no LGBTQ, or women, or minorities who support Sanders. But I believe they are not the bulk of his supporters. LGBTQ/women/minorities make up about 40% of the Democratic party. But I'm not seeing those percentages at his gatherings.

So: that's my theory. Bernie Sanders appeals to straight white male Democrats with the same numbers as Trump's straight white male Republicans. And it's because we just had a black president, and even though he was a damned good president, people (straight white males) are ready to go back to what is familiar.

I'm not sure what needs to be done about it. Well actually, I am. We are going to need a straight white male winning the Democratic primary if we're going to have any chance of beating Trump. So folks, if you don't like Bernie, find another strong, straight, white male candidate. Or we lose.

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Arrow 13 replies Author Time Post
Reply I have this theory. (Original post)
qwlauren35 Jun 2018 OP
radical noodle Jun 2018 #1
Generic Brad Jun 2018 #3
radical noodle Jun 2018 #4
qwlauren35 Jun 2018 #6
radical noodle Jun 2018 #8
qwlauren35 Jun 2018 #9
Crutchez_CuiBono Jun 2018 #2
qwlauren35 Jun 2018 #7
smirkymonkey Jun 2018 #5
pnwmom Jun 2018 #10
qwlauren35 Jun 2018 #11
pnwmom Jun 2018 #13
treestar Jun 2018 #12

Response to qwlauren35 (Original post)

Tue Jun 12, 2018, 10:49 PM

1. If a straight white male is the backlash from Obama,

then think what the backlash from trump will be. It won't be a straight white male.

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Response to radical noodle (Reply #1)

Tue Jun 12, 2018, 10:59 PM

3. I'm hoping the backlash will be sanity

I am weary of this debacle.

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Response to Generic Brad (Reply #3)

Tue Jun 12, 2018, 11:03 PM

4. Amen!

But I think we may have to throw about 30 million people into the ocean to regain sanity.

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Response to radical noodle (Reply #1)

Tue Jun 12, 2018, 11:16 PM

6. I think you're wrong.

I truly do not believe that a minority or a woman will win the primary. I think a majority of Democrats are going to get on the "who is electable" bandwagon, and a straight white male will win the nomination. Because its safe.

Nobody in the Democratic party wants to lose the 2020 presidential race. We need someone who will get out the vote. We need someone who will not alienate anyone by being "different". (Or evil, or a sellout, or whatever else they called Hillary). Straight white males do not automatically alienate voters. Anyone else is "risky".

The polar opposite of Trump would be a thoughtful, progressive, educated candidate who can make promises that resonate with the Democratic base. He will probably be charismatic. Yes, he. He will probably be either a senator (probably white) or governor (white). In fact, I am sure that he will be a seasoned politician.

Kamala Harris is risky. It will NOT be her. Cory Booker has some skeletons that people will play up. It will not be him.

I don't think anyone knew that Clinton or Carter would win. But people seem to like governors. There are no black governors. Not even sure if there are Latino governors. Or women governors.

But yes, that's my theory. The opposite of Trump is someone with a brain instead of bucks. But the Democrats will not run any risks in 2020.


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Response to qwlauren35 (Reply #6)

Tue Jun 12, 2018, 11:43 PM

8. You may be right

But think there does seem to be a swing toward women since trump won. I don't have a pick at the moment. I'm concentrating on this fall.

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Response to radical noodle (Reply #8)

Tue Jun 12, 2018, 11:50 PM

9. At this point...

if I hear "Year of the Woman" again, I will scream. However, with that said, I think we are going to see an amazing surge of women in the political pipeline, at every level EXCEPT president. Look how much press the woman running for Governor is getting. The women's march has fueled an amazing pool of candidates, and I was very excited to hear about how they were being trained to run and win races. It would be breathtaking to see women dominate the the convention, with speech after speech, memorable, strong, poised for the future.

But not the president.

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Response to qwlauren35 (Original post)

Tue Jun 12, 2018, 10:56 PM

2. I sure don't blame Democrats

And you shouldn't either. We were robbed. How clear does it have to be.
I wasn't split on Bernie. I gave him my primary vote, but was just as thrilled w Hillary. Bernies history. The free college and healthcare dollars have been literally given away to people who don't need any more GD money.
Bernie primary, HRC general. That's how my vote went bc as an informed Democrat...that's what you do. I don't agree with your "we need a white guy" theory, but, it's interesting. Bernie or busters didn't lose the election. Cheaters won. We were poised for big things for the working man. AND a SC that was partial to the working man and woman too. They couldn't handle that, so they got foreign help, and cheated. End of story.

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Response to Crutchez_CuiBono (Reply #2)

Tue Jun 12, 2018, 11:43 PM

7. I am not trying to blame Democrats.

I'm just pointing out that a white male misogynist, racist, pig won in 2016, because white males wanted him. And it's going to take a strong white male Democratic candidate to win in 2020, because historic evidence shows that nobody stays at home *just because* the candidate is a white male.

The list of reasons why people would not vote for Hillary is as long as its disgusting. But I think it's safe to say that she could have never won any significant part of the white male Republican vote, and in fact, she did not win a significant part of the white female Republican vote. White women were not crossing over to vote for her.

In this upcoming election, *IF* the candidate is a white male, there will be crossover, and the white males who elected Trump but are now sick of Trump and embarrassed to have elected him may even CAMPAIGN to get him out.

If the candidate is NOT a white male, we will not see the crossover. Keep in mind, I'm not talking about the deplorables. I'm talking about the people who couldn't vote for a woman. The people who thought they were voting for the lesser of two evils. The people who thought they were making a sensible decision and who are still not convinced that Hillary would have been better. Those people will vote for the right white male candidate. And the race will not be close, and it will not be stolen.

If the candidate is NOT a white male, there is risk. And I don't think anyone wants to take risks in 2020.

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Response to qwlauren35 (Original post)

Tue Jun 12, 2018, 11:08 PM

5. As much as I hate to say it, I think you are right.

I would love to see someone like Kamala Harris run for president, but a female woman of color is going to be too polarizing in this current environment. I am afraid that we are going to have to run a straight, white male this time - at least at the top of the ticket - in order to win. We can't afford to lose the next election. Eventually, we will get there, but this is not the time. I think Joe Kennedy, Jr. is one of our best chances. Charismatic with the right politics and the right message.

The VP spot is up for grabs however. I still haven't decided upon that. I like Adam Schiff.

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Response to qwlauren35 (Original post)

Wed Jun 13, 2018, 12:29 AM

10. Hillary won 2.9 million more votes than DT, and only about 70K less than Obama.

She would have won except for vote suppression, Comey's actions, and Russian meddling -- any of which by itself could have flipped 80K votes.

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Response to pnwmom (Reply #10)

Wed Jun 13, 2018, 09:34 AM

11. But do you see the backlash?

In so many ways, Trump had the straight white male Republicans eating out of his hand.

And Bernie has captured the hearts of a significant number of white male Democrats.

Whoever wants to win has to win states, not just voters. Some states are virtually lily white in their voter base. And I believe that they want a straight white male candidate.

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Response to qwlauren35 (Reply #11)

Wed Jun 13, 2018, 01:48 PM

13. Yeah. But I also see the Russian meddling and the voter suppression.

Anyone who thinks the Russians and GOP couldn't have figured out an issue to attack Bernie on that would have been as effective as the email attack wasn't paying attention. Being male and white wouldn't have saved him.

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Response to qwlauren35 (Original post)

Wed Jun 13, 2018, 10:04 AM

12. I was thinking that. Unfortunate as it is

Biden is old but so is Dotard, and Biden is still smart. He is that kind of "equal" to Donald and has enough foreign policy credibility to fix what the Dotard messed up and the personality to go toe to toe with the Dotard. Maybe one term. Have a good Veep to be the candidate for 2024.

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